War With Apple Will Push Google to $300 [View article]
'the long term survival rate for Pancreatic cancer is 0%.' In the long run we are all dead - John Maynard Keynes.
Steve Jobs will stay with Apple for as long as he is healthy and getting great designs out interests him. In the meantime, just in case, Tim Cook received a bonus of $5m and $17m in restricted stock to keep him at Apple for the next 2 years, for the way he ran the company while Jobs was absent. Over 6 months the price surged around 70%, so who knows, maybe the stock will head north when Jobs retires from day to day.
Is Apple Really the Fourth Most Valuable Company in the U.S.? [View article]
Last quarter Microsoft showed its first revenue growth in a year (+4.3% when deferred Windows 7 revenue is taken out). Apple has been growing through the recession and last quarter revenue was +32% YOY. Gross Margin was 40.9%. iPhone sales, which now drive much of the profit growth, were up 90% YOY. Mac desktop sales were up 62%. Those are the highlights but if you look at the product revenue figures, they are all positive. It is now launching the iPad into the PC marketplace where it holds under 4% worldwide and any kind of reasonable sales will add another multi-billion dollar product to the lineup.
Why compare Apple to Dell which managed $9 million on sales of consumer PCs and whose profits have been dropping for some time?
Given the rapid growth of Apple, it is likely to overtake Microsoft's revenue this year unless Microsoft's sales to business really pick up - explored in more detail in lowendmac.com/nash/10t... . If Apple's Gross Margin stays around 40% the market cap is likely to exceed Microsoft's too, and unless the market considers MSFT overvalued, Apple's market cap in 1 year could well be over $225 billion.
Apple vs. Adobe Flash War: Winners and Losers [View article]
Until Flash works well on the vast majority of smartphones, it is at risk. All Adobe has managed to produce since the iPhone launched, nearly 3 years ago, is beta versions and Flash Lite and given its track record for quality on systems other than Windows, the chance of Flash becoming an interoperable standard is not good.
Apple revenue was up over 32% YOY ($15.68bn) in the December quarter. Microsoft had a good December quarter too with revenue +4.3% YOY ($17.31bn, after Windows 7 prepays removed) to recover from 3 quarters with negative YOY. However the gap between Microsoft revenue and Apple revenue has been narrowing for over a year and unless Microsoft starts seeing stronger business sales, Apple will probably overtake Microsoft in the next 2 quarters. If Apple can maintain a Gross Margin close to the 40.9% of the December quarter, it will overtake Microsoft's market cap too. The only question is when? I look at this more closely in lowendmac.com/nash/10t...
Flash works well on one platform - Windows. While that accounted for nearly all web access, putting less effort into OS X and Linux was understandable. The iPhone however has been out for nearly 3 years and in that time, all Adobe has made available for cellphones is Flash Lite and beta of Flash. With all the delay on cellphones and the quality of Flash on OS X and the delay in bringing the Creative Suite to OS X (where it earns approx. 50% of its profits), does Adobe really expect Apple to wait its turn?
A major issue here is the slowness of Adobe, in realising that mobile is a new game and that Apple is the frontrunner.
Windows Phone: Microsoft's Window of Opportunity [View article]
"Developers, Developers, Developers" (Steve Ballmer). Where will Microsoft find them for Windows Phone 7 ? As I discuss elsewhere lowendmac.com/nash/10t..., Apple will sell 40-50 million iPhones in 2010, RIM similar numbers, Android is well established in the US consumer market and Nokia's figures rebounded last quarter in the international market. Microsoft will maybe sell 10 million Windows Mobile licenses for this Fiscal Year for 3rd or 4th place in most important consumer markets. That will attract few developers and few apps.
If Microsoft really wants a mobile business, it needs to concentrate on corporates.
Android phones have yet to show they can compete successfully when they sell on the same carriers as iPhone. As Apple only seems to be interested in the GSM market, which is much larger than the CDMA market, Android should be able to flourish on Verizon and Sprint until they can support the standard GSM iPhone. This naturally means Verizon is unlikely to see the iPhone soon - for a more detailed discussion see my article lowendmac.com/nash/09t...
Apple vs. Microsoft Over the Past 20 Years [View article]
Apple revenue is poised to overtake Microsoft revenue probably in the next 2 quarters. Microsoft had a very good December quarter with $17.31bn (after Windows 7 prepays removed) +4.3% YOY but Apple had an excellent quarter $15.68bn +32.9% YOY. The revenue gap has been dropping for over a year and Microsoft needs stronger business sales to stay ahead. See my article lowendmac.com/nash/10t...
If Microsoft falls behind its longtime rival it could help accelerate the shift to Apple products in the consumer market but business will continue to be a Microsoft stronghold for the foreseeable future. When Steve Jobs leaves Apple it will be a great loss but his skills are largely replaceable - just not by one person, see lowendmac.com/nash/09t... In the meantime Apple has a very strong product portfolio and probably pipeline too, so the earnings growth estimates (judging by last quarter) could be quite conservative.
