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Tim Plaehn

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  • Q1 Results From The Silver Bay Realty REIT Experiment Still Leave Questions [View article]
    Ralph, thanks for the excellent analysis. It will be interesting to come back in a few quarters to see how the real SBY numbers stack up against your estimates.
    May 17 04:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look Out For Lower Q2 Dividend From Northern Tier Energy [View article]
    Al, thanks for reading my articles. I am not trying to move stock prices, just give some facts and a little opinion.
    May 17 04:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look Out For Lower Q2 Dividend From Northern Tier Energy [View article]
    There are quite a few MLPs that depend on a single plant or refinery. There are 3 in refining, 3 in fertilizer and 1 chemical producer. They all use the same sell everything you make distribute all the cash business model. Buy a couple and diversify.
    May 17 04:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q1 Results From The Silver Bay Realty REIT Experiment Still Leave Questions [View article]
    Right now putting a value on the assets is pretty straight forward. Since the company is so new, I am working with net investments plus cash on the balance sheet. It will again be interesting in future quarters if the company starts to put an estimated value on the properties owned compared to the purchase prices. There may very well be some equity already built in due to both the renovations and generally increasing prices.

    I think the company publishes an average size of the homes. If that is by location, you could estimate values based on an average per square foot for say Phoenix. I have not dug that deep yet.

    I am thinking that at some point in the stock market cycle, SBY could become very cheap in relation to the value of the homes it owns.
    May 16 01:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q1 Results From The Silver Bay Realty REIT Experiment Still Leave Questions [View article]
    Small Fry, that may very well be the case. However, if they keep buying homes, those expenses will continue. These questions will be answered over time as the company evolves.

    Most REITs strive to continue growing by acquiring new properties. I do not think that the company will just stop buying at some point in time. At that point, there would need to be a very high dividend yield to be attractive to investors.
    May 16 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q1 Results From The Silver Bay Realty REIT Experiment Still Leave Questions [View article]
    Unfortunately, turning $1,100 per month rents into big business means you have to rent out the first 3,000 homes just to cover the monthly corporate expenses.
    May 15 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inergy-Crestwood Merger Could Be Big Winner For Income Investors [View article]
    Bruce, very valid points. From your arguments, I see that the new NRGY team needs to prove they can cost effectively grow the business. It will be an interesting story to watch.
    May 14 11:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Inergy-Crestwood Merger Could Be Big Winner For Income Investors [View article]
    TMG, your point is one reason I recommend for new investors to wait until the dust settles to pick up some units. I do think this merger will work out well over the next 3 - 4 years.
    May 13 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PetroLogistics Pops Dividend: 10% Full-Year Yield Is Possible [View article]
    Douglas, I agree with your assessment. I think if you buy PDH on the dips, in most years you will get 10% or so in distributions.

    I am mostly surprised at the lack of price reaction to the Q1 dividend. I expected to see some sort of pop. I think this MLP is still very much in the weeds for income investors.
    May 7 03:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PetroLogistics Pops Dividend: 10% Full-Year Yield Is Possible [View article]
    Jimmy, the proceeds of the senior notes were used to pay off other debts. There is not sustainable dividend for PDH, the investment is very much a quarter to quarter, see what happens proposition.
    May 7 03:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy And LinnCo Increase Value To Investors With Monthly Dividends [View article]
    Michael, I have previously covered the fact that the E&P MLP companies must constantly acquire new assets to both cover the depletion of current assets and to grow their businesses. If Linn Energy reaches a point that it cannot buy assets at a cash flow positive price the whole thing tumbles down.

    I am pretty sure the same thing would happen if the other E&P companies stopped drilling new wells. The difference with the MLP approach is that they buy wells someone else has drilled.
    May 7 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy And LinnCo Increase Value To Investors With Monthly Dividends [View article]
    Today's sell off seems to be the result of some short sellers getting the ear of a Barron's reporter. In the article the prediction of a lower share price is based on a dividend cut and a failure of the BRY merger. If the merger is approved the shares will recover to the mid $40's and the shorts will again be eating crow. Also, it will be much tougher to short LINE and LNCO when the monthly dividends start so I think a few of the hedge funds are trying to push the price over a cliff now.
    May 6 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly Capital Makes Shrewd Move To Boost Future Interest Income [View article]
    RS, I always read your article with interest. I am mostly on the fence concerning where things will go from here for NLY. I think the low mortgage / MBS rates will still cause earnings problems for a few more quarters.
    May 6 12:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Q1 Results For American Capital Agency Show Mortgage REIT Dangers [View article]
    From what I understood from the conference call, the spreads are locked in for the dollar roll trades, even though the MBS values fall and affect the book value.
    May 5 01:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy And LinnCo Increase Value To Investors With Monthly Dividends [View article]
    Gary, the press release says: "The transaction, which is structured as a stock-for-stock merger of Berry with LinnCo followed by the acquisition of the Berry assets by LINN" This Berry investors get LNCO shares and LINE gets Berry's assets in exchange for LINE shares traded to LinnCo. Clear as mud, no?
    Apr 26 05:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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