Seeking Alpha

Timothy Church

View as an RSS Feed
View Timothy Church's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • eBay: Out with the New, In with the Old [View article]
    Hahaahahaha. Overstock is a flop. They had EVERYTHING in place to overtake ebay, and they blew it.
    Ebay can be the next overstock.com for all i care. But, yeah, it's hilarious to watch ebay try to become just as good as "second rate" sites. They were number one, WHY would they want to imitate losers?
    Tim
    forums.delphiforums.co...
    myspace.com/boycottebay


    On Mar 18 10:06 AM leapingcat wrote:

    > Well, last year Ebay failed to become the next Amazon, this year
    > no doubt they will fail to become the next Overstock.com. They seem
    > to be rapidly running out of business models to fail at!
    Mar 21 09:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay Inc. Q4 2008 Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    I need some anti-dizziness meds. Nothing spun me round faster than JD.

    Market Anylists: Can you ask the REAL questions? Like, "If eBay's decline is due to the macro economy, WHY did Amazon have their BEST Christmas EVER?"

    Please join the ebay boycott!
    It IS working,
    Tim
    forums.delphiforums.co...
    myspace.com/boycotteba...
    Jan 24 01:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 2008: The Year eBay Lost Its Mojo [View article]
    There's nothing bogus here. What's bogus is eBay's manipulating numbers. Watch as I explain:
    1. Buy.com was nothing on ebay, before March. Suddenly they are taking up over 40% of the listings in the Books Category. FORTY PERCENT!
    2. Based solely on the absolute lowest listing fee, Buy should have paid about $25 MILLION in listing fees. A heck of a lot more when we count all the higher listing fees that would have cost us $4! (Based on the numbers I obtained from Terapeak.com, March 2nd thru May 31st 2008)
    3. Their Final Value fees would have generated merely $165,000, based on the average sale price of $44.43; their 90 day sales totaled less than $4 million.
    4. Their sell through rate was merely 2.39% far below that of the average ebay seller.
    5. Imagine other Buy's on eBay, each listing 40% in their respective categories.
    Last investigation, Buy had closed hundreds on auctions early at 1:00am. Altho this was discovered by an accident, it brought attention to an interesting fact:
    Buy had closed hundreds and hundreds of auctions (including Dutch auctions-- multiple quanities of an item) because the items were no longer available.
    6. EBay states the traffic has not gone down much.
    What they are failing to state is how many sales are being made. They're also failing to state how much lower sales are and have been since the first boycott in Feb. and the current boycott which started May 1st, and will continue until further notice.
    7. Ebay is claiming their decline in stock is due to a bad economy. No, that is part, I will conceed, but, a large part is the boycott that IS working.
    Ebay counts ANY sale as successful. Sellers count any sale that brings a profit successful. You decide for yourself which is successful:
    A. A $100 item listed on ebay with free shipping for 99 cents and sells for $10, and costs $15 to ship.
    B. A $100 item listed on ebay for $100 and sells for $150, with $15 s/h fees.
    Of course, after greed is taken into account and all the ebay and paypal fees are paid, probably neither is successful.
    Here's a perfect example. A seller sells a lot of figures for $200. In that lot are figures that cost $15 plus tax retail. At $200 the seller breaks even, loses the tax paid, and loses the fees paid to ebay and paypal. In the meantime, that lot included rare figures that were sold on Amazon for $200 a piece! Not all; but, 2 did, and the least expensive used to sell on ebay for $30. Now the seller sold the items for $15 each!
    You can buy into ebay spin if you like, but those are the hard cold facts. Sellers are not selling items for more, they are selling for less. Of course, there are always exceptions. But, when the majority of items are selling far below what they were, I do not consider this a success.



