Tim Plaehn

The 3 Wisemen: Silver, Sugar and Soybeans

Soybean planting is rapidly increasing in South America. Uruguay has gone from 4,000 hectares to 400,000 in 5 years. Argentina can produce huge amounts, however current government policies (increasing export taxes) has farmers up in arms. At some point that will settle out and more product will hit the market. The U.S. will become a minor player in soy production very quickly. The story for sugar could be similar. High prices will lead to huge increases in hectares planted, leading to boom/bust scenario. Only silver of the 3 listed has long term positive factors in regards to supply/demand.