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Tim Plaehn

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  • Fannie Re-Embraces Subprime Mortgages [View article]
    The title doesn't match the topic of the article. No down mortgages are not subprime mortgages. I do understand that SA takes liberties with titles. That said: The program combines a Fannie mortgage, min 5 percent down, with funds from state housing authorities to make up the difference. It is one way local housing agencies can help get some homes purchased in their areas. The guy got a 3 bedroom house with payments around $800 per month. Not a bad way to start rebuilding the local housing market.
    Sep 6, 2010. 09:15 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • California Home Prices: Nice to See Positive Numbers [View article]
    I know it is tough when the actual numbers do not conform to your belief system. Home prices in California have been increasing since March 2009 and it appears more and more unlikely there will be another big drop in prices.
    Dec 27, 2009. 11:53 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Oil Supply: Learning from Lagos [View article]
    Excellent article!
    Oct 2, 2009. 09:03 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fractured Wall Street Fairy Tales #2: Awful News Is the Same as Good News [View article]
    Tough to be short when the market is going up. Using leveraged ETFs like SKF and SRS as longer term trading holds is very dangerous business. Every single position listed is a short. I hope you do not actually have customers money invested this way. Maybe a few of your newsletter followers will go broke and give up also.
    Jul 22, 2009. 08:57 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Iron Ore Bigger than Gold and Oil in China? [View article]
    BDI is a composite of 4 indices of different size dry bulk vessels. Last week the Capesize (iron or haulers) was off 25% while Handymax and Supramax (grains & stuff) added a couple of percentage points. If you want to follow iron or shipping keep an eye on the Capesize index.
    Jul 13, 2009. 08:23 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Global Farmland Disappearing at an Alarming Rate [View article]
    Not a crisis, just a shift on where crops are grown. Take a flight over the western regions of Brazil and Argentina and you will realize how much empty land there is on the planet. The article noted that Siberia is becoming sought after for farm land.

    Small farming communities in Africa are a lost cause. I cannot remember a time when they were viable. Governments need to concentrate in securing sources of grains from around the world at good prices. I am sure the well managed, uncorrupt government officials in Africa can figure this out.
    Jun 19, 2009. 08:32 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Baltic Dry Index Closes at a 7-Month High [View article]
    The BDI average since China became a major trade partner is about 4,000. A 2,500 level in the BDI indicates a reasonable level of profitability for most of the bulk shipping companies. As the global economy recovers, led by predicting China GDP growth of 6% to 8% for this year, BDI trading between 2,500 and 4,000 will be fine for the shipping companies.
    May 14, 2009. 10:05 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When Will the Housing Market Bottom? [View article]
    My sources are telling me that investors are buying distressed housing in Las Vegas 20 to 25 at a time. Cash. Some pretty serious money thinks the bottom in near..
    Dec 25, 2008. 10:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Data Metrics For The Refinery MLPs: Post Earnings Valuations [View article]
    Darren, that is a very valid strategy. If the Keystone XL pipeline is approved, it will be several years before it is completed and has any effect on refiners in middle America.
    Nov 15, 2014. 02:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Look At The MLP GP Companies For An Alternate Path To High Total Returns [View article]
    You need to look at the top holdings of the individual CEFs. It is not uncommon to find a nice percentage of GPs in the top 10.
    Oct 11, 2014. 06:10 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Data Metrics For The Refinery MLPs - Alon USA Partners LP, CVR Refining LP, Northern Tier Energy LP [View article]
    Peter, I lean towards NTI, but maybe because I'm from Minnesota. CVRR has done very well with distributions, but the fire will hurt for this quarter. ALDW is more of a turnaround based on oil and gas prices.
    Oct 7, 2014. 09:27 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Northern Tier Energy - The Best Of The Variable Distribution MLPs [View article]
    Skid Row,
    Got a laugh from you comment. Gas is not coming down as fast as crude, so these guys might end up with a pretty good quarter.
    Sep 21, 2014. 08:01 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Legacy Reserves Makes A Bet To Change The High-Yield Upstream MLP Model [View article]
    You have it. Currently WPX would receive 10% of any calculated IDR amount and the other 90% would stay with LGCY. WPX can increase that to 30% leaving LGCY with 70% of the IDRs to use in other deals.
    Sep 17, 2014. 07:59 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Legacy Reserves Makes A Bet To Change The High-Yield Upstream MLP Model [View article]

    The difference with upstream MLPs is that the assets have declining production rates which must be replaced in some manner. Distributions will be ROC with little or no taxable income on the K-1. Lots of depletion write-offs.
    Sep 16, 2014. 10:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overvalued Enterprise Products Partners Will Lag Peers For The Next Several Years [View article]
    Can you provide a reference to back up your assertion?
    Sep 16, 2014. 07:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment