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Tim Plaehn

 
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  • Crude Price Drilling Economics From The ONEOK Investors Conference [View article]
    Bruce, according to the management discussion, the costs depend on where in the plays a company drills and how many wells can be drilled from a single pad.
    Dec 6, 2014. 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking For Alpha Out Of The Large Cap MLPs - Part 1 [View article]
    Elliot,
    Thanks for the comment. I understand that AMJ has completely different tax consequences for investors, but it does provide a yield and growth rate that is handy for comparison.
    The EPD story is awesome, but I continue to think the unit price has gotten ahead of itself.
    The MWE story has been one of less than competitive DCF growth in relation to the capex spending. If you are right that the cash flow growth is still in the future, that is the type of alpha an MLP investor should be searching for.
    Dec 6, 2014. 10:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Looking For Alpha Out Of The Large Cap MLPs - Part 1 [View article]
    A couple of personal beliefs:
    I think crude has sold off too far. Natural well decline rates will fairly quickly bring supply in line with demand with just a small reduction in drilling activity.
    I like MLPs that have been growing distributions and the unit price has not followed the increase. I am taking moderate sized positions with plenty of dry powder if the MLP market corrects again/further.
    Dec 5, 2014. 10:49 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Price Drilling Economics From The ONEOK Investors Conference [View article]
    Building an inventory of drilling sites.
    Dec 5, 2014. 10:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedging Windfall Potential For Vanguard Natural Resources [View article]
    From David Merkel on his Aleph Blog:

    "Overall demand for crude hasn’t shifted, and neither has supply. Yes, there has been some buildup of inventories, and some key global players refuse to cut production in response to lower prices. But the sharpness of the price move feels more like some large player(s) who were relying on a higher oil price finally hit their “stop loss” point, and their risk control desk is closing out the trade.

    I could be wrong here, but paper barrels of oil trade more rapidly than physical shifts in net demand, and risk control and margin desks will force moves that are non-economic. Wait. Surviving is economic, even at the cost of forgoing potential profits."

    http://bit.ly/1FQM9y6
    Dec 4, 2014. 01:58 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ONEOK's Pain Will Turn Into A Gain Soon [View article]
    You wrote:

    "ONEOK Inc (NYSE:OKE) is a diversified energy company. Its business segments include ONEOK Partners; Natural Gas Distribution; and Energy Services."

    ONEOK divested itself months ago of the natural gas distribution and energy services businesses. The company is now a pure play GP on ONEOK Partners.
    Dec 4, 2014. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Refining In Danger Of Under Performance Again In Q4 [View article]
    You have to choose one or the other, but it seems with a refinery that the results would balance out pretty quickly. They don't sit on crude inventories for extended periods of time.
    Dec 4, 2014. 12:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BreitBurn Energy Partners' Crude-Focused Production Will Produce A Derivatives Value Windfall In Q4 [View article]
    I found it interesting that maturing hedges were costing BBEP money (although relatively small amounts) during the first three quarters.
    Dec 3, 2014. 05:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IPO Of Plains GP Holdings Offers Mind-Blowing Tax-Free Dividend Math [View article]
    I have been watching PAGP. Have a small position I would like to add to at these prices. It has just gotten cheap.
    Dec 2, 2014. 10:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedging Windfall Potential For Vanguard Natural Resources [View article]
    Chris,
    Thanks for the updates on your thoughts. I think you have some very valid points. So what comfort could an investor get from a large derivatives MTM gain in Q4?
    Dec 2, 2014. 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Linn Energy Post A Windfall Profit For Q4? [View article]
    Phil,

    Thanks for chipping in and sharing your knowledge. I and all readers here have much to learn in this new energy environment.
    Dec 2, 2014. 06:28 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedging Windfall Potential For Vanguard Natural Resources [View article]
    Chris,
    Thanks for the comments and help with the knowledge base.
    Dec 2, 2014. 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedging Windfall Potential For Vanguard Natural Resources [View article]
    It will be interesting to see how this works out.
    Dec 2, 2014. 06:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Hedging Windfall Potential For Vanguard Natural Resources [View article]
    If they cash out their hedges, they are just pulling ahead the downside protection, as long as the cash is held to supplement the cash flow from revenue sales. My point is that the hedges now with $67 oil are worth a lot more than they will be if oil recovers to say $80 in 2015.
    Dec 2, 2014. 06:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Linn Energy Post A Windfall Profit For Q4? [View article]
    At this point, whether or not Linn or the other upstream MLPs has nothing to do with the unit values. It is about the cash flow generated from commodity sales and realized derivatives gains. These companies continuously highlight their hedging practices to protect the distribution in times of energy price volatility.
    Dec 1, 2014. 05:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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