Timmothy Posey

The Next Crisis Is on the Horizon

Without a doubt we will see awful inflation in 2010, 2011, more so than we've seen in a while, but not 1970's style inflation. From a trading perspective, I'm building a position in commodities (yes, commodities, remember those things from this past summer?) with DBE and of course TIP.

A slower recovery will limit inflation, regardless of the money supply. As banks improve their liquidity and balance sheet, they will most likely repurchase the senior preferred shares that they issued to the gov't, and bailed out institutions like AIG will pay off their loans. This will essentially remove most of the $700b bailout money from the economy. This money would be replaced by higher consumer spending and more loans.

Lastly, consumers probably will not go out and buy homes like they did in the past and use them as ATMs. Those that want homes will probably already have a home. This will limit asset inflation to the core commodities (petroleum and fuel products) initially, and then it'll trickle down to everyday items. But it will prevent rampant speculation in housing in the early 2000's, which will prevent runaway inflation from the 1970s. I'd say 4-7% inflation, but not more than that.

Promising Regional Banks For Patient Investors - Barron's

I'd add Regions Financial (RF) to that list. Great takeover target for one of the big majors, yet they still will be very profitable as a SuperRegional Bank in the Southeast

Morgan Stanley: Not Out of the Woods

Very clueless. And on top of the $9 billion today from Mitsu, Paulson just gave $10 billion to Goldman and Morgan Stanley each. So that's $19 billion in one day. And a blanket guarantee of the bank's debt. Let me guess, that's still not enough?

Morgan Stanley: Not Out of the Woods

Obviously he's short, and obviously he got CRUSHED today. MS is up 76% currently in ONE DAY. How often do you see those types of gains in an investment bank. Plus today is a holiday and we see lower trading volumes.

Felix will of course take the glass-half-empty approach to anything with Morgan Stanley. After predicting their collapse over the weekend (and every day last week as well), we see a big rally and a closing on the $9b deal. And now he is saying "too little, too late." What's next? "Oh, Morgan Stanley doesn't have enough vowels in its name. Therefore it will be nationalized!"?

Get a clue!

Oversold and Melting Up

Today has been light volume, so I wouldn't read too much into things. But I agree that we have a long way back up to revert back to the mean 20-day moving average.

I do expect a retest of the Dow 7800 that was hit intraday on Friday. Until then, I am still mostly in cash.

The Last Days of Morgan Stanley

I was actually hoping TARP give it some money in exchange for preferred shares. Remember, if Merrill Lynch wasn't allowed to fail, I don't think Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs would be as well. We are seeing the fallout of LEH hitting the market with AIG.

And now as a retail bank, MS has better access to the discount window and just about everything else the Fed has available. John Mack is a very smart guy, and I wouldn't be surprised that he wouldn't be able to pull a rabbit out of his hat on this one.

Disclosure: Long MS Senior Unsecured Debt

Morgan Stanley Appears a Little Too Desperate for Cash

Obviously you have a thing out for MS. However, if you read their latest financial statements (and assuming it is correct), they have about $171 billion in cash-like assets, then add on the $9 billion they will get from the Japanese. That leaves them with $180 billion, more than enough to cover all of their Level 3 assets, senior unsecured debt, preferred securities, and liquidity 6 months into the future.

Opportunity in Emerging Markets Amidst This Panic

Today I dipped my toes in the water so to speak by buying 10 more shares of BIK (a low-expense BRIC etf). This magical $140 seems pretty low right now, but I am on a 15-20 year time frame, and I expect dramatic reversal of fortunes. Do I think I properly picked the bottom? By no means did I even try, but tried-and-true techniques such as dollar-cost averaging do play a big part in a long-term portfolio.

Financials Future Still Uncertain

Come on guys, you are all starting to sound like the Chicken Littles from MarketWatch

Raising Margin Requirements May Spike Oil Prices Higher

Speculation can occur without margin. ETFs are cash-based, and any mom-and-pop investor can buy cheap ETFs (DBE is only $50) and without having to take delivery.

DivX Looks into the Future of Web Video

Poor analysis. Speaking from a technology standpoint, DiVX is the format of yesterday's web. Today, Adobe's Flash runs sites like YouTube and other embedded video in today's media. DiVX tried to come out with their own media years ago and it failed. It is now stuck being the format of choice for movie pirates around the world.

Mid-Cap Growth: Charting a New Uptrend?

I like the exposure VV gives me to Large Cap (S&P 500) and also Mid-Cap. Best of both world. 750 of the largest companies...

There Is Plenty to Fear in This Market

I'm still averaging in into the Large Caps with VV, MGV, and SPY, but I do feel like this rally in the past 2-3 weeks have been nothing but short covering. But this is a time in the market where you stick to your strategy. If the market does turn back down for another leg down, then I will still average in.

But to say this whole credit crisis, housing crisis, inflation crisis, unemployment "crisis" is over in 6 months is wildly optimistic.

The Case For 2-1/4

I believe the Fed should also pause the cutting. However, I believe they will not and will cut a quarter point. My hypothesis is that if they pause now, and the worse case scenario is true, and have to cut later, that will send more shockwaves through the market since the market has already priced in a second half recovery.

Imagine if we're in late June and we still get another cut. The whole notion of a recovery will be thrown out the window and the Dow would drop by at least 1,000 points in that scenario. Thus, the Fed will give us a quarter-point as "insurance". But expect a heavy-dose of language geared towards inflationary pressures.

Confusing Volatility With Risk - A Costly Investment Mistake

I disagree on Small-Cap Growth versus Small-Cap value. Compare VBR (Value ETF) versus VBK (Growth). VBK outperforms.

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