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Timothy F. McCarthy  

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  • Economic Growth In China Weakest Since Start Of 2009 [View article]
    I agree with Ben Gee. I just find it hard to use the word "weak" when the China is still growing at 7%, a number that most of the world would love.

    From a broader perspective, one could say that it is good that China is now moderating its high growth but still remaining a growth country.
    Oct 22, 2014. 12:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India - The Week After The Party [View article]
    Normally, i dont engage in predicting exact markets as given how irrational sentiment can be, I dont think it is helpful. However, for the long term investor that likes to select countries and then invest a little each year, there are positive indicators for India, even though it has recently risen. For instance, given that the Indian economy might likely growth 5.5% through next FY ( 2014-2015) this will naturally have a positive impact on the stock market ther. Also, market cap to GDP in bull makret years often ranged from 90% to over 100%. This metric would indicate that the market still has the potential to rise an additional 10-13%. So, overall, it is not a bad time to continue to 'trickle" into India. Hope this helps.

    Jun 9, 2014. 03:55 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • India - The Week After The Party [View article]
    Great question, rc patrick. If I look at what has actually worked in the past, leading by example is often the most powerful weapon a leader can use. If he keeps on making sure that he and his entourage keep "clean", then it will empower the forces within govt. to enforce the laws and penalize the abusers. So far, that has been his practice. I would add though that personally, my experience has been that the larger the population of a country, the harder corruption is to eliminate. Even the US ranks worse than such places as Singapore and the Netherlands on a variety of corruption scales. Thus, so long as locals and global participants see clear progress, it wont hold back economic growth.
    May 30, 2014. 04:33 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • India - The Week After The Party [View article]
    HI Ben Gee.

    This comment was based on the recent research by the FT which showed on a PPP basis, India can now be considered the third largest economy. However, to your point, there can be some debate as to which assumptions one should make as to economic size by country.
    May 30, 2014. 04:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time For Long-Term Investors To Look At India [View article]
    hi all
    loved your comments and in particular, "finance ministers' reference to Kochin in Karela. Indeed, it is a beautiful place to visit and the wealth from workers going over seas has really helped the economy, but at the same time, it is not as friendly an environment for foreign investors and projects as other regions in India.

    RE 'jonpay's comment' i agree; i hate article that come out "after the horse is out of the barn" so to speak! Indeed, i actually wrote this article weeks ago before we knew the outcome of the election and even after it got posted, with the confirming news, a lot of rise happened afterward. But anyway, i should not that i am focusing on the long term accumulation oriented "Investment Pocket" approach, per my book, "The Safe Investor" in all article I write. So, in this case, eg especially if someone is in their 30s or 40s, accumulating a small portion of their total portfolio, eg. maybe as little as a 1/4 or 1/2 % per year over the next eg 5 or 10 years should help in getting some diversification both away from over exposure to the China Region and the "Old Developed countries".

    Hope this helps.


    May 20, 2014. 09:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Ways To Optimize Your Retirement Accounts [View article]
    Excellent comments, Walter.

    I actually follow what you first say, ie i do tend to rebalance out when an asset class has risen so much that i am not out of balance. RE living expenses, so long as a portion of your investment pocket is in low risk assets, eg more than a quarter, you likely won't need more than 1 to 2 years of living expenses in the savings pocket, ir no risk savings. I always like to know what my non discretionary expenses are as that is my " must have" money. The important thing though especially the first 10 years afterretirement is to keep sufficient funds in the growth or volatile assets such as equities so you are getting the growth you need as you or your spouse may easily live into your 90s. Good luck ! Tim
    Apr 30, 2014. 04:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ukraine Crisis: U.S. LNG Can Help, But Not The Way People Think [View article]
    Solid work, Soltan.
    Even if people disagree, you are at least a strong proponent using more objective analysis and content rich proposals to come up with an approach that doesnt end up in a disaster. Thank you for at least trying to be a voice of reason.

    Mar 17, 2014. 07:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Ways To Optimize Your Retirement Accounts [View article]
    To "Nick" and "Retail Investors" point, within the individual investment types,after the asset investment allocation decision is made, but before actually investing in which account, an investor should consider trying where easy, to put the higher annual tax generating products into the tax differed. And since the tax deferred accounts often max out for many investors, it can be wise to have some lower tax rate dividend funds actually in the taxable accounts, per Nick's point.
    And for the more complex investment structures, especially with considerable funds, "retail investors" decision criteria is well done to prepare before you sit down with your tax advisor.

    thank you

    Mar 9, 2014. 11:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Ways To Optimize Your Retirement Accounts [View article]
    I agree, the topic is more a book on retirements rather than an article. and it is def worth at least getting basic advice as i covered in a reply below crossing not only income taxes but also estate planning. The book by McGraw Hill on "Retirement Planning" is a good one to look at as well.
    Thank you for taking the time to reply.

    Mar 9, 2014. 11:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Ways To Optimize Your Retirement Accounts [View article]
    like your idea about considering the avoidance RMD, eg in your late 60's. wish i could have written longer as hard to get in all considerations.
    thankyou, Mike. Tim
    Mar 9, 2014. 11:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Ways To Optimize Your Retirement Accounts [View article]
    I agree with you and in fact, it is one of the most important tenants of my book, "eliminate Single Points of Failure". meaning that having diversity ,even you sacrifice a little yield for a minority portion of your investments is wise.

    Thank you for bringing it up

    Mar 9, 2014. 11:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Ways To Optimize Your Retirement Accounts [View article]
    To further follow up with more explanation, I think you can start with a cascade of the dimensions you have to check out. Many of them are quite personal but really start with:

    - how much do i have left ?

    - how much will I spend?

    - re possible health costs, do i have a separate reserve set up to cover at least a likely cost for my spouse and me?

    - do i need some kind of reserve for my kids in case i decide they need help?

    Questions then move onto the disciplines like:

    - cap gains tax wise, what is the cost basis of my various assets and investments?
    One of the most miserable guesses we have to make in our lives is "can we wait to sell the house until one of us dies, so we get a stepped up basis?" normally, i am against reverse mortgages, but in this case, it is at least a valid consideration in order to delay the sale and a load of taxes.

    - estimate your tax rate, state and fed. over the next several years. naturally space the income out to get into lower brackets if u can. hav i done a projection of how i am going to remove money from the tax deferred accounts and seen the impact? and asked my accountant if there are any other simulations of withdrawel i shold consider after tax?

    - Do i really understand all the estate tax implications both fed and state?

    - are my trusts up to date with any recent law changes?

    - within the tax deferred accounts, am i adjusting the risk profile of the investments slowly as I age??

    In sum, it is wise once a year, to sit down with your tax accountant, investment advisor and trust atty. and make sure you have adjusted according to all the law changes.

    hope this helps.

    Mar 9, 2014. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Ways To Optimize Your Retirement Accounts [View article]
    I agree with your comment and I think the same way. perhaps we should change the old expresion to: "A spreadsheet/flow chart/decision tree is worth a 1,000 words."

    Thank you

    Mar 9, 2014. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Ways To Optimize Your Retirement Accounts [View article]
    I agree. Per your point, we should perhaps change the old expression to
    "A spreadsheet/flow chart/decision tree is worth a 1,000 words."

    thank you. Tim
    Mar 9, 2014. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment