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Tim Welland

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  • Liberator Medical Supply: The Newest, Defensive, Safe, And Shareholder Friendly Name On The NYSE MKT [View article]
    It's an asset, to be expensed as time passes. The company is very open about their accounting practices wrt deferred advertising and they capitalized these because the business shows that there are multi-year benefits to advertising. Take a look at their key accounting procedures.
    Dec 20 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REITs struggle as rates rise [View news story]
    The main problems with rising rates are:
    1) REITs rely heavily on debt financing and as the rates on this (treasury yield+spread) increase, their cost of capital will as well. Not to mention that the asset values of the REITs' properties are directly inversely related to interest rates, so asset values will fall as well. These two things are connected.
    2) Years of low interest rates have sent yield-seekers into "higher risk" assets, buying dividend-yielding stocks, junk bonds, etc., instead of treasuries. If treasuries go back to yielding 4-5%, you will see a lot of investors bail on stocks and head back to the "safer" assets.
    Dec 20 11:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberator Medical Supply: The Newest, Defensive, Safe, And Shareholder Friendly Name On The NYSE MKT [View article]
    I cashed out around $3.15. Missed some more upside but my valuation told me that most of the margin of safety was gone. Still could up more (it nearly hit $4 today!) but I'm happy.

    It's one I'll definitely be keeping on my radar for future price drops. I'd love to buy back in.

    EDIT: It passed $4 today before settling down.
    Nov 27 01:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Liberator Medical Supply: The Newest, Defensive, Safe, And Shareholder Friendly Name On The NYSE MKT [View article]
    I don't mean to brag, but... ok I do. Bought in late August. Needless to say, the last 3 months have been fantastic. My only regret is not backing up the truck for this one.
    Nov 21 03:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Universal HealthRealty Income Trust Dividend Stock Analysis [View article]
    I'm not sure I understand how you could write this article without assessing the safety of UHT's dividend...
    Aug 19 06:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Short Case For Universal Health REIT Continues To Look Strong [View article]
    Still short - which is looking better and better by the day. Holding this one has been rough, but my thesis still holds and it's a relatively small position of mine.
    May 24 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Greetings Waiting To Greet A Higher Bid [View article]
    Seems like a pretty low risk play right now. Reading through the mortgage docs, the Board (esp. Dr. Cowen) seems to have the shareholder's best interest in mind. Seems like they pushed hard for higher offers from the Weiss family.

    And the 'majority of the minority' provision is very valuable, especially as unvoted shares will be considered 'No' votes.
    May 6 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Pillars To Angie's List Demise [View article]
    Barring a sale of their contractor list, I honestly don't see how this company has any terminal value, which makes anything done by a DCF sort of meaningless.
    Feb 7 02:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Time Is Running Out For Oshkosh [View article]
    What about OSK's other business units? JLG has been improving considerably in the past months.
    Sep 17 03:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List: Business As Usual - On Track To Raise More Equity As Losses Mount [View article]
    Revenue is not the issue, it's the fact that, as Richard pointed out, the business model doesn't work. They are bleeding cash and their losses grow along with their revenue.

    Pretty amazing unintentional humour from the Oppenheimer report:

    “But, we worry that Angie could be forced into premature profitability as it burns through cash and is unable to raise more (without significant dilution) given its depressed stock price.”

    Premature profitability! Amazing!
    Aug 30 03:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List: Business As Usual - On Track To Raise More Equity As Losses Mount [View article]
    I too noticed that ANGI's cash burn would look significantly worse if they hadn't stopped paying their liabilities. This is one of those rare, amazing stocks, that actually manages to lose more money the more it grows.

    I really don't know that I see much of a way out of this for them. Equity dilution is probably possible but will result in massive dilution. I'm sure they could borrow money as well, but what would they have to pay to do so? I doubt it would be a nice number.
    Aug 24 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Supervalu: Short-Term Challenges, Optimistic Long-Term [View article]
    Saibus, appreciate the response and couldn't agree more. SVU's real estate assets are a oft-neglected but important part of the investment case here.
    Jul 19 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Supervalu: Short-Term Challenges, Optimistic Long-Term [View article]
    What people don't understand about debt covenants: they are very unlikely to be ever actually violated. What usually ends up happening is that the bank/bank consortium and the issuer end up renegotiating the debt with a looser covenant (offset by an upfront payment or higher interest rate to compensate for the added risk). It is in the best interest of the bank and issuer to do this. So even if SVU had not gone to the lengths it has to remove this burden, it would still be a remote possibility.
    Jul 13 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • StonMor's Distributions Are Sustainable [View article]
    Nice to have a kindred spirit on here. As I have tried to point out to no avail, it doesn't matter what games they are playing or what things are deferred, etc., because the amount of money the company generates is not covering its distribution. For a couple other stocks that are distributing over 100% (or just under 100%) of operating cash flow, check out my articles on HCN and UHT.
    Mar 20 02:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Sell This Popular Oil Stock [View article]
    Given their upcoming rig purchases and expenditures to retrofit one rig, I wouldn't be surprised to see them raise some more money in the form of debt. Their debt burden at the moment is quite manageable.
    Mar 10 06:51 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
202 Comments
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