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Timeless Wealth is a leading Publisher of Investment-Opinion content supported by research. We utilize a mix of fundamental and behavioral analysis to uncover undervalued investment opportunities in the small cap sector. Follow us on twitter: https://twitter.com/#!/TimelessWealth
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  • Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO) Could See a Return to Higher Prices

    Historically, Northwest Biotherapeutics (NASDAQ:NWBO) has trended at or near its 50-day moving average (observe chart below).

    Northwest Biotherapeutics chart

    Deviation below the 50-day moving average (NYSE:MA) has commonly resulted in a buying opportunity, as the price tends to adjust back upwards to the 50MA. Now, for the third time since 2007, Northwest Biotherapeutics shares have deviated significantly (~44%) below their historical price average.

    Is there reason to believe the price may presently adjust back to the 50MA?

    The scent of material news is looming. Recent SEC filings reveal the company has entered into arrangements with private investors to raise capital needed for funding clinical trials of the company’s immunotherapy drug, DCVax, in brain and prostate cancers. As capital shortfalls have plauged clinical development, a financing agreement would be significant enough to bolster shares back to the 50MA, and beyond.

    Speculation aside, Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO) has returned meaningful data from clinical trials in Glioblastoma (brain) and prostate cancer, respectfully.

    Under DCVax®-Brain, median survival of newly-diagnosed patients with glioblastoma, a common form of brain cancer, was 36.4 months, comparing favorably to the standard of care median of just 14.6 months. Treatment of brain cancer under the standard of care would include surgery, radiation therapy and Temodar, a compound distributed by Merck (NYSE:MRK). Under this care, however, only 26% of patients live beyond two years; more than 69% have survived after being treated with DCVax.

    Invariably, Northwest Biotherapeutics’ strides are aimed at a fairly unsatisfied market, where DCVax®-Brain has shown clinical significance (see figures, below).

    Northwest Biotherapeutics DCVax

    Northwest Biotherapeutics DCVax 

    The end-goal then, perhaps, is a new and superior standard-of-care that includes Northwest Biotherapeutics’ DCVax®-Brain.

    DCVax®-Prostate, FDA-cleared to undertake Phase III trials for prostate cancer, competes in a market familiar to Dendreon (NASDAQ:DNDN) shareholders. The once small, now $5 Billion biotechnology company found fame in FDA-approved Provenge, which is used to treat prostate cancer. Like Provenge, DCVax®-Prostate is an immunotherapy that "utilizes a patients own dendritic cells, and an antigen or target protein, to induce an immune response”. Without diving into too great detail on the similarities or dissimilarities, the schedule presented (below) speaks volumes about the data collected in earlier trials of DCVax®-Prostate.

    Northwest Biotherapeutics survival data

    Evidently, Northwest Biotherapeutics has a legitimate product candidate for the treatment of both prostate and brain cancer. Should the company strike a deal that will fund late-stage trials, investors may very well begin to wager on the success of this organization. Earlier this year, Amgen (NASDAQ:AMGN) acquired privately-held Biovex, a biotechnology firm that was developing a vaccine for head & neck cancer. They were in stage III trials when the pharmaceutical giant took notice and offered $1 Billion to buy them out. Northwest Biotherapeutics’ DCvax has shown efficacy that even Biovex’s vaccine fell short of.



    Disclosure: I am long AMGN, NWBO.

    Additional disclosure: The opinion expressed herein does not constitute a buy or sell recommendation for any securities. Please be advised that you should consult your independent investment advisor before making any investment decisions. View our full disclaimer at timelesswealth.net
    May 17 7:40 PM | Link | 2 Comments
  • Today In Small Biotech
    There's a lot going on in small cap biotech, even more so when you take into perspective the entire sector. What I've attempted to do is organize a brief overview of a few key biotechs making significant strides by way of price and volume. For the purposes of this report, the objective was to find companies with a capitalization under $500M, traded under $5/share, and seeing abnormal volume. The results of that screen were further narrowed down by looking at a key factor in low debt/equity. In fact, all of the companies listed (below) have hardly any debt to speak of and cash positions to justify variable levels of stability. The last criteria was for short interest to be at or below 5%. 
     
