Fiesta's Long-Term Growth Potential Could Be Unlocked By An Equity Issuance Or Merger [View article]
They are franchising and licensing overseas so the capital outlay is very low. Chipotle wasn't always Chipotle so I don't know how absurd it is to compare two extremely high volume restaurant chains that have had very little investment in marketing with an established brand. It's not a short-term investment so additional float in my opinion if it is a true equity raise, would be a net positive. Dodd-Frank and Basel III make it extremely difficult for banks to hold equity stakes in companies, so I'm not going to lose any sleep about what Jefferies does. Thanks for commenting.
Superior Industries Is A Buyout Candidate, Despite New Plant Build [View article]
We are still substantially below pre-recession levels in terms of U.S. sales. I believe the valuation doesn't reflect the recovery and I think PE companies will give SUP a good look. The balance sheet is tremendous as well. Unless you think that auto sales will collapse I believe it is an attractive opportunity.
Salesforce.com: The Charade Continues With Recent Acquisition [View article]
HPQ generates between $7.5 billion and $10 billion for free cash flow a year, and that is real free cash flow as opposed to CRM's bogus accounting. I don't value the company based on a multiple of book value or intangible book value, but instead I look at the cash flow and profit potential. HPQ is in the midst of a tremendous turnaround and trades at a much cheaper valuation. It is a matter of hype versus substance. Thanks for commenting.
Fiesta's Long-Term Growth Potential Could Be Unlocked By An Equity Issuance Or Merger [View article]
I'm a long-term investor so while an equity issuance might cause the stock to drop temporarily to the benefit of shorts, I believe it is in the best interests of the company. Most of the debt is lease obligations and the company needs funds to grow more aggressively. My intention is to shed light on what I believe to be a potential jewel of a franchise that is obscured by a lack of investment, but if management is proactive, the value can be unlocked. I started buying the stock in mid to high $20's as I only uncovered the company after moving to Miami, trying it and really liking it, and then researching the company. I'd buy more on dips but I do believe that management's commentary and guidance can be better. Hopefully that answered your question and I don't begrudge you for being short based on valuation, as this is a long-term play for me, and seeing it sell off 30-40% would be a buying opportunity in my eyes. Thanks for commenting.
Chesapeake Energy: New Management And Cheap Valuation On A Strong Resource Base [View article]
I think you need to take a mixed approach. You look at the net asset value and make an educated forecast in regards to potential future cash flows assuming various pricing scenarios. Capital allocation is pivotal in this business and that is where CHK has been lacking. There is no one way to value E&P's, but I take a mixed approach and all of those factors you mentioned are part of it. If I wasn't bullish long-term on natural gas or confident that the new management and board of directors would behave in shareholders' interests, I wouldn't buy the stock. Thanks for commenting.
Salesforce.com: The Charade Continues With Recent Acquisition [View article]
You are correct in that there is a legitimate business buried beneath the bluster. This isn't pets.com but it isn't Microsoft or Oracle either. If there wasn't so much promotion and the valuation was so skewed I wouldn't care nearly as much, but when I feel someone is intentionally being misleading to promote their own interests at the expense of outside passive minority investors (Martin Whitman's term) I feel that it is deserving of more scrutiny.
Salesforce.com: The Charade Continues With Recent Acquisition [View article]
You are correct, intangible assets are. If I said goodwill that was incorrect and I met intangibles. I do expect to see goodwill written down in the next few years.
Salesforce.com: The Charade Continues With Recent Acquisition [View article]
Thank you for your comment. You are correct, I am not good at mincing words for better or worse and this charade is irksome in that it seems to be all based off of a series of incorrect assumptions, such as the over-emphasis of revenue growth without regards to cost, and the use of irrelevant information for forecasting.
Salesforce.com: The Charade Continues With Recent Acquisition [View article]
You are right on about the NOL. I thought a genius acquisition would have been HPQ when it was selling at depressed levels. CRM could have paid a huge premium as long as it was using its stock as currency. Thanks for commenting.
Salesforce.com: The Charade Continues With Recent Acquisition [View article]
What will the profits be on that revenue? Any company can grow revenue through acquiring companies. Yes is it recurring revenue but there is also something called churn, which requires constant new marketing efforts to replace. I've used a variety of CRM's and switched CRM's and it really isn't that traumatic of an experience. CRM just lowered guidance, and their guidance is easily manipulated by changing the compensation structure of employees more towards stock-based compensation from cash. I haven't been short the stock so I don't have a position to really comment on whether I'd be up or down on the stock, nor do I really care as I'm confident that the weighing machine of time will bring the stock to reality. What is your process for valuing the company? Thank you all for your comments.
Fiesta's Long-Term Growth Potential Could Be Unlocked By An Equity Issuance Or Merger [View article]
Salesforce.com: The Charade Continues With Recent Acquisition [View article]
Superior Industries Is A Buyout Candidate, Despite New Plant Build [View article]
Salesforce.com: The Charade Continues With Recent Acquisition [View article]
Salesforce.com: The Charade Continues With Recent Acquisition [View article]
Fiesta's Long-Term Growth Potential Could Be Unlocked By An Equity Issuance Or Merger [View article]
Fiesta's Long-Term Growth Potential Could Be Unlocked By An Equity Issuance Or Merger [View article]
Salesforce.com: The Charade Continues With Recent Acquisition [View article]
Salesforce.com: The Charade Continues With Recent Acquisition [View article]
Chesapeake Energy: New Management And Cheap Valuation On A Strong Resource Base [View article]
Salesforce.com: The Charade Continues With Recent Acquisition [View article]
Salesforce.com: The Charade Continues With Recent Acquisition [View article]
Salesforce.com: The Charade Continues With Recent Acquisition [View article]
Salesforce.com: The Charade Continues With Recent Acquisition [View article]
Salesforce.com: The Charade Continues With Recent Acquisition [View article]