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Tim Nash

 
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  • Apple: Time To Take Over The Game Console Market [View article]
    "You can't just port something by snapping your fingers."
    I spent 15 years working with major manufacturers on porting software to a wide range of platforms. So I do have a good working knowledge of what's involved.
    "You have to have hardware that's capable of running the gaming engine of the port.By all accounts, the A7 chip (while a huge advance for mobile computing) isn't going to be anywhere near on par with what's in the PS4 or Xbox One "
    As the Apple TV+ will be plugged in all the time, as I mentioned in the article, it can use an A7 with a higher clock rate - it isn't restricted to mobile performance. At this stage it has to support the games engines (and the porting has started for some of them) and offer better performance than the PS3 and Xbox360 because thats where the majority of the market for AAA and console titles still is. Then when the games publishers feel there is a large enough market, they will start porting their titles to maximise their profits.

    " Providing a 2-3 year window of support (that's really what it is) is a fraction of the lifetime of a console, which typically runs 5-10 years."
    What really counts is sales of the platform and the costs of porting and marketing your game on it.
    Jul 3 02:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time To Take Over The Game Console Market [View article]
    "developers can maximise profits"
    This is why there are fewer and fewer exclusives for a console from 3rd party developers. They may launch exclusively on one console, but to maximise profits, will port to the other and later to PCs. This is also why 3rd party developers will port to the Apple TV+ once they feel the sales numbers and performance are there.

    "Good luck trying to get a first gen iPad or an iPhone 3G to run 'more smoothly and beautifully' the latest apps with iOS7."
    The article is based on a 64 bit A7. Given it is now likely to launch this holiday season, it will probably be built around a version of the iPhone 6 chip with iOS8. Apple has shown with the iPhone, it is able to support at least 2 previous generations well and if people want to upgrade, then old Apple TV+s will still have resale value like other Apple hardware and with only one new Apple TV+ released every year, it won't suffer from the fragmentation problem of the PC gaming market.
    Jul 2 09:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time To Take Over The Game Console Market [View article]
    6 years ago Nintendo was the most profitable of the console makers. It has lost money for the last 2 years because Apple and Android took most of their market away. Apple, by the way, is already a gaming giant but it doesn't yet compete in this area.

    It may well take 4-5 years for Apple to take over the profits from this too but neither Sony nor Microsoft can afford to update their systems every year. With Apple its a byproduct of their iPhone/iPad chip improvements.
    Jul 1 08:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time To Take Over The Game Console Market [View article]
    As I have called this Apple Games TV, it is easy to overlook that this is a multi purpose home server and will sell for other reasons as well as gaming. So lets look at a possible marketing strategy:-
    1. Upgrade the current Apple TV with an A7 and keep the entry price of $99
    this can play all current iOS games and stream iTunes purchases
    2. Apple TV+ fusion drive at $399 (after the Xbox One price drop, this is the price point)
    capable of much more, see 'who will buy initially' in the main article. Unlike the Xbox and the PS4 it doesn't need AAA titles to launch and maintain sales.
    In Year 2, this can be priced at $299 and a new version, built around Apple's new ARM chip, priced at $399.
    We don't yet know what the performance will be but your suggestion "offer more of the same (ie. almost as good as PS3)" is unlikely, and the only real question is when the performance, with a yearly update, overtakes the AMD based consoles.

    In the 6 years since the App Store launch, iOS and Android have largely taken over the mobile/handheld gaming market and Nintendo is losing money. The iPod Touch alone has sold over 100M, DS type numbers.

    With Sony and Microsoft losing money on each console and Apple making money on each Apple TV and TV+ both Sony and Microsoft are ripe for disruption in this area.

    Since the margins for games publishers are better than on consoles they will port games as soon as the AppleTV+ suits their titles.
    Jul 1 04:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time To Take Over The Game Console Market [View article]
    For a blockbuster game like GTA to continue to sell in high numbers it needs to attract high numbers of more casual players. As neither the PS4 nor the Xbox One has yet sold in those quantities, it has to be available on the last generation too. The Apple Games TV can certainly offer at least as good performance as the last generation.

    Major 3rd party publishers like EA already have iOS teams because of the money in mobile gaming. Remember in the last 12 months Apple paid over $10B to publishers and much of that was for games. On top of that Google paid $5B and there was also ad revenue. Now that the games engines are being ported and, thru Metal, developers have better access to the graphics chips, this looks like being a large part of the future of home gaming and that is why Google too has announced plans in this area.
    Jun 30 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Latent Rates Of Revenue Growth [View article]
    Your usual good and realistic article. If Apple leverages off games to expand the product range of Apple TV in time for the holiday season, that too should boost revenues in FY2015 - see my article
    http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 29 06:27 AM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time For iPad SuperMini And Killing The iPod [View article]
    In the article, I suggest the iPod Touch becomes an iPad (SuperMini or Nano or whatever) so that will survive and be upgraded and should have a 128Gb version for nearly the same capacity as a Classic.
    Mar 27 06:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time For iPad SuperMini And Killing The iPod [View article]
    Making the iPod Touch into an iPad is a way of increasing the future return from the iPod product line, rather than watching the numbers continue to deteriorate.
    Mar 22 07:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time For iPad SuperMini And Killing The iPod [View article]
    As I put in the last para, I believe making the iPod Touch into an iPad will be revenue neutral or slightly positive so the $2B+ will be made but in a slightly different way.
    Mar 21 02:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time For iPad SuperMini And Killing The iPod [View article]
    From last quarter's numbers, the profit is largely if not wholly in the iPod Touch sales. That would be kept as a 4 inch iPad. With iPad marketing, I believe unit sales and hence revenue will increase (at least to current iPod levels).
    Mar 20 03:21 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time For iPad SuperMini And Killing The iPod [View article]
    I think the iPod will be killed in 2 stages. Firstly the iPod Touch will become the 4 inch iPad and a controller for the new Apple TV. Finally as you say, at the launch of iWearable(s), when Shuffle functionality can be part of the offering. Until the latter or both of these happen, iPods will be sold in ever decreasing numbers.
    Mar 20 03:14 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time For iPad SuperMini And Killing The iPod [View article]
    The suggested 128Gb version offers nearly the same capacity. The issue for a Classic user will be the price (roughly twice as much). So if Apple goes this route, suggest you buy a spare Classic before the stock disappears.
    Mar 19 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time For iPad SuperMini And Killing The iPod [View article]
    I am saying keep the iPod Touch...as the 4 inch iPad. That way it can be developed, ruggedized etc. The way the iPod numbers are going, the Touch will be buried too.
    Mar 19 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time For iPad SuperMini And Killing The iPod [View article]
    "The plus points for the iPod are in the commercial space where there is a very cheap way for business to use iOS designed software."
    The iPodTouch is currently the only iPod which runs iOS. That would be kept on as an iPad (SuperMini or whatever).
    Mar 19 10:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Time For iPad SuperMini And Killing The iPod [View article]
    "iPad means -> iPad optimized apps for larger screens.
    iPod means -> small iPhone optimized apps for small screens"
    No. Apps means going to the App Store and choosing what you want to download. We are not talking Android here.
    Mar 19 10:22 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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