Timothy O'Rourke

Timothy O'Rourke
Contributor since: 2011
Thanks for all of that info Charles!
After some more digging, you are right. The article I read had a typo and said the payable date and date of record were the same thing. The day of record is the 17th of December and the Ex-Dividend date is the 15th.
You are correct; TROW declared a a special $1.00 dividend with an Ex-Dividend date of December 26th.
Thanks for your input!
Thanks,great catch! I missed that news release.
MaxPSA,
You are correct. I apologize for the typos. Hopefully the information being conveyed mad it through.
Perhaps I am misunderstanding something, but Google Finance has El Paso's P/E listed as 1000. What am I missing here?
I must say Nicu, you are right. I am shocked that there was not more of a Steve Jobs factor in the stock. Perhaps I should just start buying...
WSP,
As far as understanding the markets...aren't you the guy you was instructing me how to play the markets like you played poker as a professional poker player? I think you said something like "you have to guess what the other players at the table are holding..."
If this is someone else, you have my apologies.
Nicu,
There must be a lot of blind squirrels that have taken advantage of a sad event (writing about Steve Jobs resignation).
Anyway, thank you for the reasons why Apple are so favorable. Again I agree that based solely on the numbers Apple's a great buy (especially after a pullback)and have even mentioned that above. I do not think the markets act solely based on numbers though. I also do not think those numbers guaranty future success.
WallStreetpete,
Thank you for admiring my enthusiasm. While my article's numbers were old, they were used to show that Apple's fast increase in sale/net income would be hard to replicate over time. The newer number lead to the same conclusion.
I pointed out three things that I thought could affect Apple's price. One will affect it today.
As for back up to my point, I would show the futures contracts that have apple down 4.5-5.0%. That equals about 52 billion dollars, according to SA editor Yigal Grayeff.
Nicu,
You are right, there is no way to know what will happen tomorrow. I also think that you analysis of Apple today was great. Thank you! I have a couple of questions about the numbers, but all in all, I thought it was very well done. If you have the time, would you mind filling us in on how the numbers were gathered and put together. A materials and methods section of your paper, if you will.
What I do not understand, and tried to address in this article, is the Apple-mania that some investors feel for this company. It is a great company, no doubt. But I really do not understand why you would call me a blind squirrel for saying people should remember why they invested in this stock and to sell it when that objective is met, like all other investments? Maybe that did not come out in my original article, but that was what I was attempting to say.
I would also agree that a pullback would be a great time to buy. With a p/e around 11 value investors might even start jumping in. I would wait a couple of days to let the dust settle though.
Others, not just me, have now said that "the glorious growth days at Apple may well be over" but as you said no one know what will happen tomorrow. To read that article on Marketwatch go to www.marketwatch.com/st....
I really do hope you all fair well with Apple. As you can read above people who have commented on this article have millions invested.
Hi all,
Just thought I would talk a little about the point that no one commented on last week when I published this piece. That Steve Jobs retiring would at the least cause volatility for the short term.
You all have pointed out that the numbers I found online were not the latest, and that rare earths would not cause as much of an impact as I thought it might. Very good points, one and all.
The point of this article was that people should remember the reasons why they invested in Apple and sell when those objectives were met. I then pointed to three hurtles Apple would have to face, in my opinion.
Hope everyone's investments fair well tomorrow.
While Apple and Google pay no dividends, each share is a piece of a business that produces income, something each investor has a proportionate share of. That is what people are paying for with each stock. Last I checked, gold was not being used for the properties you mentioned, dreadlordnaf.
Got a quick question for all you pundits at SA. I do not understand investing in gold. It seems to me like a "bigger suckers" game. You buy gold and hope to find a "bigger sucker" who will pay more for it than you did so you make a profit.
Warren Buffet once said that if aliens ever land on the earth and see what we do with gold they would think we are crazy. We dig it up over here, buy it, and put it in a room over there. We never do anything with it.
I am interested to hear your thoughts on this...
Tim
Hi YoureAclown,
I would agree with you if I was only going to short the companies in the IWN that had obvious problems by a share. Perhaps I did not say that clearly, I think I did say I would go into that more in the future though.
My point is the IWN's return can be increased by shorting companies that fundamentally do not add up to their stock price similarly to the way that DFA only purchases the stocks it "likes" with its money. Please stay in touch to see how the portfolio turns out, I am sure you will let me know if you were "someone who knows what they're takig about. ;)
Hi Donzelion,
I am sorry that you took this article to be an attempt at hooking the gullible (I must have forgotten where I solicited other peoples money for this). I also do not plan on beating DFA at their own game as you say, just showing people that different takes by the mutual fund companies offer advantages. Lets not forget that the article was a rebuttal to an article that called mutual fund companies parasites.
Hi Reelken,
Thank you for your comments on this article, but you might have missed the point. The purpose of this article was to rebut an op/ed piece saying mutual funds are parasites, ect... By saying that I have taken a hypothetical illustration that is not "real world" I do not think that you are following what I was doing. I was pointing out that not all mutual funds companies are created equal.
Hi James,
Thank you for the thoughtful article. I would be very careful with Kronos. Not too long ago I published an article on SA that looked at length at Kronos's parent company Valhi. Valhi was using its subs (KRO included) to purchase millions of dollars worth of its shares and had pumped up the holding company to a PE ratio of 87, if memory serves. Here is a link to that article, if you would like to take a look: seekingalpha.com/artic....
I also reference the SA article (in the above article) that talks about KRO buying large amounts of VHI stock.
Cheers! Happy investing.
I think that some have missed the point of this article. It seems as though people forget investing 101 when it comes to Apple. Invest in a stoc with a goal in mind, and when that goal is reached sell and lock in gains. I do no tunderstand the perception with Apple that it will continue to turn thousandairs into millionairs and millionairs into billionairs because it has made som much money in the past.
As I have already said I am not an analyst for this sector, and may have pointed to some nieve reasons for Apple to stumble, if you did not like mine, others have added thier thoughts in the comments.
Hi all,
As many of you pointed out the numbers I found online were old. apple is over $100B in sales, and net income for 2011 is going to be as higher than I stated as well. My point about growth is still valid in my opinion...
Tim
True. I must say that the rare earth's comments seem to be drawing a lot of fire. I am not an analyst for this sector, I was trying to point out that Apple grows larger and larger it will need more more and more raw materials and that could lead to supply chain issues.
Sorry all, I did not title this article. The SA editors changed what I originally titled it. The answer to your question, in my opinion, is when you have reached your goal for this stock. I always have a target in mind when I buy a stock, and sell when that target is reached. I n some of the comments below, people have investing in Apple has made them millionaires. You only have those millions to spend when you lock in your gains by selling though...
Hi Nicu,
While my $14 billion number might be too conservative, it was the point that the most conservative number I found online was 14 billion in profit for the year, and that was a 700% increase in six years. If I used the 19.3B that you are talking about a a 970% increase in six years.
As for the rest of your feedback, it is quite good. Thank you for adding to the conversation. I do think that my points about the Chinese controlling the rare earth market and that might cut into Apple's margins and/or price are on point though.
Tim
Great article, I learned a lot! Thank you.
While I agree index funds are the way to go, I take exception with one thing; Swenson is essentially a manager of an actively managed mutual fund. If he can beat the markets with an average yield of 18.5% for the last twenty years why should I not look for a manager that can do that for my retirement?
I am not so sure the apple you are talking about did not die. When Steve Jobs was brought back in to save the company he did, but he did so by essentially created a new company.
Hi Varan,
Thank you for adding some numbers to my strategy. I know where I will put my money next May...
Hi Champ,
I like what you have to say...I think the thing to remember is most crashes/corrections have taken place between May and November. You can lock in profits you have made by selling out and missing a correction.
Just my thoughts...
Wow rtakacs,
Thank you for the book recommendation. I look forward to reading Brainwashing of the american investor.
Hi Graham and Dodd,
I have always thought that simple strategies were easier to execute than complicated ones, and that is what I am looking for as an individual investor.
I also followed your link on your bio to Carryl Capital Management, but a tool and die company was all that was on that site. I would love to find out more about your views on value investing could you provide a current link?
Thanks!
Hi Amateur,
While I value your opinions, I am not sure I can agree with your evaluations of the emerging markets. In the long term almost 3 billion people are becoming part of the world economy (China, India, Brazil along). I think that will fuel the economy for a long time to come.
Hi rtakacs,
Would you be able to go into the market internals a little? Do do not have much experience with the technical indicators you are referring to.