    Thursday's spotlight spent a considerable portion of time over at Rexahn Pharmaceuticals (NYSEMKT:RNN), whose shares closed at a new 7-month high on Monday. By the end of the session, investors valued the company 24% higher on the basis of last week's $3.95 Million injection by Teva Pharmaceutical Industries (NYSE:TEVA), who now owns 6.29% of the company, and the likelihood of something good coming out of ongoing Phase 2 clinical trials for three separate drugs.
     
    ImmunoCellular Therapeutics (NYSEMKT:IMUC) was also the beneficiary of a new 7-month high price after announcing their first patient had enrolled in Phase 2 clinical trials for ICT-107, a cancer vaccine targeting glioblastoma, late last week. They have a considerable portion of cash on hand relative to their burn rate and no debt. More information can be found in my earlier write-up on the company.
     
    Repros Therapeutics (NASDAQ:RPRX) was another recipient of abnormal share volume, which propelled its stock price higher on Monday. In January the company reported it had received Institutional Review Board (IRB) approval to commence the Phase IIb study of Androxal® in men with secondary hypogonadism. More importantly, their offering of common stock and warrants is expected to close "on or about February 8th, 2011", and the $11 Million they will raise "is expected to provide Repros funding into mid-2012".
     
    Zalicus' (ZLCS) oncology research collaboration agreement with Novartis was extended to May 2012 in early January. The only other noteworthy event that I could find regarding this company without getting specific was a bio conference they are presenting at. Zalicus followed suit gaining 6.25% on Monday; volume topped the 3-month average roughly 37%.
     
    Unlike its biotechnology counterparts, Orexigen Therapeutics (NASDAQ:OREX) is still trading well below 52-week highs, but quickly moving higher after being discounted 70% last week. Shares bottomed at $2.5 and have already pierced the $4 mark just four sessions later. The FDA turned back their application for a weight-loss drug that would have essentially 'made' the company. Instead, Orexigen has some work ahead of itself before it can resubmit an application to the Food & Drug Administration and potentially reap approval.
     
    Neoprobe (NEOP) held its own revealing the long wait for listing on the AMEX is no longer a wait at all - shares will begin trading on the NYSE Amex "on or about February 10, 2011". As volume traded was twice that of the 3-month average, shares enjoyed a modest 3.37% rise. The up-listing announcement, however, came out after hours and should give shares a boost this coming session.

    See original post here



    Disclosure: I am long IMUC.

    Additional disclosure: I've been compensated for writing an independent opinion about ImmunoCellular Therapeutics.

    Feb 08 12:00 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Apple's Pullback Nearing End?

    Steve Jobs' absence seems to have trumped powerhouse Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) burly fourth-quarter earnings. Even after beating analysts' estimates by about 19%, Apple shares aren't getting any love. But as historical prices show, the declining stock price isn't anything short of a cyclical pattern.

    Since mid-September, Apple shares have notably declined thrice, excluding the current pull-back. In each of those declining periods shares were 'overbought', according to the Relative Strength Indicator. Generally, an RSI reading above '70' points to overbought conditions in a market.

    AAPL Annotated Chart

    You've probably noticed that the past week's decline has reset RSI below '50'. In other words, shares now trend in an area technical traders consider neither 'overbought' nor 'oversold'. And at this point other technical factors also point to the possibility of a trend reversal.

    Apple shares retraced 6.2% on average, during the three periods of decline since September of 2010 (refer to the chart above). After peaking just above $348 on January 14th, Apple shares have contracted roughly 6.1% as of the close on Friday. This suggests the pull-back is reaching maturation or nearing an end.

    Both an upwards trend-line and a critical level of support lie just below the current market price for Apple stock. $325 represents the top of a channel that previously restrained the price from moving higher. As a breakout above the channel took place, $325 became support. Now the question is whether or not investors will step in and realize a potential buying opportunity.

    I should also mention that following the last three price pull-backs, Apple's shares rose 14%, 6%, and 16%, respectfully. If we aren't poised for further downside, there's only one other direction in which we can go: up.



    Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned, and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
    Tags: AAPL
    Jan 23 5:49 PM | Link | Comment!
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    Dec 22, 2011
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  • $AEZS rallying after a series of favorable news releases pre-market: http://yhoo.it/nH5joE, http://yhoo.it/n8if0Z
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