Tim Plaehn

Wheaton's Silver Lining

I have been watching SLW for 2 years and have traded in and out a few times. They just have not been able to bring in the growth in silver sales they have been projecting.

The business model is awesome but they have not had the growth in revenues and bottom line to justify the valuation.

A Complete Guide to Emerging Market ETFs

Nice overview. I was not aware of VWO as an alternative to EEM.

Mortgage Application Discussion Revisited

So the mortgage industry thinks they can get away with a 70 bp pop in rates and consumers call them on it. For housing to start any kind of recovery I think sub 5% mortgages can be a big help, but when the banks start to see refinance applications surge they cannot help themselves to not increase rates. If Fannie and Freddie are controlled by the feds and the major source of mortgage funding, it seems to me they would be helping the national economy by holding rates down until conditions improve.

Baltic Dry Index Now on 23-Day Winning Streak

BDI dropped sharply yesterday and futures were down also. Shipping prices driven primarily by China stocking up on cheap iron ore and coal.

Genco Shipping: Coming Out of Hibernation

CPLP and GMR are both tanker companies and tanker rates have fallen significantly since earlier this year. Dry bulk companies saw their rates and asset values fall at the end of 2008 and have been recovering. I do like tanker companies (own NAT and DHT) but I think the short term definitely favors the dry bulkers.

It is important in looking at shipping companies to find out what kind of shipping they do. Dry bulk, tanker and container are completely different and are affected by different factors. Don't be a Cramer and mix your shippers.

Baltic Dry Index Advances 24 Straight Days in a Row

Big disconnect today between the futures and the indexes. Capesize futures off $10k while the index added another 5%. May be a signal of softening dry bulk rates.

Baltic Dry Index Advances 24 Straight Days in a Row

The Capesize index jumped 18% yesterday providing most of the push for the BDI.

Shipping Outlook: No Good News on the Horizon

I track 42 U.S. exchange traded shipping stocks and the average return (equal weighted) year to date is +6.86% not including dividends. Dividends earned adds another 3.6%.

OSG is one of the worst performers, down 26% YTD, so a sell recommendation is a bit late to the party.

Housing Demand Is Back in San Jose

Q1 housing prices are old history. San Diego and Sacramento have also shown modest price increases over the last couple of months. With the stock market up 35% in the last 2 months, the 90% of folks still working are feeling more confidant about the future and see the tremendous value in current home prices.

Dow 6500 in 6 Months or Less?

Home prices did not fall 18% in 2008 then another 19% in the first quarter of 2009. The prices in the first quarter of 2009 were 19% lower than the 1st quarter of 2008.

BTW we are nearing the end of the 2nd quarter of 2009 and the housing numbers for the 1st quarter are old news. In the 1st quarter consumer sentiment was plunging, and the stock market was falling to 6500 (or close).

In the second quarter the stock market has gained 35%. Consumer sentiment is increasing and I think when the numbers come out, home prices will have stabilized.

Housing: 'We're About to Have a Big Problem'

As most of the country and especially commenters on this site are married to the paradigm that home prices will continue to fall. What if prices start to increase? How will the mindset of buyers, homeowners, construction companies change? Will someone with good credit walk away from his home if he starts to see the value increasing? Will homebuilders start to add jobs if they can sell more homes? Will real estate and economic "experts" be proven wrong once again? With Uncle Sam and the state of California giving buyers up to $18,000 to buy a home will sellers start to realize they can hold out for more money?
Think about how things would change if prices started to increase. I have already seen bumps in median prices in diverse locations such as San Diego, Sacramento and on this site today, Northern Virginia.

Faux Demand for Foreclosed Homes

Please explain to me how you can be cash flow negative on a rental home without a mortgage? Even a home with a 50% loan to current value mortgage should cash flow positive in the California rental market. I think these funds will make out like bandits over the next 3 to 5 years. The median selling price in the San Diego area has already increased $10k this year.

Vegas Property Prices: Looking for a Bottom

L-shaped recovery seems to be the buzz word for the constant pessimists. Now that the end of the world appears to not be coming in their lifetime, it would be a shame for some to make a decent return on their real estate.

Oil Recovers, But Where Are the Fundamentals?

I believe that oil has a un-natural support of $60 to $70. At this level the nationalized oil companies can support the revenues the owning governments need. I wrote about this in November: timplaehn.com/2008/11/.../
when Mexico hedged 100% of their 2009 production at $70.

Baltic Dry Index Up 11 Days in a Row: Should You Care?

Shipping rates are improving because users of commodities, primarily iron ore to China are realizing that low commodity prices plus reasonable shipping rates equals a very attractive landed cost. Low commodity prices are actually helping shipping costs at this time.