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Historically, Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO) has trended at or near its 50-day moving average (observe chart below).

Deviation below the 50-day moving average (MA) has commonly resulted in a buying opportunity, as the price tends to adjust back upwards to the 50MA. Now, for the third time since 2007, Northwest Biotherapeutics shares have deviated significantly (~44%) below their historical price average.

Is there reason to believe the price may presently adjust back to the 50MA?

The scent of material news is looming. Recent SEC filings reveal the company has entered into arrangements with private investors to raise capital needed for funding clinical trials of the company’s immunotherapy drug, DCVax, in brain and prostate cancers. As capital shortfalls have plauged clinical development, a financing agreement would be significant enough to bolster shares back to the 50MA, and beyond.

Speculation aside, Northwest Biotherapeutics (NWBO) has returned meaningful data from clinical trials in Glioblastoma (brain) and prostate cancer, respectfully.

Under DCVax®-Brain, median survival of newly-diagnosed patients with glioblastoma, a common form of brain cancer, was 36.4 months, comparing favorably to the standard of care median of just 14.6 months. Treatment of brain cancer under the standard of care would include surgery, radiation therapy and Temodar, a compound distributed by Merck (MRK). Under this care, however, only 26% of patients live beyond two years; more than 69% have survived after being treated with DCVax.

Invariably, Northwest Biotherapeutics’ strides are aimed at a fairly unsatisfied market, where DCVax®-Brain has shown clinical significance (see figures, below).

The end-goal then, perhaps, is a new and superior standard-of-care that includes Northwest Biotherapeutics’ DCVax®-Brain.

DCVax®-Prostate, FDA-cleared to undertake Phase III trials for prostate cancer, competes in a market familiar to Dendreon (DNDN) shareholders. The once small, now $5 Billion biotechnology company found fame in FDA-approved Provenge, which is used to treat prostate cancer. Like Provenge, DCVax®-Prostate is an immunotherapy that "utilizes a patients own dendritic cells, and an antigen or target protein, to induce an immune response”. Without diving into too great detail on the similarities or dissimilarities, the schedule presented (below) speaks volumes about the data collected in earlier trials of DCVax®-Prostate.

Evidently, Northwest Biotherapeutics has a legitimate product candidate for the treatment of both prostate and brain cancer. Should the company strike a deal that will fund late-stage trials, investors may very well begin to wager on the success of this organization. Earlier this year, Amgen (AMGN) acquired privately-held Biovex, a biotechnology firm that was developing a vaccine for head & neck cancer. They were in stage III trials when the pharmaceutical giant took notice and offered $1 Billion to buy them out. Northwest Biotherapeutics’ DCvax has shown efficacy that even Biovex’s vaccine fell short of.

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Disclosure: I am long IMUC.OB.

Additional disclosure: I've been compensated for writing an independent opinion about ImmunoCellular Therapeutics.

Steve Jobs' absence seems to have trumped powerhouse Apple's (AAPL) burly fourth-quarter earnings. Even after beating analysts' estimates by about 19%, Apple shares aren't getting any love. But as historical prices show, the declining stock price isn't anything short of a cyclical pattern.

Since mid-September, Apple shares have notably declined thrice, excluding the current pull-back. In each of those declining periods shares were 'overbought', according to the Relative Strength Indicator. Generally, an RSI reading above '70' points to overbought conditions in a market.



You've probably noticed that the past week's decline has reset RSI below '50'. In other words, shares now trend in an area technical traders consider neither 'overbought' nor 'oversold'. And at this point other technical factors also point to the possibility of a trend reversal.

Apple shares retraced 6.2% on average, during the three periods of decline since September of 2010 (refer to the chart above). After peaking just above $348 on January 14th, Apple shares have contracted roughly 6.1% as of the close on Friday. This suggests the pull-back is reaching maturation or nearing an end.

Both an upwards trend-line and a critical level of support lie just below the current market price for Apple stock. $325 represents the top of a channel that previously restrained the price from moving higher. As a breakout above the channel took place, $325 became support. Now the question is whether or not investors will step in and realize a potential buying opportunity.

I should also mention that following the last three price pull-backs, Apple's shares rose 14%, 6%, and 16%, respectfully. If we aren't poised for further downside, there's only one other direction in which we can go: up.