Tim Plaehn

Newsletter provider, dividend investing, master limited partnerships, reits
Tim Plaehn
Newsletter provider, dividend investing, master limited partnerships, REITs
Contributor since: 2007
Company: Investors Alley
The crack spread has continued to tighten in Q1, so the next quarter's results may be even worse. There will be an opportunity to get in even cheaper.
Working on that, trying to reach out to the company.
Thanks Gotz, you nailed the important numbers except for one. Current dividend rate takes just $77 million per year. I expect another 8% to 10% boost later this year.
Don't put so much faith/emphasis on earnings per share. Companies that have lots of depreciable assets like AYR have lots of not cash depreciation on the income statement. I think cash flow is a better metric on which to judge the company's value.
The Alerian Infrastructure Index -AMZI- now yields 10.3%. In the current market I can't tell the difference between irrational unit pricing and actual potential for distribution cuts.
Out of the 104 MLP or related company Q4 distributions announced so far, about 40% have been increases and there has been 9 reductions. Most of the reductions have come from either upstream or variable pay MLPs. To date, the only cut from a larger infrastructure company has been the KMI cut.
I have never heard management discuss any currency exposure, so I think all contracts must be in USD.
Armstrong stated a worse case of 3% to 5% of EBITDA for the year. But BK's could also be an opportunity if judges let producers change gathering and transport contracts, where PAA could actually add business due to its extensive network.
Don't believe any refining stock article where the changes in crack spreads are not discussed. Q1 is looking worse than Q4.
Yes a bit. I don't think (and this is what management hinted at) it will happen. PAGP is mostly controlled by big money entities and not the PAA management team. Also, PAGP has a large market cap, so absorbing it into the MLP would probably not be of benefit to the MLP unit holders.
Thanks for the additional and useful color.
My average cost on PAGP is much higher, I bought some today to average down, average up yield. Will continue to do so on a regular basis if the share price stays down.
Flat distributions at a 16% yield is a pretty good wage to earn while waiting for distribution growth to resume.
After a quick look, I don't see a lot on DCF cash flow in general. Even mlpdata.com doesn't have a DCF breakdown.
I think they still have some levers to pull. The GP is taking in about 1/3 of the distributions, so I would first expect an IDR reduction. A moderate (say 25%) distribution reduction would probably not be a bad thing, but who knows how the market would react. Drive the unit price to zero?
NGL owns an interesting set of assets and fills some nice niches. They just need to get through this period of irrational behavior. I saw this line from a fund manager, which I think pretty much covers it:
"Predicting irrational behavior is a fundamentally flawed exercise."
That manager was one of the founders of NGL.
Income focused investors should set aside a portion of dividends for reinvestment. If you are earning 7%, live on 5% and reinvest 2%. That will almost ensure a growing dividend income stream.
Bear markets and corrections happen. Companies are built for the long run and should be managed as such. Traders have the attention span of a gnat. Don't be gnat!
Investors should want to buy low and sell high. Market emotions drive the majority to do the opposite. Don't be a gnat!
I guess I was assuming there would be one. I don't see anything either. May have to dig into the 10Q, which will need to wait to the weekend. They did lower 2016 EBITDA guidance by 10% to $450 million.
The current quarter, Jan-Mar is NGL's Q4 and should be their best due to the propane sales.
I will catch the earnings call tomorrow.
Love the title. Nails the whole agency mREIT story. Who can lose investor money the slowest while maintaining management fees?
Michael, nice article on an under appreciated MLP. It wouldn't kill me if PBFX could move back up into the $20's.
I'm a little impartial. Made a lot of money last year swinging WNR with the crack spreads. About 40% total over three trades.
For Q4 and so far this year business and profits are very different for the refiners. Do not project 2015 into 2016. I will have some analysis up later this month when I get a little more data.
LOL!!! WNR made the smart move. It's a pretty good company and deserves a look.
Thanks for the mention. ALDW and CVRR investors should take note.
A flattening yield curve with the Fed raising rates and long rates staying flat will destroy the profitability of the heavily leveraged mREITs. It's a matter of survival now until long rates increase enough to allow these companies to generate a reasonable yield spread.
Nice call on the BV. Too bad it keeps declining. BV was $25.74 a year ago. Now $22.59, down 12% YoY.
Actually, every article is reviewed by an editor and accepted, rejected or sent back for clarifications/correct...
Those are pretty much the unanswerable questions. Kind of like what happens if crude moves to $20 or $80 by the end of the year.
If you buy NGLS now or in the recent past, there will not be much in the way of taxable income. More likely a transfer of capital losses until the TRGP position value exceeds the NGLS cost basis.
I haven't taken a close look at those 2. Will do so.
Rich Kinder owns about 1/3 of the company. Nothing is going to change. I think paying down debt is what management does when it doesn't have any other way to make money.
Yes, just had a conversation with one of the management team this week. Similar type of compelling value.
They did last year, but refiner profits come from the spread between crude and fuels prices. The Q4 spread was very tight compared to first three quarters of 2015 and all of 2014.
ALDW, CVRR and NTI pay distributions based on profits for the quarter. CLMT does not shy from borrowing money to pay its level distribution. Q4 refiner profits will be way down.
Every stock in the energy sector sold off, some worse than KMI. So trying to make a case as to why Kinder dropped is most likely fallable thinking. Kinder will never make a serious dent in their debt. If they can grow EBITDA without significantly adding to the debt, that will be fine.