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Tim Shaw

 
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  • Delcath Systems: A Great Buy at These Prices [View article]
    We purchased shares of DCTH on 10-1-12 at 1.69 per share. We believe the risk/reward favors being long the stock at least until NDA approval potential and further into next year.
    Oct 2 09:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Front Running QE3 - Part 2 [View article]
    Agree that Europe will provide some liquidity, and will be interesting to see how commodities and currencies react to a no fed print but EU print campaign mid September.
    Aug 28 05:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Facebook: Compelling Growth, But Fairly Valued; Initiating With Equal Weight And $29 Target [View article]
    Hi Jiang

    Well put together article, but final analysis is flawed if you believe they will achieve total revenue of 5.965B in revenue in 2012 or 61% increase from 2011or 9B in 2013, not a chance. Never happen, as growth is slowing on a yr/yr basis.
    Jun 26 03:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Continues Operation Twist [View article]
    Nice job on your TLT trade. The Fed mentioned that IR's will be low through 2014. Rolling into BND is a good inexpensive way to remain in bonds without the volatility that TLT has. Below is a two year chart of both TLT and BND showing the volatility.

    http://bit.ly/NcGVBx
    Jun 21 08:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ancestry.com: Wait For A Lower-Risk Buy Point [View article]
    The show cancellation did have an effect on share price, no doubt. Revenue and subscriber growth is slowing on a yr/yr basis, and the company said zero sequential subscriber growth the second half of the year. It will be interesting to see if any interested parties step up to the table and what they are willing to pay.
    Jun 7 11:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ancestry.com: Wait For A Lower-Risk Buy Point [View article]
    Yes Bill, I noticed. This is a good area to start a position as support has held up well here. The safe way to buy would be in increments, 1/3 now, and the other 2/3 rds of the position your seeking over a period of time. Best of luck.
    Jun 1 09:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ancestry.com: Wait For A Lower-Risk Buy Point [View article]
    I agree that today this is a much lower risk buy point on support area. The company could be buying back shares at this level also.
    http://bit.ly/JCvwca
    May 23 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Celgene's Compelling Growth Story [View article]
    One main reason is that stocks in general still have an extremely high correlation with the S&P 500. But I expect CELG's correlation to potentially breakout (PE expansion) as catalyst occur and analyst adjust their targets higher.
    Apr 3 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ancestry.com Q3 Earnings Exceed Estimates [View article]
    On a sequential Q/Q, their second June quarter has had the highest percentage increase, (2010-15.6%), and (11.3% in 2011) in revs.
    I think this is a story of a company managing very well in a tough economic environment compared to others.
    The key is going to be their guidance for 2012 in January.
    Oct 27 07:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ancestry.com: Selling at a Discount in the Low 30s [View article]
    Hi David

    We do not own shares, but the valuation is compelling. More inclined to wait until after 3rd quarter results are in on Oct. 24th.
    Or if you feel a must buy before, purchase 1/3 before, 1/3 after the results and guidance, and the last 1/3 when the overall market stabilizes. Also one can buy shares and married puts at the same time heading into earnings to reduce the risk.

    Good Luck
    Oct 5 09:35 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ancestry.com: Selling at a Discount in the Low 30s [View article]
    Did I say any stock? I said ACOM, and used NFLX as an example because they rely on a consumer subscription type model. A valuation comparison could be used against OPEN also. GL
    Aug 1 08:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ancestry.com: Selling at a Discount in the Low 30s [View article]
    ACOM is extremely oversold in the short term, so some type of bounce would not surprise me. Two days and the 200 dma has held as support.
    If we see a break of the 200 dma as short term oversold as the stock is now, then that would be a big negative technically, and the low 30's would be my price target. GL.
    Aug 1 06:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Delcath Systems Is Still a Great Buy: Thoughts on Q3, So Far [View article]
    Thanks for the summary BigPharm

    Two of the 4 arms in P2 should look at least good. Neuroendocrine, and OM/CM should support the cause well.
    Wondering why they even included the HCC arm if they knew that doxo is probably the most effective way to go with that indication.
    Nov 4 10:04 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Delcath Takeover Rumors Emerge [View article]
    Robert0713
    There were 3 deaths due to the procedure. One individual was so bad off that the company felt he should not have belonged in the study, but was counted anyway. The 2 other deaths were the result of the procedure. The deaths were within range against best alternative care, and actually the results were better.

    The test was set up with a Special Protocol Assessment with the FDA. So the population numbers were pre-established prior to the phase 3 test.

    The market potential for Cutaneous and Ocular Melanoma is estimated at approximately 500 million, just USA. That is what they are seeking FDA approval for.
    Oct 8 08:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Delcath Systems: A Great Buy at These Prices [View article]
    Hi Logical Thought

    Good questions:
    Partnerships: I still expect the company to finance the future commercialization via partnerships. It is going to take a significant more amount of capital for commercialization. Having cash on hand and FDA approval (if so) gives DCTH a more solid negotiating position for partnerships. I believe they may have overestimated the macro environment but they have plenty of cash for now.

    Revenue numbers: From your link above, it is true that Ocular melanoma market hits around 2500 per year and DCTH has said they could get 90% of that, we'll say 1,800 victims (company presentation). The larger is Cutaneous Melanoma which has 36,300 cases a year and DCTH has stated that 25% would qualify or 9,075 people. So combined you have over 10,000 potential treatable cases that meet the criteria. (All from company presentations found at their website).

    How much revenue falls to DCTH could be questionable. Conservatively, I based numbers on 2.5 procedures (conservative), some people could receive up to 4 procedures. Even if they capture 75% of everything the bottom line share price figure would be about $28.00. If you want to get more conservative at 50% capture = 19.00 share price.

    Respond to your actual patient population, I have no idea where you pulled those number from. Here's the actual from the company presentation.
    36,300 Cutaneous melanoma x 25% qualifying = 9,075
    2,000 Ocular melanoma x 90% qualifying = 1,800
    Total = 10,875 potential cases
    These are just US numbers for Ocular and Cutaneous melanoma, again all from company presentation.

    The largest market will be for Colorectal at approximately 194k with 40% qualifying = 7,760 potential cases.

    Bottom Line: From a risk / reward stand point this is a good company to own at these prices, but has to be allocated properly in the portfolio.
    Aug 31 10:11 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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