    On Dec 19 07:11 AM DDUCK025 wrote:

    > This is now the second bogus article I've read from seeking alpha
    > on eBay. You guys seem to think that EBAY IS always going down? But
    > Traffic Stats as well as Sales say otherwise. You supply opinionated
    > and not factual responses.
    Dec 21 06:06 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay Q3: What it Means for Sellers [View article]
    Ebay is supposed to be recession proof.
    What is happening here is a direct result of the ebay boycotts this year. First, the week-long Feb. 18-25, and then the second, and open-ended May 1st & Beyond boycott.

    There's only so often a company can tick people off and not face backlash. As shown above, the fees are outrageous. I'm a small seller, at best. Mostly i buy. But, when I do sell, ebay and it's partner in crime, PayPal takes between 30 and 65% of my profits. Not to begrudge the greedy bastards anything, I do want to make it perfectly clear that for that extremely high fee, they offer very little in return. Phone support? ONLY for the exclusive few. Technical issues? Try Live Help. Or, better yet, wait several days for a canned response, and reply, wait several more days, and HOPE they actually answer the question you asked. Complaint? Hang on while they open the trap floor.
    On the otherhand, ebay can continue to raise their fees, and shame on you if you try to cut that fee by raising your fees. And now ebay is trying to ask sellers to offer FREE shipping? Imagine what Dumaho would say if we suggested they allow us to list for free, no listing fees no final value fees.
    Now ebay is placing competitive ads in the search engines? Ads to OFF-SITE sales! which then take away from sales of legitimate fee paying sellers?
    And people have the nerve to ask, "Why is ebay stock down?" Or, have the idea that "Oh, it's just bad economy"? No, it isn't bad economy. It's bad management, and bad strategy, and worse implementation.
    Of course, this IS the same company that is giving buy.com a fortune in listing fees (My best guess was $25 MILLION from March 2-May 31st of this year; but, that is based on them paying only 10 cent listing fees. Of course, they had many which qualified for the $4 fee, but, I conservatively counted all at 10 cents, to come up with $25 MILLION! Sales during the same period? Less than $4 million! FVFs would have been about $165,000. So, it's good business to give up $25 MILLION plus to gain $165,000? Only on planet ebay. Or, if you're trying to con investors and anylists into thinking the boycott has had no affect on listings. THEN MAYBE Buy's 40% of all items listed in the Books categories makes sense.
    The boycott IS working!
    Tim
    forums.delphiforums.co...
    myspace.com/boycotteba...
    Oct 24 12:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay's Best Bargain - Itself [View article]
    Sorry, PO, ebay is no bargain.
    Ebay is a very risky investment right now; unless someone has the means of buying up the majority shares.

    Ebay has placed itself in a position to be sued and on an plethora of issues.
    Imagine it.
    1. Ebay has always claimed they were a "middle man", therefore not responsible for what sellers do or say. But now, ebay is interferring with the feedback process. They have removed negative feedback, which now seems to qualify them for being responsible, and no longer allows them to hide behind the "middle man only" argument.
    2. Ebay and/or PayPal is already being sued for not honoring their buyer protection when not paying by credit card. A settlement offer of 3.5 million is being considered.
    3. Will ebay be sued for accepting fees on multiple listings, but, not displaying all of them?
    4. Will ebay get sued again for holding payments. They already had a $10 million settlement.
    5. Will ebay be held liable for forseeing the potential for being extorted, and allowing it?
    6. Ebay is being held liable for counterfeit items sold on their sites. They lost a case in France, and won one in NY. How many more cases will be made against ebay?
    7. Ebay has made a backdoor deal with Buy.com; you can see the details here: www.youtube.com/watch?...
    These numbers were taken from Terapeak and are based on a 90 day history (March 2, 2008-May 31, 2008. The most current info at the time of publishing):
    Seller: Buy (Buy.com)
    Dates: March 2, 2008-May 31, 2008
    Total Items Listed: 2,708,987
    Total sales: $3,924,907
    Successful listings: 64,638
    Total Items Offered: 249,431,285
    Sell through rate: 2.39%
    Average Sale: $44.43
    MINIMUM listing fee, including dutch auctions: $24,943,128.50 (Based on the lowest fee of .10 per listing, and offering Media Mail. Does not include higher listing fees, or other promotional listing fees, or Final Value Fees, which would increase the fees dramnatically).
    I am looking to see if these actions are a violation of The Sherman Act. It sure seems like it applies.

    I'm sorry, OP, I just don't see how ebay is all that great a bargain. Ebay has managed to alienate it's customer base, and although boycotts are not new to ebay and it's young history, i have never seen ebay boycotted by the community twice in one year, and never to the point where many would be willing to boycott ebay in an open-ended boycott, as they are doing currently, and have been since (officially) May 1st, and some as far back as Feb.

    As they say with any bargain, you get what you pay for.
    Tim
    myspace.com/boycotteba...
    Sep 1 02:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay's Latest Screw-Up [View article]
    Et Tu:
    there's a reason recessions hit when 2 term presidents leave office: recessions tend to hit every 7 years.
    The exception, the Reagan/Bush years. That was delayed 3 years. But, there was the recession after Jimmy Carter, when Reagan took office. So, whether Reaganomics worked or not, is not a definite. It pushed back recession 3 years, but, it made things worse, probably. But, the 80's were prosperous times for most people. (Myself not included. lol). Btw, if all things go "right" we should be out of this recession by next year, and 2015 will be our next recession. Regardless who gets in, and for how long.
    Aug 8 02:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • eBay's Latest Screw-Up [View article]
    To those who are not sympathetic towards the boycott efforts, please understand, most of the sellers who are boycotting are hard working, honest sellers who are tired of being screwed over by eBay.
    As the largest organizer of the current boycott efforts, I can assure you, there are many great buyers and sellers involved. I see many of them on a daily basis. And, let me assure you, while I do sell on ebay, I am mostly a buyer. As such, I understand both sides very well.

    Why we are boycotting:
    1. Feedback changes.
    The proposed changes are more harmful than beneficial:
    A. Sellers will no longer be allowed to leave negative feedback.
    B. Feedback older than 12 months will no longer be displayed.
    2. DSR (Detailed Seller Ratings) tied to search positioning.
    A. Ebay is unjustly red-flagging good sellers as bad sellers, by stating sellers with a 4.0 rating (On a scale of 1-5) as having "low ratings", implying they are bad.
    B. Ebay would rather keep real bad sellers, because they earn money.
    3. 21 Day Hold for PayPal Payments on "Risky" sellers, or listing in "Risky categories".
    What is considered "Risky"?
    A. Sellers with less than 100 feedback.
    B. Video Games is considered a "risky category". Even well established sellers selling in this and other "risky" categories will be subjected to a 21 day hold.
    C. Sellers with 5% negatives in a 30 day period. (Extenuating circumstances? Tough luck. Unreasonable buyer demands? Tough luck. Shipping service errors? Too bad).
    4. Unreasonable Fee increases.
    A. Promoted as Fee decreases, Ebay actually increased fees. While dropping most insertion fees by a nickel, they raised the Final Value Fees by as much as 66%
    B. Reserve fees no longer refunded.
    C. Store Final Value Fees increased to 12% on top of monthly fees, and listing fees.
    D. Other fees increases of $20 and more.
    5. Dishonest listings used to increase ebay's listing totals:



    These numbers were taken from Terapeak and are based on a 90 day history (March 2, 2008 - May 31, 2008) the most current info at the time of publishing:
    Seller: Buy
    Total Items Listed: 2,708,987
    Total sales: $3,924,907
    Successful listings: 64,638
    Total Items Offered: 249,431,285
    Sell through rate: 2.39%
    Average Sale: $44.43
    MINIMUM listing fee, including dutch auctions: $24,943,128.50 (Based on the lowest fee of .10 per listing, and offering Media Mail. Does not include higher listing fees, or other promotional listing fees, or Final Value Fees, which would increase the fees dramnatically).

