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Timothy Phillips

 
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  • Accounting Change Stands To Inflate Amazon's Reported Revenues [View article]
    That could be. It is not clear to me in the call that they made any changes in Q2 in regards to ebook accounting (wholesale vs. agency) .. here is the exchange .. "working on it" could be taken as not implemented yet, or that they are part way through - not clear (as with every other answer).

    Ken Sena - Evercore Partners
    Hi, thank you. Just going back to your comments on unit acceleration; has the shift from agency to wholesale in terms of the DOJ E-Book Settlement, has that completed or you’re still working your way through many of the U.S. publishers? Thank you.

    Thomas J. Szkutak - SVP, CFO
    We’re working through it. I wouldn’t say that that’s complete, but we’re working through it.
    Jul 26 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data For Amazon In June Is Out, Conclusion Remains The Same [View article]
    Paulo - did you notice that 3P unit volume matched channel advisor perfectly in Q2 (29.0% to 29.0%)? In the past AMZN 3P unit growth was always a little higher than CA.

    Another interesting note, is that Q2 was the 1st time since AMZN gave us 3P unit numbers that 1P was the same or larger than 3P in terms of unit growth.

    3P ASP's are increasing significantly (7.2% in Q2, 4.6% in Q1)reflecting the higher charges and commissions. Looks like it is having an impact on volume.
    Jul 26 05:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accounting Change Stands To Inflate Amazon's Reported Revenues [View article]
    I made some adjustments this morning. While spending is outpacing the trend my model developed (it is accelerating even more significantly now in shipping, T&C and fulfillment), 1P product margins (less shipping) are increasing pretty good. Probably the best upside I can say about AMZN right now. Once I adjusted the product margins, to reflect the new trend, I get a 65c full year 2013 EPS.
    Jul 26 05:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1 More Reason To Hate Amazon's Valuation [View article]
    KrK - A/R has everything tied into it (1P/3P/AWS, etc..). I like to follow unearned revenue (less than 12 month pre-paids: Prime, gift cards, AWS) and LT liabilities (more than 12-month pre-paid: AWS & Gift cards). The growth in these numbers has slowed, and may be a better indicator that AWS is going to slow over the next 12 months.

    I do agree with Paulo that the fact the three of us who know the financials of this stock so well have to guess at the specifics is troubling and should not be rewarded.
    Jul 26 04:54 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 1 More Reason To Hate Amazon's Valuation [View article]
    The Bank of AMZN continues - AMZN generated an additional $642M in cash by pushing out their metrics again, and inventory mgt got a little worse (numbers are Q/Q).

    - dropped $434M in net cash
    - inventory days (TTM) increased 0.7 days to 45.6 days
    - Days Payable increased 1.0 day to 72.8 days!
    - accrued expenses increased 1.3 days to 28.7 days
    - long-term liabilities increased 0.1 day to 14.5 days

    When will the chickens come home to roost?
    Jul 25 05:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accounting Change Stands To Inflate Amazon's Reported Revenues [View article]
    Paulo - it doesn't seem like there was any accounting change as the GM% works out on the rev growth by PL.
    Jul 25 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Accounting Change Stands To Inflate Amazon's Reported Revenues [View article]
    Hi Ted - my updated model calls for 1c in EPS for 2013 !!!
    Jul 25 05:47 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Earnings: Good Not Enough For Premium Stock [View article]
    After rising $55 over the past three weeks in anticipation of a blow out report - the stock is actually up now today on a disappointing report. Sub momentum is slowing even with the massive increase in content spending, and their clarification on margin guidance actually leads to margin reduction in Q4 with continued higher amort due to catch up on deperciation to spending (that will continue to haunt them for serveral Q going forward).

    Hard to understand all of the excitement over a stock in tough financial shape, with massive contionued dilution, massive insider selling, and huge/growing competition. The only cash flow generator (DVD) is shrinking at lightning speed. CY14 FWD P/E sits at 85 on a company growing the top line at 20%.
    Jul 23 09:50 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Amazon.com The New Wal-Mart? [View article]
    Wow - my prediction is already happening. Lazard this morning up'd their price target from $310 to $340 "citing increased confidence that the company’s Web services segment will drive margin expansion. The firm keeps a Buy rating on the stock."

    Amazing - here we go .. their original $310 target was based on AWS growing at ridiculous levels and expanding margin. Remember, AWS is <2% of the company "driving" margins. $30 price increase implies a $14B market cap expansion due to increased margins on <2% (or ~ $2B in revs) of the company.
    Jul 16 07:36 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Amazon.com The New Wal-Mart? [View article]
    NW - Don't kid yourself, it is the same business and the same market. Difference is that Amazon only uses the Internet as its channel. Walmart uses both stores and the internet as channels (and already has its FC's in place local to you - they're called stores).
    Jul 15 03:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Amazon.com The New Wal-Mart? [View article]
    Walmart's shelf is just as important (if not more) as the AMZN infrastructure. Companies will go to the ends of the earth to be selected a supplier to WMT because it opens them up to the largest retailer (and number of potential customers) in the world.
    Jul 15 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Amazon.com The New Wal-Mart? [View article]
    Your 1st point is irrelevant as 3P is just like Walmart brining in another supplier to stock their shelves. 3P or 1P it all looks the same on the website .. but the difference is that the user experience can be different (returns, quality, shipping, etc..), whereas Walmart controls all of their inventory.
    Jul 15 01:28 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data For Amazon In June Is Out, Conclusion Remains The Same [View article]
    Those comments should make you shudder if you are long.

    1997 - they generate no cash from operations, only from employee stock and pushing out payables.

    2003 - "the long term"? It is ten years later and still no profits, cash flow or book value

    2005 - same comments, 8 years later, nothing to show for it but losses ...

    but wait - it is all just around the corner!

    Even more out of line is your initial comment - they have spent a ton of capex and added massive amounts of B&M for logistics, distribution and hugely growing inventory.
    Jul 15 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1 More Reason To Hate Amazon's Valuation [View article]
    June retail sales this morning were not good.

    DOWN 0.1% ex Autos & Gas

    Internet retail up only 2.1% in June.

    Let's see if that stops the train that is Amazon. That is bad 3P comps for them and bad 1P data now for Q2.
    Jul 15 08:38 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Amazon.com The New Wal-Mart? [View article]
    Peter Lynch calls what Amazon does "diworsification"
    Jul 15 06:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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