Tim Plaehn

Housing Rebound: Why It Could Take 20 Years

The last up turn in California went from the the early 90's until 2006. I can live with 15 years of price gains.

Mortgages: More Support for Principal Reduction

Bad math. If a trillion in mortgages is 20% underwater that is $200 billion upside down. Still a pretty big number and the banks are holding $800 billion in real estate (today's value???). Easier to give across the board principal cuts on all fannie & freddie backed mortgages originated in 2004 thru 2006. Reduce all government backed mortgages by 20% and the bond pools take the same haircut. Instant equity for a huge number of homeowners and less chance they will walk away. Also, lower payments and a chance to refi the mortgage at current rates.

Has the Housing Market Hit Bottom?

Good article. I have been watching the CA housing market and home sales numbers have been increasing for well over a year, and the prices just now seem to be bottoming.

The interesting side to watch is the supply side. Foreclosure inventory against new homes. In 2008 California new homebuilders started only 33k single family homes. In the worst years of the 90's, they built at least 85k. The state's population has increased by 6 million since 1995.Existing home inventory has fallen to less than a 4 month supply in the state. Will the next surge of foreclosures coming to market be readily absorbed by increased demand, or will prices start to fall again?

Case-Shiller Home Prices Rise in May, But Don't Read Too Much into This

The Case Shiller data is for May and California had significant price improvement in June also. It will be interesting to see next month's numbers from C-S.

A Look Inside the June Existing Home Sales Report

Followup: At the current rate of price increases it will be only 2 to 3 months before we have a year over year price increase. Then the recovery horse will be out of the barn!

A Look Inside the June Existing Home Sales Report

I guess he missed the place in the report where median and mean sales prices have increased for 2 months in a row now!

Is Raser Technologies a Bargain, Or Just Cheap?

Razor has been an interesting story, but do they ever plan to generate any profits? The company continues to seem more like a money hole than an investment.

Detroit, Las Vegas and the 2000 Losers Club

Today's existing housing numbers put this thesis to rest. Sales and prices are on the increase. Detroit has serious economic issues aside from the national picture and Las Vegas was the poster child of over building. The rest of the country is starting to recover.

What Happened to Omega Navigation?

Shippers generally pay cash out of their free cash flow, not net income. The net can be significantly understated due to a lot of depreciation. Many shippers are yielding in the mid to high teens now, that is those that actually pay a dividend.

ONAV has plenty of cash flow to support the dividend. They probably had to suspend due to breaking bank covenants concerning asset values. After they pay down some debt the payout will start up again.

The Ramifications of Growing Global Gas Guzzlers

Looks like a good time to be selling cars in India and China!

I took a look at the data and I do hate slanted reporting, so I will slant back. Cars averaged 22.5 mpg, but light trucks (includes most SUVs) average 18.0. Not to bad for the trucks.

Heavy trucks drove 8% of the miles but used 25% of the fuel. Get out of those mass-transit buses and back into your 20 mpg SUV!

It is difficult to believe that anyone believes that Americans will give up their cars, pickups and SUVs in mass and take the bus. Let politicians massively raise gas taxes and see how many of them have jobs after the next election.

Fractured Wall Street Fairy Tales #2: Awful News Is the Same as Good News

Tough to be short when the market is going up. Using leveraged ETFs like SKF and SRS as longer term trading holds is very dangerous business. Every single position listed is a short. I hope you do not actually have customers money invested this way. Maybe a few of your newsletter followers will go broke and give up also.

Despite U.S. Troubles, GM Thrives Abroad

GM is also selling cars like crazy in South America under the Chevrolet brand with rebranded Opels.

Argentina's Road to Ruin: How to Make Nothing Out of Everything

I live across the river from BA and find the ongoing political/economic story of Argentina like watching a very slow train wreck. The political system seems capable of just staving off massive collapse without reforms that would generate true growth. I wouldn't put a dime in Argentina when you have Brazil nearby with proven growth and a government that seems to understand.

Ag last year was terrible with no rain through out the entire summer. This winter the rains have been better (at least here in Uruguay). The regressive tax policies of the Kirchner's, especially the Mrs. have done more to affect farmers than the weather. When the new congress takes office in January things should get a little easier.

Exiting Meritage Homes: Increasing Inventory Is Supposed to Be Good News?

If, during normal times the economy can absorb 1.5 to 2 million homes each year, building 600k is like taking a million homes out of inventory each year. And homebuilders are selling the homes they build.

Crash and Burn for Phoenix Area Home Prices

The chart looks like it is trying to bottom to me.