    We can now add a 6th point,
    6. Ebay is charging sellers for each item listed, but, only showing one.

    This is wrong. And, as a poster previously alluded, it seems the sole purpose here is to increase the transactional fees generated by paypal.

    Sellers have a right to be angry over these changes. Buyers have a right to be angry over these changes. Are there bad sellers? Of course there are. But, ebay pretends they are about protecting buyers. They ARE NOT! They're about making as much money as possible, and screw everyone else. IF ebay REALLY wanted to protect a buyer, they would do several simple things to ensure buyers are legitimately protected.
    1. They'd offer coverage for all buyers, for all sellers. Much like Amazon does. No excluding sellers that fall below 98% feedback rating.
    2. They'd quit playing the "risky seller" game.
    Here ebay still allows a "risky seller" to list on ebay, collecting their fees, but, they require PayPal, and will hold their funds for up to 21 days; 180 days in some cases; al the while, theyre collecting interest, not paying any.
    Instead of kicking real risky sellers, ebay keeps them. Why? Because ebay earns a fortune off them; and, if they are really risky sellers, chances are, they don't qualify for ebay/paypal's so called buyer protection.

    I'm completely confused by those who think people have no right to boycott ebay. Or, to make noise, bringing these efforts to the attention of everyone. They claim to be tired of hearing these issues, they think all the sellers simply want to not offer customer service, and that is just not the case.
    -Sellers are tired of the annual fee increases.
    -Sellers don't want to be blackmailed and extorted.
    One seller made a claim earlier this year that she sold two skirts to a buyer, and the buyer requested they be shipped asap, because they were needed for a play. Even though that seller already did her postal run for the day, because it was the weekend, and felt sympathy for the buyer's needs, she packed up the skirts and took them to the PO that same day. The buyer thanked the seller for the rush delivery, but, no longer needed the skirts. As a result, the buyer asked not for a refund, but, to have the seller BUY back the skirts at a higher price, "plus s/h, of course". The buyer anxiously awaited her response, stating, "Your feedback depends on your response, oh, and, now that you can't leave a negative for me, there's nothing you can do about it".
    I've received and read more situations like this than I care to admit. Ebay says "This is rare, and we have tools designed to report these situations". However, I state, "ONCE is too often. Esp. when this is foreseeable". And, I also cite Bill Cobb's final Town Hall session, where he said, "Just because someone reports this, does not mean we will take action immediately". Ie, ebay will NOT do anything, until this has happened repeatedly!
    -Sellers work hard to get paid. Ebay gets THEIR money or they block the seller from selling. PayPal takes THEIR cut right from the top. Why should sellers have to wait to get THEIR money?

    Think ebay is all that noble a company? Watch this video, and see for yourself. www.youtube.com/watch?...
    To do cheap and free research, sign in at ebay, do a completed search for user BUY, and see how their sell thru rate is for the past 7 days. If you're interested in a more thorough investigation, terapeak charges $15 a month, and you can see the most current information for yourself. It was the best $15 i ever spent! There may be cheaper alternatives; maybe even free ones. But the point is, dont take my word for these numbers, take a look for yourself.

    Finally, to answer the question, "If not ebay, where?"
    To more effectively serve sellers, we felt it necessary to limit the sites we support. In the past, we have all packed up our shops, listed anywhere, and returned to ebay.
    Because this is a long term boycott, we felt it necessary to unite buyers and sellers, and have as few places to direct buyers to as possible, while still offering some flexibility.
    Biycotters chose the following sites:
    1. Onlineauction.com
    2. IOffer.com
    3. Etsy.com (craft and hand made items only)
    4. Ecrater.com

    Please join the boycott efforts.
    Tim
    myspace.com/boycotteba...
    forums.delphiforums.co...
    Aug 8 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
7 Comments
7 Likes