Prolor Biotech: A Critical Year For Company With Results Expected For Lead Drug In Development [View article]
Per the CEO's comments on their Q3 conference call, Teva is in fact looking to "expand and invest in other companies right now". See SA's transcript section.
Oculus: Financial Distress, Concentration Risk, And Other Red Flags [View article]
UPDATE: Oculus priced an offering of 3.5 Million shares at a weighted average of $0.90 this morning, discounted >23% from last week's close. Investors got the short end of the stick with 100% warrant coverage on top. http://bit.ly/I60I9d
Len, this is very well written. NovaBay has a very unique product offering in a segment that most investors do not yet understand. Analysts' discounted cash flow models suggest a valuation north of $2/share on the conservative end. There's also validation on the end of a partnership with Galderma - a global leader in dermatology who has effectively committed over $62 million to develop NovaBay's Aganocide for the treatment of Impetigo (see http://bit.ly/vNchdH).
Whichever way you look at this company, it seems grossly undervalued.
Large Market Opportunity Emerges For Oculus Technology [View article]
The facts are directly available in Oculus's regulatory filings (which were cited in our report). So it is a little strange that someone could "tear them apart" - as you have suggested...
Large Market Opportunity Emerges For Oculus Technology [View article]
The nominal price of shares is absolutely no indication of (1) whether or not a company's products work, neither (2) a measure of relative value, or even sentiment among investors. But to that end, Oculus's market cap is misrepresented and you fail to mention this. On a fully diluted basis, there are 44,540,000 shares outstanding (according to the company). This implies that the company trades at more than 4X last twelve months (LTM) sales. Puricore PLC (PURI on the London Stock Exchange) manufactures a product oddly similar to Oculus. The company also has FDA clearance for their product as a wound cleanser. Yet Puricore is valued at less than 2X LTM sales. Either Puricore is grossly undervalued or Oculus is grossly OVERVALUED. Interestingly, Puricore is predominately owned by institutional investors. Oculus's ownership among funds is less than 10%. Shares of this company [OCLS] are predominately held in the hands of unsophisticated investors.
In your own article you perpetuate that "Microcyn kills MRSA and VRE, (antibiotic resistant bacteria), whereas Betadine and other commonly used antimicrobials do not."
You cannot make this claim unless, or until, Microcyn is approved by the FDA as a drug. At present, Microcyn is nothing more than a wound cleanser. Oculus and/or its partners have tried to sell the product by claiming drug-like properties. At least twice we find evidence of reprimand by the FDA. This shows that you either have a gross misunderstanding of the business and its 'technologies' or failed to do research.
Oculus: Financial Distress, Concentration Risk, And Other Red Flags [View article]
Oculus's dividend history isn't an "argument", it's fact. For many investors dividends make up a sizeable portion of total return. Inevitably, the only thing Oculus's investors have realized to-date are [large] capital losses. In FY2012 Oculus will only add to a growing $130MM+ deficit. Solvency has perpetually plagued the company; growth is pegged to a single distributor; and there is a massive amount of dilutive overhang.
When exactly are they "on the way to turn into net-positive earnings" given that expenses have largely offset growth in sales - not to mention that the growth was partially due to a one-time gain in royalty?
You (and investors, in general) should find it troubling that management felt the need to regurgitate month-old news in a release this morning. http://yhoo.it/GIJ593
Oculus: Financial Distress, Concentration Risk, And Other Red Flags [View article]
"[...]I took advantage of figuring out that nothing has changed at OCLS". -- Precisely why it should concern investors.
The folly in investing before researching a company is that information has a tendency of surfacing at the worst possible time. And yet the facts summarized in our report have been available to the public for quite some time. We highlighted material risks that have not been factored into the price (yet). Of course we only grazed the surface, and there are other risks (not highlighted in this report) that make this company unattractive on a risk/reward basis.
Vivus: Another Potentially Safe Short Play On Likely Drug Rejection [View article]
Qnexa, not Qnesa, will be viewed by the FDA on a balance of benefits to risk(s). The risks, briefly described in this article http://bit.ly/wq6a5u, are minor when weighed with the potency of Qnexa as a weight-loss drug. The FDA is 'safety-biased' if you will, but they also understand obesity leads to often fatal diseases and inevitably a poorer quality of life. The FDA is also well aware of the growing costs of a redundant healthcare system and the need for drastic change. It’s very speculative to dismiss the approval or suggest a CV study will be asked of Vivus before product approval.
How Qnexa's Positive Panel Review Generated Alpha For Short Sellers [View article]
Skippalmer:
The tendency for shares of Vivus to rise as an FDA decision looms is exaggerated by the large unmet need for an efficacious, prescription weight-loss medication. Post-approval it becomes a lot clearer - particularly once the momentum crowd fades - if the company is worth $30 per share, more, or less. Dendreon saw the same thing when its immunotherapy drug for prostate cancer was approved by the FDA. Shares soared on optimism, which, as it turns out, was premature - the product took longer than expected to reach end-users because of a run-in with reimbursement and the learning curve that comes with launching your first commercial product.
