Tim Plaehn

The Future of Ethanol

Mr Eye. Can't pick sorghum with a corn picker. Farmers each have million of dollars tied up in equipment to plant and harvest corn. It is what midwest American farmers have been doing since the self-cleaning plow was invented. How many farmers are you willing to subsidize to change over their machinery to plant and harvest another crop?

Ethanol: Our Answer to Reducing U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil

Mr. Eye. When you put gas in your car do you figure the energy equivalent basis or just gallons and price? People mostly just care how much it costs to fill up and if they are filling with U.S. produced fuel at a lower price they feel pretty good about it.

Ethanol: Our Answer to Reducing U.S. Dependence on Foreign Oil

My bad, although it took 30 comments before someone pointed it out. Annual gas consumption should be 140 Billion gallons. I have also read 180 billion gallons, but I took the number from the last source I was using.

For all of you sugar fans, did you read U.S. Sugar gave all of their Florida sugar land back to the U.S. government to stop the destruction of the Everglades.

Using E-blends greater than 10% voids a new car warranty. After the warranty period it does not make a difference. How many diesel pickup owners run biodiesel in their trucks (against warranty)? Google it sometime.

Mr Eye: At current total production of 9 billion gallons per year every gallon is being bought immediately and ethanol imports from Brazil are growing rapidly and will exceed 700 million gallons for 2008. And 10% is 10%. No equivalent anything. 10 gallons of ethanol + 90 gallons of gasoline. Coming to every gas station near you!

Is the Ethanol Mandate Likely to be Repealed?

Back again.

I am happy that my investment in VeraSun Energy is up 65% in the last 5 weeks.

And Mr. Subsidy Eye, I see you are Swiss based. Are you interested in U.S. investing or using Seeking Alpha for another agenda?

Is the Ethanol Mandate Likely to be Repealed?

Subsidy Eye,
I appreciate your comments on my "analysis". You have valid points. I will reply on the acreage note, looking at the graphs is is fairly obvious that from 06 to 07 farmers elected to plant corn instead of soybeans. Note that soybean acreage fell quite a bit. I grew up in Iowa and farmers their plant either corn or soybeans depending on what they believe will be most profitable. Also, the first graph in you link shows total planted acreage for all crops pretty level for the last several years and well below the amount planted in the 1980's.

In regards to Brazilian ethanol I find it very hard to believe that the U.S. Congress would ever pass legislation that would benefit Brazilian agriculture at the disadvantage of U.S. farmers. Think about it.

Archer Daniels Midland Operating Profits Continue to Grow

From my research, Brazil is on track to export about 700 million gallons of ethanol to the U.S. in 2008. I think the comment above that the ethanol will come in spite of the tariff is probably correct, so Uncle Sam might has well collect his cut.

The comments above gives me a continued positive outlook for my investment in VeraSun Energy, earnings out next week!

Is the Ethanol Mandate Likely to be Repealed?

Has anyone figured how much more energy farmers are using to harvest the same amount of corn that they harvested before ethanol became a major user of corn. I would guess that energy usage in the farm belt has not changed since the ethanol boom. The corn raised is just going for a different purpose. The same number of corn acreage is still being planted.

Since this is a stock market blog: buy VeraSun Energy, VSE, enjoy the boom.

Final note, at the present time Brazil has enough excess ethanol capacity to provide less than 10% of the U.S. demand and are already shipping most of their excess capacity to the U.S. It would take them several years to tear up enough rain forest to plant enough sugar and build enough plants to make a major dent in the U.S. usage.

World Market for Biofuels Expected to Double

What, no comments from the no food for fuel crowd? Good info, thanks for passing it along without the price tag. Many are missing the demand side of renewables. Every ethanol plant is easily selling every gallon they produce. New blended products save gas wholesalers money and improve their margins. VSE had to buy 40 million gallons last quarter to resell to their customers.

Ethanol Will Become a Fad Without Government Intervention

Ethanol is the only blending source for cities that need to meet clean air requirements. There is much focus on ethanol as an alt. fuel, but few realize it is necessary to meet EPA clean air requirements for many areas.

Increasing Ethanol Demand and the Likely Price Implications for Corn

Nice informative article. I would like to see a comment on yield/acre trends. The big factor this year will be weather. I know it always is, but the very tight stock situation makes it even more so.

It's Now 'Official': Ethanol Is a Scam

A comment on the cutting forests to plant more corn to make ethanol argument. In 1932 the U.S. had 113 million acres of corn planted. Now the typical crop is 85 to 90 million acres. Who dug up the corn fields to plant trees?

Corn yield improve every year and strains are developed to increase sugar content. Ethanol plants are getting more efficient, more ethanol from less corn using less water and energy. It is the American way to improve business efficiency. Ethanol companies will do the same. And when cellulosic ethanol becomes economically viable companies like VSE and ADM will be the leading producers because the will have the infrastructure to produce billions of gallons at the lowest cost.

It's Now 'Official': Ethanol Is a Scam

So we are responsible for feeding Africa. Maybe they could learn to grow their own food!

Right now ethanol reduces our gas consumption by about 4%. It supplies jobs for 1000's of people. Farmers are making good profits and buying machinery, supplies, cars & trucks. Too bad this "scam" provides a good living to so many people!