Intel Making Apple's ARM Chips Will Leave Samsung Behind [View article]
Apple is moving from Samsung - see today's reports of TSMC starting A6X sample production in March. Paul Otellini is on his way out and by the time the new CEO takes over, Intel will know how successful Windows 8 on tablets is.
There is no good reason why Apple shouldn't be the largest US company by market cap. Looking at the results for the last quarter, the worst figures were for the iPod - a 1% decline in units and 12% YOY revenue growth.
This quarter will see the iPad adding to growth ($1bn sales ?) along with refreshed iPhones and MacBook Pros adding to the revenue. Apple should certainly overtake Microsoft (see my January article lowendmac.com/nash/10t... ).
The real question is what happens when more and more corporates build their mobile computing strategy around the iPhone and iPad?
Betting on Android over iPhone Is Blind Reasoning [View article]
@Davewmart The iPhone is 2.5 years old. If it follows the path of the iPod, as it has so far, cheaper iPhones will be launched in the next few years to make it difficult for competitors like Android to offer as attractive an ecosystem.
The App Store is 1.5 years old.The apps are free or cheap compared to how much people are used to paying for equivalent software on a phone,PC or handheld game console.
Few look at phone contract tie ins - people are used to paying the number of dollars for the level of minutes, texts and data they want on a carrier that covers their area.
People buy perceived value and many see the iPhone + App Store as better value than their current phone and that is why the iPhone is doing so well in Europe. Blackberry and Nokia are its rivals there not Android. The iPhone already has 40% of the smartphone market in France and, once the exclusive contracts in other countries end, will increase share in those too.
In the US, the first real test for Android will be: can it successfully go head to head with iPhone on AT&T? Or even attract more new users to Verizon than AT&T gets?
When Will Apple Overtake Microsoft? [View article]
Apple will almost certainly pass Microsoft in revenue this quarter. Apart from $1bn+ in iPad revenue, the MacBook Pro range has been refreshed for the first time in nearly a year, which will drive laptop revenue up. If the new iPhone is widely available in June, sales of handsets should be up too.
As I wrote in January in 'Apple will become bigger than Microsoft in 2010', bit.ly/7pyzen it will be passing Microsoft within six months. Obviously some of the revenue predictions in that article were out, but the trend line was clear.
Will Apple's Market Cap Surpass Microsoft's? [View article]
The revenue gap between Microsoft and Apple will drop to around $1bn this quarter (MSFT reports Thursday). This gap has been narrowing since the December 2008 quarter (see my January article lowendmac.com/nash/10t... ). As the iPad should generate $1bn this quarter and the refreshed iPhones and MacBook Pros another sales surge, Apple should overtake Microsoft this quarter.
Unless Microsoft manages to establish a 7 mobile platform on smartphones and tablets, it will progressively be limited to the still lucrative corporate computing ghetto.
Apple Goes After HTC in Lawsuit Over iPhone Patents [View article]
'This is not the first time Apple has gone after a mobile phone competitor. It is involved in similar patent litigation with Nokia (NOK). That lawsuit is more about Apple trying to get Nokia to license its patents.'
Nokia filed suit against Apple when Apple refused to license some of Nokia's patents on higher than usual royalties (Nokia had agreed to license those patents on Fair, Reasonable and Non-Discriminatory terms to any cellphone maker). Apple then filed suit against Nokia alleging patent infringement. One view of those legal actions is that Nokia wants to cross-license Apple's patents and is trying to find enough leverage.
Apple has yet to suggest it will license patents to Nokia or HTC.
How Loss of iPhone Exclusivity Could Impact AT&T Stock [View article]
Judging from Apple's comments to the French courts and Tim Cook's comments at Goldman Sachs there are many markets where Apple prefers to have non exclusive iPhone agreements. This is easy when all carriers are on GSM networks.
With both Verizon and Sprint tied to CDMA for mobile voice, a standard both are moving away from, the iPhone is unlikely to be on either before their next generation networks are widely available - Apple avoids supporting legacy standards.
If Congress mandates a limited period of exclusivity for handsets, then the iPhone can always move to T-Mobile, which Apple works with in other markets such as Germany, Austria etc. I discuss this in more detail in lowendmac.com/nash/09t...
War With Apple Will Push Google to $300 [View article]
In the long run we are all dead - John Maynard Keynes.
Steve Jobs will stay with Apple for as long as he is healthy and getting great designs out interests him. In the meantime, just in case, Tim Cook received a bonus of $5m and $17m in restricted stock to keep him at Apple for the next 2 years, for the way he ran the company while Jobs was absent. Over 6 months the price surged around 70%, so who knows, maybe the stock will head north when Jobs retires from day to day.
Is Apple Really the Fourth Most Valuable Company in the U.S.? [View article]
Why compare Apple to Dell which managed $9 million on sales of consumer PCs and whose profits have been dropping for some time?
Given the rapid growth of Apple, it is likely to overtake Microsoft's revenue this year unless Microsoft's sales to business really pick up - explored in more detail in lowendmac.com/nash/10t... . If Apple's Gross Margin stays around 40% the market cap is likely to exceed Microsoft's too, and unless the market considers MSFT overvalued, Apple's market cap in 1 year could well be over $225 billion.
Apple vs. Adobe Flash War: Winners and Losers [View article]
Apple Market Cap [View article]
I look at this more closely in lowendmac.com/nash/10t...
Adobe Strikes Back [View article]
Flash works well on one platform - Windows. While that accounted for nearly all web access, putting less effort into OS X and Linux was understandable. The iPhone however has been out for nearly 3 years and in that time, all Adobe has made available for cellphones is Flash Lite and beta of Flash. With all the delay on cellphones and the quality of Flash on OS X and the delay in bringing the Creative Suite to OS X (where it earns approx. 50% of its profits), does Adobe really expect Apple to wait its turn?
A major issue here is the slowness of Adobe, in realising that mobile is a new game and that Apple is the frontrunner.
Windows Phone: Microsoft's Window of Opportunity [View article]
If Microsoft really wants a mobile business, it needs to concentrate on corporates.
Can Google Swallow Apple? [View article]
Apple vs. Microsoft Over the Past 20 Years [View article]
If Microsoft falls behind its longtime rival it could help accelerate the shift to Apple products in the consumer market but business will continue to be a Microsoft stronghold for the foreseeable future. When Steve Jobs leaves Apple it will be a great loss but his skills are largely replaceable - just not by one person, see lowendmac.com/nash/09t...
In the meantime Apple has a very strong product portfolio and probably pipeline too, so the earnings growth estimates (judging by last quarter) could be quite conservative.
Intel Making Apple's ARM Chips Will Leave Samsung Behind [View article]
Apple to $500 [View article]
This quarter will see the iPad adding to growth ($1bn sales ?) along with refreshed iPhones and MacBook Pros adding to the revenue. Apple should certainly overtake Microsoft (see my January article lowendmac.com/nash/10t... ).
The real question is what happens when more and more corporates build their mobile computing strategy around the iPhone and iPad?
Betting on Android over iPhone Is Blind Reasoning [View article]
The iPhone is 2.5 years old. If it follows the path of the iPod, as it has so far, cheaper iPhones will be launched in the next few years to make it difficult for competitors like Android to offer as attractive an ecosystem.
The App Store is 1.5 years old.The apps are free or cheap compared to how much people are used to paying for equivalent software on a phone,PC or handheld game console.
Few look at phone contract tie ins - people are used to paying the number of dollars for the level of minutes, texts and data they want on a carrier that covers their area.
People buy perceived value and many see the iPhone + App Store as better value than their current phone and that is why the iPhone is doing so well in Europe. Blackberry and Nokia are its rivals there not Android. The iPhone already has 40% of the smartphone market in France and, once the exclusive contracts in other countries end, will increase share in those too.
In the US, the first real test for Android will be: can it successfully go head to head with iPhone on AT&T? Or even attract more new users to Verizon than AT&T gets?
When Will Apple Overtake Microsoft? [View article]
As I wrote in January in 'Apple will become bigger than Microsoft in 2010', bit.ly/7pyzen it will be passing Microsoft within six months. Obviously some of the revenue predictions in that article were out, but the trend line was clear.
Now to see if Apple will sell 100 million OS X machines in 2010 see lowendmac.com/nash/10t...
Will Apple's Market Cap Surpass Microsoft's? [View article]
Unless Microsoft manages to establish a 7 mobile platform on smartphones and tablets, it will progressively be limited to the still lucrative corporate computing ghetto.
Apple Goes After HTC in Lawsuit Over iPhone Patents [View article]
Nokia filed suit against Apple when Apple refused to license some of Nokia's patents on higher than usual royalties (Nokia had agreed to license those patents on Fair, Reasonable and Non-Discriminatory terms to any cellphone maker). Apple then filed suit against Nokia alleging patent infringement. One view of those legal actions is that Nokia wants to cross-license Apple's patents and is trying to find enough leverage.
Apple has yet to suggest it will license patents to Nokia or HTC.
How Loss of iPhone Exclusivity Could Impact AT&T Stock [View article]
With both Verizon and Sprint tied to CDMA for mobile voice, a standard both are moving away from, the iPhone is unlikely to be on either before their next generation networks are widely available - Apple avoids supporting legacy standards.
If Congress mandates a limited period of exclusivity for handsets, then the iPhone can always move to T-Mobile, which Apple works with in other markets such as Germany, Austria etc. I discuss this in more detail in lowendmac.com/nash/09t...