How Qnexa's Positive Panel Review Generated Alpha For Short Sellers [View article]
The intent was to demonstrate that Arena and Orexigen are derivative of a speculative case, in itself. Therefore their large shifts in price were fundamentally flawed.
How Qnexa's Positive Panel Review Generated Alpha For Short Sellers [View article]
You've missed the point: after Wednesday's news, shares of these equities were overbought. Short-sellers created alpha by taking advantage of temporarily mispriced market(s). Naturally, all three stocks corrected in the ensuing trading session. Arena forfeited all of its earlier gains (suggesting weakness and lack of confidence on the part of its investors) and Orexigen has further downside.
Ampio Pharmaceuticals: Anti-Inflammatory Medicine Awaits FDA Guidance On Pivotal Juncture [View article]
An initial osteoarthritis-in-the-... trial in Australia enrolled and tested Ampion in a three-arm, 60 patient study. Ampio then launched a study for Ampion as a stand-alone therapy versus placebo in a randomized, double-blinded study at Centers for Allergy and Asthma in Denver, Colorado for nasal inflammation, which enrolled an additional 20 patients. Positive data from the initial osteoarthritis-in-the-... trial gave Ampio the validation and safety data needed to test Ampio as a stand-alone therapeutic in the 40-patient follow-on trial we're now discussing.
In aggregate, at least 120 patients received Ampion in clinical trials. No adverse events related to treatment with Ampion were reported. Ampion's innate composition, a naturally occurring human molecule, itself, suggests it is well-tolerated as a therapy.
Prolor Biotech: A Critical Year For Company With Results Expected For Lead Drug In Development [View article]
Trovagene Poised To Lead The Next Generation Of Molecular Diagnostics Technology [View article]
Repros Therapeutics: More Holes Than A Block Of Swiss Cheese [View article]
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Oculus: Financial Distress, Concentration Risk, And Other Red Flags [View article]
NovaBay Anti-Infective Programs Mitigate Risk [View article]
Whichever way you look at this company, it seems grossly undervalued.
Large Market Opportunity Emerges For Oculus Technology [View article]
Large Market Opportunity Emerges For Oculus Technology [View article]
In your own article you perpetuate that "Microcyn kills MRSA and VRE, (antibiotic resistant bacteria), whereas Betadine and other commonly used antimicrobials do not."
You cannot make this claim unless, or until, Microcyn is approved by the FDA as a drug. At present, Microcyn is nothing more than a wound cleanser. Oculus and/or its partners have tried to sell the product by claiming drug-like properties. At least twice we find evidence of reprimand by the FDA. This shows that you either have a gross misunderstanding of the business and its 'technologies' or failed to do research.
Oculus: Financial Distress, Concentration Risk, And Other Red Flags [View article]
When exactly are they "on the way to turn into net-positive earnings" given that expenses have largely offset growth in sales - not to mention that the growth was partially due to a one-time gain in royalty?
You (and investors, in general) should find it troubling that management felt the need to regurgitate month-old news in a release this morning. http://yhoo.it/GIJ593
Oculus: Financial Distress, Concentration Risk, And Other Red Flags [View article]
The folly in investing before researching a company is that information has a tendency of surfacing at the worst possible time. And yet the facts summarized in our report have been available to the public for quite some time. We highlighted material risks that have not been factored into the price (yet). Of course we only grazed the surface, and there are other risks (not highlighted in this report) that make this company unattractive on a risk/reward basis.
Vivus: Another Potentially Safe Short Play On Likely Drug Rejection [View article]
How Qnexa's Positive Panel Review Generated Alpha For Short Sellers [View article]
The tendency for shares of Vivus to rise as an FDA decision looms is exaggerated by the large unmet need for an efficacious, prescription weight-loss medication. Post-approval it becomes a lot clearer - particularly once the momentum crowd fades - if the company is worth $30 per share, more, or less. Dendreon saw the same thing when its immunotherapy drug for prostate cancer was approved by the FDA. Shares soared on optimism, which, as it turns out, was premature - the product took longer than expected to reach end-users because of a run-in with reimbursement and the learning curve that comes with launching your first commercial product.
How Qnexa's Positive Panel Review Generated Alpha For Short Sellers [View article]
How Qnexa's Positive Panel Review Generated Alpha For Short Sellers [View article]
How Much Is Jeremy Lin Worth To MSG? [View article]
Excellent piece.
Ampio Pharmaceuticals: Anti-Inflammatory Medicine Awaits FDA Guidance On Pivotal Juncture [View article]
In aggregate, at least 120 patients received Ampion in clinical trials. No adverse events related to treatment with Ampion were reported. Ampion's innate composition, a naturally occurring human molecule, itself, suggests it is well-tolerated as a therapy.