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Tim Travis  

PRO Articles
PRO articles cover stocks that fly under most investors' radar screens.
  • Assured Guaranty - Significant Intrinsic Value Per Share Growth Continues
     • Tue, Mar. 3 AGO 9 Comments

    Summary

    • Assured Guaranty is an example of a publicly traded business that is available at a minimum of a 40% discount to its intrinsic value.
    • Assured Guaranty is the leading municipal bond insurance company in the United States and has a sterling track record of underwriting.
    • The company earned $491MM of operating income in 2014, but this is a company that has earnings potential that is much greater in a higher interest rate environment.
  • Ally Financial: 67% Of Tangible Book Value Is Laughable
       • Sat, Jan. 31 ALLY 17 Comments

    Summary

    • In an expensive market, Ally is profitable and trading at 67% of tangible book value, presenting a compelling value for long-term shareholders.
    • Investors can buy the business at a massive discount to liquidation value, while returns on equity, profit margins and dividends are likely to increase materially over the next 3-5 years.
    • Within 3-5 years, as book value grows and that ROE expansion comes through, it is very realistic to imagine Ally trading at $35-$40 per share.
  • Citizens Financial Group: ROE And Valuation Will Only Go Up
       • Wed, Jan. 28 CFG 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Citizens Financial Group was an undermanaged and neglected part of a massive conglomerate, the recent spin-off from RBS provides investors with a well financed bank at a cheap price.
    • RBS was forced to shrink itself aggressively so Citizens was not in a position to grow assets or staffing, as a result the company is overly-capitalized with a low ROE.
    • Management is now dedicated to improving efficiency and growing the business, a corresponding increase in ROE should follow.
    • The company has a lot of room for improvement in areas such as Treasury Services and mortgage origination, but creating that effective cross-selling culture will most certainly take time.
  • Ensco PLC: Valuation And Financial Strength Make It A Compelling Buy
       • Wed, Jan. 14 ESV 39 Comments

    Summary

    • Ensco provides one of the best risk/reward opportunities in the energy industy.
    • With the recent drop in oil prices, demand for rigs will no longer exceed supply; E&P companies will now likely focus on the complete drilling solutions Ensco provides.
    • ESV's 33% leverage ratio, one of the lowest in the industry, should allow ESV to weather the current turmoil in oil markets and emerge a stronger player.
  • Helmerich & Payne- Might Be Time To Catch That Falling Knife
       • Mon, Jan. 12 HP 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Helmerich & Payne provides an excellent opportunity to buy a well-financed company with significant upside for the long-term oriented investor.
    • The recent drop in oil prices is likely to cause significant pain for H&P's more leveraged competitors, allowing H&P to gain market share in the future as prices recover.
    • H&P's advanced and cost effective rigs give them a competitive advantage over its competitors.
  • Discovery Communications, Inc.- Content Will Once Again Prove To Be King
       • Dec. 18, 2014 DISCA 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Investing in Discovery Communications offers investors a first class media franchise at a discount price.
    • By not paying the high fees of celebrity actors, Discovery communications produces thousands of hours of content at attractive margins each year.
    • Recent guidance has lowered the near-term forecast for DISCA penalizing the stock, much of this can be attributed to currency valuations and should be seen as a buying opportunity.
  • Ally Financial - Buy Before ROE Expansion
       • Dec. 9, 2014 ALLY 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Government ownership in Ally Financial presents an opportunity; as government ownership of the stock decreases, so too should the discount applied to the stock from government ownership.
    • Ally doesn't have a branch network, allowing it to have a lower cost structure than its peers.
    • Expensive legacy costs from the Real Estate bubble still haunt Ally's balance sheet- but as these costs are wound down the benefits to the balance sheet should become apparent.
  • AGCO Corp.: Cyclical Downturn In Farm Incomes Creates A Buying Opportunity
       • Nov. 27, 2014 AGCO 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Short-term concerns and a cyclical downturn have created a buying opportunity for AGCO.
    • AGCO boasts a tremendous geographical footprint and is one of the three leading farm equipment manufacturers.
    • At current prices, AGCO is an attractive acquisition target for a merger, buyout, or the common shareholder.
  • Assured Guaranty - Aggressive Stock Buyback Will Reward Long-Term Investors
       • Nov. 19, 2014 AGO 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Assured Guaranty trades at a discount to its intrinsic value.
    • Share buybacks done at a discount to intrinsic value increase the intrinsic value of the remaining shares.
    • The Detroit bankruptcy proved more manageable to the industry than many feared.
  • Ratings Improvement And Higher Interest Rates Should Propel Assured Guaranty Higher
       • Mar. 22, 2014 AGO 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Assured Guaranty has outpaced its rivals through prudent underwriting.
    • AGO reported 2013 operating earnings of $3.25 per share, up 15.7% YoY.
    • AGO's primary Operating Subsidiaries upgraded by S&P to 'AA' from 'AA-'.
  • Ultra Petroleum - The Best Pure-Play For Increasing Natural Gas Prices
       • Sep. 5, 2013 UPL 10 Comments
  • Aeropostale: Distressed Teen Retailer Is A Perfect Fit For A Private Equity-led Buyout
       • Sep. 4, 2013 ARO 26 Comments
  • Assured Guaranty - Value Investing 101
       • Aug. 21, 2013 AGO 3 Comments
  • Fiesta Restaurant Group Offers Significant Long-Term Potential
       • Aug. 20, 2013 FRGI 20 Comments
  • ING US - Unloved, Underappreciated, And Undervalued
       • Jul. 11, 2013 VOYA 21 Comments
  • Peabody Energy: Commodity Contrarian Investing 101
       • Jul. 3, 2013 BTU 28 Comments
  • Ultra Petroleum Could Double Within 3 Years
       • Jun. 22, 2013 UPL 23 Comments
  • Investors Title Company Will Continue To Build Its Intrinsic Value With A Strong Housing Market
       • Jun. 19, 2013 ITIC Comment!
  • Superior Industries Is A Buyout Candidate, Despite New Plant Build
       • Jun. 5, 2013 SUP 4 Comments
  • Fiesta's Long-Term Growth Potential Could Be Unlocked By An Equity Issuance Or Merger
       • Jun. 5, 2013 FRGI 32 Comments
  • Assured Guaranty - Aggressive Stock Buyback At Discount To Net Asset Value Will Be Huge
       • May. 14, 2013 AGO 13 Comments
  • Assured Guaranty: Resolution Of Uncertainties Should Continue To Improve Stock Price
       • Feb. 11, 2013 AGO 12 Comments