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Tim Plaehn  

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  • Northern Tier Energy To Stay Ahead Of Refinery MLP Peers For Rest Of 2013 [View article]
    There have been several unit sales since NTI went public. The sales appear to be from the insiders who held the majority of the units after the IPO converting their holdings to cash. There has been no dilution, but some may be taking profits on what for them was a shorter term investment.
    Aug 20, 2013. 03:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Q2 Bond Market Mess Produces Book Value Loss And Possible Dividend Cut For American Capital Agency Corp. [View article]
    How about those who are thinking of buying now? Long term holders have already taken their lumps.
    Jul 31, 2013. 03:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Good News Is On The Horizon For Linn Energy Investors [View article]
    F-P: The MLP players following this strategy like to point out that there is something like a $ trillion of producing oil and gas assets and that the drilling companies continue to find more places to drill and drill more producing wells.

    However, it is a good question whether bigger is better in this case, since a smaller company just needs to make smaller purchases to keep the ball rolling. Right now, I like the company with the track record which is Linn. There are newer, smaller players in the field, which I will eventually get around to take a closer look at and writing about here.
    Jun 3, 2013. 12:54 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CVR Partners: Feedstock Cost Advantage Does Not Reach The Bottom Line [View article]
    Good info. Each of these companies has its pros and cons and the focus here was on CVR Partners. I have my own issues with THN including the level of IDRs.
    Apr 1, 2013. 03:57 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CPFL Energia S.A. - A Solid BRIC Electric Utility With A 7.8% Yield [View article]
    The Brazilian government is in the process of slashing the rates utility companies can charge. The ramifications of these cuts for the utility companies are not yet fully known, but is seems that dividend rates will be much lower going forward. This article does not have much merit without an in depth discussion of how the rate cuts will affect companies like CPL.
    Feb 23, 2013. 09:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Surprise Cash Infusion Turns 2013 Into A Reset Year For Navios Maritime Holdings [View article]
    You cannot directly correlate a Dry Index number with charter rates. Too many variables such as spot or long term charter and the size of the vessel. The BDI can just tell investors whether things are good or bad for drybulk ship owners.
    Nov 27, 2012. 08:27 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Annaly: How mREITs Make Money And The Case For A Dividend Increase [View article]
    The analysis is sound, but I have a couple of quibbles. First, Annaly neither lends or borrows in the Treasury market. It owns and lends mortgage backed securities and borrows from private lenders - that is why the company's borrowing costs are 1.5% not the 0.25% rate of 2-year Treasuries.

    Second, the net cash flow from the spread only covered about 80% of the last dividend - the balance came from profits on the sale of MBS. My analysis here:

    There are more parts to the Annaly dividend than just the spread it can earn.
    Aug 28, 2012. 09:26 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Vanguard Natural Resources Combines High Yield Plus Dividend Growth [View article]
    A couple of items about VNR. The company has acknowledged that capital spending will be lumpy from quarter to quarter. You need to look at two to four quarters for the distributable cash flow. For the first half of 2012, distributable cash flow was $1.21 per unit - covering the dividend.

    Net income does not tell the story of cash flow, primarily due to the large amount of depreciation, depletion, amortization, and accretion taken each quarter.
    Aug 23, 2012. 07:44 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chimera Investment Corp: Headed Toward A 0% Dividend Rate [View article]
    Thanks for the comments. I will think about the photo. Unfortunately I am now even older and less attractive.
    Jul 25, 2012. 01:11 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corning Shares May Drop 25 Percent By Mid-Year [View article]
    I appreciate the comments. With many of the articles I write here I am trying to bring a different focus to the company discussed. Between here and clients I write for, I find corporate management's to be unfailingly bullish about their future results. So I dig a little and listen closely to conference call comments to see if there are cracks. With my articles and the discussion I hope to bring a different view to the individual companies.
    Mar 30, 2012. 10:33 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Argentina's Road to Ruin: How to Make Nothing Out of Everything [View article]
    I live across the river from BA and find the ongoing political/economic story of Argentina like watching a very slow train wreck. The political system seems capable of just staving off massive collapse without reforms that would generate true growth. I wouldn't put a dime in Argentina when you have Brazil nearby with proven growth and a government that seems to understand.

    Ag last year was terrible with no rain through out the entire summer. This winter the rains have been better (at least here in Uruguay). The regressive tax policies of the Kirchner's, especially the Mrs. have done more to affect farmers than the weather. When the new congress takes office in January things should get a little easier.
    Jul 21, 2009. 09:13 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wheaton's Silver Lining [View article]
    I have been watching SLW for 2 years and have traded in and out a few times. They just have not been able to bring in the growth in silver sales they have been projecting.

    The business model is awesome but they have not had the growth in revenues and bottom line to justify the valuation.
    Jun 12, 2009. 10:12 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California Real Estate Market Is Up [View article]
    The bottom in the CA housing market will come when the bankers realize they do not have to keep dropping the prices to move the REO properties.
    Feb 20, 2009. 09:30 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy Inks Another Co-Development Deal - Will The Strategy Pay Off? [View article]
    That is the other side of the upstream MLP risk equation. Have they really stabilized their cash flows with the distribution and capex spending cuts? If this risk wasn't there LINE would yield 8% or less.
    Mar 24, 2015. 03:30 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Linn Energy: 2014 Asset Restructuring To Pay 'Dividends' In 2015 And Beyond [View article]
    I answered on the other article where you posted the question.
    Feb 19, 2015. 04:12 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment