Timeline Strategy Consulting

Why You Don't Need an Informational Advantage, Just an Emotional One

Interesting insight. With regard to Apple, I completely agree.

How can analysts, who presumably have access to extensive research and analytical resources, continue to miss the strategic and financial importance of what Apple is doing? It seems like, instead of looking 18-24 months ahead to define winners and losers in specific markets, they look at trailing 1-3 month share price movements and issue upgrades or downgrades based upon those movements.

Case in point - Apple hit $80 or just below in late 2008, and again in January 2009. At each point, rather than looking at the underlying financial condition, strategic position, and growth potential of Apple, many analysts just said 'more of the same', thus depriving anyone who took their advice of a stock at bargain basement pricing.

John Maynard Keynes said something to the effect of trees not growing to the sky, with roots not going to China either. Analysts would be wise to take that advice, and remove the emotion from their judgments.