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Timothy Pereira

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  • Why You Should Buy Apple Now [View article]
    I linked every one of Horace's charts to the original article if you click on the image. It seemed like a reasonable way to reference at the time because on SA there doesn't seem to be a good way to title a chart with links or to reference or footnote as one would traditionally. However, since the links were missed by you (and thus likely many others) next time I'll find a more obvious way to do it. It was never my intention to take credit for others' work.
    Mar 11 07:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Apple Now [View article]
    Thanks a lot! That is an interesting perspective on long-term charts. I agree that in many ways Apple is now a different company but I have found that in some cases stocks still trade based on those charts even when the company is very different later on. I think Blackberry is one example of that, with $20 being support in 2005 and 2006 and now being tough resistance for the stock. My intention was to show the decline in a way that made it seem more normal rather than as the end of an era. Thanks for the comment.
    Mar 11 02:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Apple Now [View article]
    I think you're quite right but I still think Apple should, and likely will come out with a phone targeting the prepaid market. Tim Cook has alluded to this before:

    Gene Munster - Piper Jaffray Companies
    And a question first on the iPhone. Demand, obviously, has been phenomenal. And if we look down the road at the opportunity in the post- versus the prepaid markets, are there any considerations that you can share in terms of -- that you weigh, in terms of price or subsidies or growing market share in this large prepaid market?

    Timothy Cook - Chief Operating Officer
    Gene, it's Tim. Our focus has very much been on China. We wanted to understand that market and understand the levers there. And as I said before, we're -- iPhone sales were up over 3x during the quarter. And in the first half, we did over 5 -- just slightly under $5 billion in Greater China in revenue, which is about 10% of Apple, to put it in perspective. And it wasn't but a couple of years ago that, that number would have been less than 2. And so it's a sea change. And that's certainly not, what I would call, a classic post-pay market by any means of the imagination. And so we have some ideas about other countries as well. I'm not in a position that I want to share those today. But we purposely put the bulk of our emphasis from an emerging market point of view on China to really learn, and then we're going to take that learning to other markets.

    Gene Munster - Piper Jaffray Companies
    Would you know if China, if more than half of -- do you know if more than half of China is prepaid?

    Timothy Cook - Chief Operating Officer
    I think considerably more than half of China's prepaid, Gene. I think the first digit would start with a 9.
    http://seekingalpha.co...

    And then assuming Sacconaghi is accurately describing Cook:

    While Tim stopped short of explicitly stating that Apple would pursue a lower price iPhone, he did state that Apple was working hard to “figure out” the prepaid market and that Apple didn’t want its products to be “just for the rich,” but “for everyone”; he also stated that Apple “understood price is big factor in the prepaid market” and that the company was “not ceding any market.” Cook noted that Apple executives – including himself – had spent “huge energy” in China, noting that it is “a classic prepaid market.” He further noted that the handset distribution model was poorly constructed and that Apple would look to “innovate” and do “clever” things in addressing that market.
    http://on.wsj.com/Zye4Rw
    Mar 11 01:34 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Apple Now [View article]
    I wouldn't encourage you to since, as I'm sure you're aware, options are very risky. However, since few are expecting big performance out of the company and stock right now and thus the premiums on calls are relatively cheap, if one can afford to gamble and lose, now is not a bad time to do it.
    Mar 11 01:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Apple Now [View article]
    I try to stick to long-dated calls and it's important to switch out of them as you get within 6 months. If only I had followed that advice last fall... I have no strong opinions on AAPL in the very short-term, but I think the market will begin to look toward a dividend hike (and probably expect too much) as well as updated products and that should soon help the stock price recover. What will really help is when they announce a phone for prepaid markets.

    I don't know about Chinese wealth, but clearly large hedge funds and institutions have pared back AAPL as a whole and jumped into GOOG. I'm inclined to bet against Google at levels above $850, but I need to do more research on the company first.

    Thanks for the comment.
    Mar 11 01:06 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Apple Now [View article]
    Lol, thanks for the comment, Fred. Good points, though I think the analysts are probably a lagging indicator on earnings... And don't forget about this guy :) http://bit.ly/14LOrfp
    Mar 11 12:49 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Apple Now [View article]
    Based on the charts alone that sounds reasonable. Looking at product cycles, and a growing cash balance it is very unlikely. If Apple doesn't substantially raise its dividend or buyback at the upcoming board meeting it will have close to half of a $350 share price by the summer. At anything close to that price, activist investors like Einhorn will successfully force Apple to support the stock.
    Mar 11 12:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Apple Now [View article]
    To a small degree I agree with your larger point but I think iTunes shows that Apple can succeed in software and services. Even if you think this is just because of Apple's hardware, the company can at least leverage its hardware to succeed in services. I definitely hope Apple has big plans in financial services (likely attempting to become a platform rather than doing it all themselves), starting with mobile payments.
    Mar 10 11:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Apple Now [View article]
    That sounds about right to me. I also think $420 is likely to be good support dating back to the breakout in January 2012 now that the gap has filled. Thanks!
    Mar 10 11:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Apple Now [View article]
    That's definitely a strategy I'd get behind. I don't think there's much wrong with beginning to buy here and layering in more over time though. The value is there and the catalysts are coming soon.
    Mar 10 11:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Apple Now [View article]
    I appreciate your perspective and I must admit that in the short-run you are shaking my confidence lol. I never intended to call a bottom at $437 or $420, but just to declare that I think the share price will go up from here over time. I look forward to when the stock rebounds enough and for long enough to get you to go long. During the past selloff I watched the chart but kept looking for a bottom rather than adhering to a terrible chart, so I would agree that the biggest weakness in my article is that the charts don't support my thesis in the very short-run.
    Tim
    Mar 10 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Apple Now [View article]
    Thanks! I agree with all of your points!
    Mar 10 10:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Apple Now [View article]
    Thanks! I appreciate it!
    Mar 10 10:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Apple Now [View article]
    Thanks so much! I agree with your points completely!
    Mar 10 10:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Buy Apple Now [View article]
    I agree and think all of the above will happen except for buying Disney. I don't think they need to given the close ties and the direction Disney is already going in. Thanks for the comment!
    Mar 10 10:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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