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Tim Plaehn  

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  • Argentina Takes Step To Take Over Oil Company YPF S.A. [View article]
    Later news has the different governments of Argentina holding 51%. The national gov would have 29% and the rest with the provinces. The Peterson Group - closely tied to the Madam President's family = would retain their current 30% or so. There would be a free float of about 20% of the company.

    The question is which shareholders give up the 51% with little or no compensation? And would anyone think any free cash flow would escape the government coffers? Doubtful.
    Apr 17, 2012. 08:27 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Argentina: Ready for a Rebound? [View article]
    I live across the river from Buenos Aires and I would not think of investing in Argentina. Any sector that shows reasonable profits will get hit by new taxes. The largest soybean producers are at something like a 90% marginal tax rate. 10 of 16 banks catering to high net worth investors are relocating their BA offices to Montevideo or Miami due to new taxes. The current government is not very business friendly, except for the President and her husband who owns half of Patagonia.
    May 31, 2010. 08:57 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baltic Dry Index Up 11 Days in a Row: Should You Care? [View article]
    Shipping rates are improving because users of commodities, primarily iron ore to China are realizing that low commodity prices plus reasonable shipping rates equals a very attractive landed cost. Low commodity prices are actually helping shipping costs at this time.
    May 16, 2009. 08:11 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look Who's Buying Natural Gas Now [View article]
    "and now has convinced itself the recession is over… despite the fact the White House’s chief economist does not expect positive job growth until 2010."

    Historically job growth does not resume until well after a recession ends (6 to 12 months) so both parts of the selected text above can be correct. Employers will not add employees until their businesses are growing again. Employment lags recovery.

    This article is well written and informative, but sounds like a short got burned over the last month.
    May 12, 2009. 09:36 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Pipeline Partners: A Painful Lesson in MLP Investing [View article]
    Very good analysis. I echo your thoughts on APL. In this market it is hard to tell if a company is really in trouble or just part of the general sell off. I was encouraged by the Q4 news.
    Mar 6, 2009. 08:48 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Inks Another Co-Development Deal - Will The Strategy Pay Off? [View article]
    Don't get so wound up. I am pretty sure no one is forcing you to buy LINE. I have made 20% twice so far this year buying and selling LNCO on the crude oil price swings. I can afford to hold some shares for the long term and will probably do a few more short term trades to boost the return.
    Mar 25, 2015. 09:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look For Share Price Gains When MLP GP Companies Announce Q4 Dividends [View article]
    OKS has a signficant exposure to NGL pricing, so there is some doubt whether the MLP and thus OKE will hit their distribution growth projections. I am in the camp that energy prices will recover quite a bit from current levels by the 2nd half of 2015, allowing Oneok to hit its projections.
    Jan 10, 2015. 02:17 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Explains Outlook After Distribution And Capex Spending Reductions [View article]
    I think recovery is a bit strong. I like growth from the new, much lower level.
    Jan 6, 2015. 10:14 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ship Finance Gets Its Christmas Present [View article]
    Recently they have been buying container transport ships. SFL seems to be very adept at finding the undervalued sectors of the shipping business.
    Dec 31, 2014. 02:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Price Drilling Economics From The ONEOK Investors Conference [View article]
    Building an inventory of drilling sites.
    Dec 5, 2014. 10:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overvalued Enterprise Products Partners Will Lag Peers For The Next Several Years [View article]
    Can you provide a reference to back up your assertion?
    Sep 16, 2014. 07:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Wrongly Undervaluing Kinder Morgan Energy Partners [View article]
    I was going to mention KMR, but ran out of words. Just kidding. KMR is a nice, alternative way in invest in KMP.
    Dec 26, 2013. 03:25 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy To Stay Ahead Of Refinery MLP Peers For Rest Of 2013 [View article]
    Phillip, I am not hard crunching numbers because there are too many possible variables. I look at a $0.65 second quarter distribution with the refinery closed for a month and tighter spreads than over the previous three quarters. However, NTI was able to maintain a higher spread than the other refining MLPs, quite possibly due to the company's multiple oil source channels. So unless there are drastic changes in the prices of oil, gasoline or diesel fuel, with full time production NTI should produce at least a $1 per quarter distribution. Some things work in their favor, it could be $1.25 or higher.
    Aug 29, 2013. 06:35 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy To Stay Ahead Of Refinery MLP Peers For Rest Of 2013 [View article]
    It is my opinion that the share prices of these variable distribution MLPs will cycle significantly. Picking tops and bottoms are tough for most, but there is no reason that NTI will stay down at the current price level. I expect the dividends to be between $2 and $3 for the second half, which is a pretty large spread and if the number falls near the higher end of the range, the stock price will get back close to $30.

    After reading a lot of MLP prospectii, I have noticed that the ownership and unit structures of these companies are almost always much more complicated than with corporations. The PIK example with NTI is a good example. This class of shares was issued so that the dividends paid to regular unit holders would not conflict with the covenants of the senior note. As soon as management knew there would not be a cash flow issue, the PIKs were cancelled.
    Aug 28, 2013. 10:52 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy To Stay Ahead Of Refinery MLP Peers For Rest Of 2013 [View article]
    Glucose, according to the annual report, all of the PIK units were converted to ordinary units in November 2012. There will be no additional dilution due to payment in kind distributions. Your worries are over.
    Aug 28, 2013. 02:16 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment