Timeline Strategy Consulting

What's RIMM's Problem?

@lcpcp - I think that you're leaving too much at the foot of the market and not identifying that RIMM is not managed as well or as robust as AAPL.

To begin, the difference between AAPL and RIMM is that AAPL has lost about 50% of its value since August, while RIMM has lost closer to 70%. That premium (if you will) is the market's way of saying that RIMM is riskier. Look at the past two quarters....(1) RIMM MISSED earnings, admittedly by a tiny margin, in both; (2) true to its conservative guidance nature, AAPL CRUSHED earnings as it has every quarter for years. RIMM is hit or miss with earnings. Even a slowdown will affect AAPL less because the iPhone GAAP accounting insulates them from slowdowns, somewhat.

I do believe that the market is pricing into RIMM the possibility that one of these RIMM earnings announcements will be a real clinker. Like, there will be an earnings call when they will finally need to admit that their market share has dropped and once that news comes out, it's a rush for the exits. I've said it before, think Palm for what will happen to RIMM. Their next earnings call is Dec. 21. They can't seem to get that Storm out, so that will have little if any effect on this quarter.

As a Canadian company, won't RIMM also suffer if the U.S. dollar gains strength against the Canadian Dollar?

Look here for earnings history:
data.cnbc.com/quotes/R...
data.cnbc.com/quotes/A...