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Timothy Clarke

 
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  • SPY: Fed 1, Bears 0 - Why 'Tapered' Quantitative Easing Will Still Drive The Market Higher [View article]
    Thank you for the positive words, Kevin. I do mention FED interest rates, in the last sentence of the first paragraph, and the first.sentence of the fourth paragraph. I explain why low interest rates have helped us avoit deflation thus far. If the FED stated that interest rates were due to change I would go into it further, but according to their latest statement, they will stay the same for the foreseeable future. See the link at the bottom of the first paragraph. This decision will help foster the continued economic growth we have seen over the past several years. I would also contend that quantitative easing, not interest rates, have been the main propeller of the market for the last year. We saw nearly unprecedented 26% growth after we started the program.
    Jan 1 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY: Fed 1, Bears 0 - Why 'Tapered' Quantitative Easing Will Still Drive The Market Higher [View article]
    I respect your advertisement, but if you read the article closely my friend, you will see that I specifically mention buying market pullbacks like the one that happened in early December. I personally use a combination of correlating market indicators after a low (I'm a big fan of breakout bars, like the move that happened on 18 December) to initiate a new position. Perhaps I can go into the methodology in a separate article later on in the year, but the focus of this particular article is "Market Outlook," and that's what it covers. However, I'd like to take this opportunity to reiterate my view in the article that investors should take advantage of pullbacks in the market. If you are already long in the market, I believe it is prudent to hold current positions in order to take advantage of improving economic conditions, and initiate new ones when the opportunity presents itself. All long theses are contingent on continuously favorable economic conditions - individual investors should monitor the specified announcements on the dates listed at the bottom of the article to ensure conditions still move in their favor.
    Dec 28 08:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY: Fed 1, Bears 0 - Why 'Tapered' Quantitative Easing Will Still Drive The Market Higher [View article]
    Good catch! Unfortunate typo, MWR. Fortunately, that does not affect the validity of the thesis. I respect your view, but our stimulus is far from moderate, historically speaking. We have the "loosest" monetary policy in the world, and the loosest sustainable policy in the history of the world. Due to the fact that our debts are all in American dollars, we can pay them off with the "click of a mouse." No other country in the world would be able to print money like we are printing right now, because their currency would devalue to the point that it would be impossible to pay off their debts. Since all American debts are in American dollars, they are a fixed amount. This is why we are able to have such a liberal monetary policy, and I think we are doing a good job of exploiting of this fact. As far as the population of the United States, I think it will steadily grow due to increasing immigration. According to current statistics on this matter, our population should be over 430 million by 2050. http://bit.ly/1bv4elt
    I agree that the decreasing amount of baby boomers will affect our population, but according to the data, immigration will fill in that gap. I am personally not worried about a decreasing population affecting our economy, because according to the statistics, it is not decreasing.
    Dec 28 05:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY: Fed 1, Bears 0 - Why 'Tapered' Quantitative Easing Will Still Drive The Market Higher [View article]
    Thanks again for your opinion, and I understand your point. I agree that the market is headed up, and deflation will be in check in 2014. I also agree that the ECB could issue a looser monetary policy in order to promote loans and increase money supply - this would promote a stronger European economic recovery.
    Dec 27 03:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • SPY: Fed 1, Bears 0 - Why 'Tapered' Quantitative Easing Will Still Drive The Market Higher [View article]
    Stephen, thank you for your contribution. I agree with your first statement, and the article states that the dollar increased in value in response to the FED's policy this summer, which is not consistent with traditional economic theory. The article goes on to explain that it has only recently come down .2% below its January 2013 level. I'm not sure I understand your argument about the ECB - the ECB issues no central bonds, therefore it is impossible for them to implement a bond-buyback program. Furthermore, less use of the dollar would promote deflation, not inflation. http://bit.ly/19Qt972 Thirdly, the value of the dollar and the rate of inflation are two separate things: the CPI and PCE measure how much money businesses and households in the U.S. are spending on goods and services, including those produced in the United States. This does not necessarily relate to international currency levels. This is why the CPI has remained stable over the last month, while the dollar has increased. They are not directly proportional.
    Dec 27 02:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Holiday Credit Boon - How MasterCard Can Boost Your Bottom Line [View article]
    Thanks for the feedback! And it's not too late to get into Mastercard, the market looks like it's taking a short-term to intermediate downturn in the coming weeks, and you could use it to get into the stock, as it's still $80 away from its price target.
    Dec 3 06:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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