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Timothy Phillips

 
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  • 1 More Reason To Hate Amazon's Valuation [View article]
    That's right Herb, the issue here is that the bubble is limited to only certain "risk-on" assets like AMZN - in fact so few assets, that the money is piling in quickly to just a few (AMZN, TSLA, LNKD, NFLX, etc..) that really creating a massive distortion while many good companies are left behind.

    When the FED, media, economists, etc. look at the market they see a forward P/E of 14.5 on the S&P500 which is a historically below average number. That provides cover for everything is happening. Now, the earnings forecasts for 2013 are really back-end loaded (double digit growth expectation), so while Q2 may not provide a knockout blow itself, it could lead to significant reductions in forward earnings if comments and forecasts don;t meet very high expectations. This could increase the market P/E to a point where those mentioned above become uncomfortable.
    Jul 14 08:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data For Amazon In June Is Out, Conclusion Remains The Same [View article]
    RonK2 - thanks for bringing the coin flip story up. That about sums up the AMZN long position on this board ...
    Jul 13 08:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data For Amazon In June Is Out, Conclusion Remains The Same [View article]
    There are two metrics they asked us to value them on: Annual Free Cash flow growth and ROIC (based on FCF, not earnings by their def. Here are the results for those two metrics over the last 6 Q's:

    FCF growth (2009/10/11/12): $2.9B, $2.5B, $2.1B, $0.4B
    ROIC (last 6Q's): 21.2%, 11.5%, 10.9%, 10.4%, 3.6%, 1.5%

    How does that not scare investors? The two metrics they manage the business to, are a complete disaster.
    Jul 12 02:13 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1 More Reason To Hate Amazon's Valuation [View article]
    the numbers do work out, but only very big funds can do it - that is why Cap World and Fido are biggest shareholders as they have the ability to make the market.
    Jul 12 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1 More Reason To Hate Amazon's Valuation [View article]
    If you sell puts, you collect a premium as long as the stock closes above the strike. Given enough capital in a "low volume to float" stock, a price can be made to finish up above that strike on a weekly basis. You would them unload your underlying position at some point (or roll it to next week). The goal is to make more on the premium than you may lose in the underlying each week. In Amazon's case, it even appears you can make money on the underlying + premium almost every week as demand for shares remains (momo players).
    Jul 12 07:04 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1 More Reason To Hate Amazon's Valuation [View article]
    Once it closed above the 5th wave completion at $292 it was going to move to the next nice round number quickly ... and quicky it did: 1 day! It will be interesting to see the battle at $300 ... a lot of shares moved today, 4M .. which tells me that there will be some profit taking here prior to earnings potentially .. let's see how much support she gets.
    Jul 11 06:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1 More Reason To Hate Amazon's Valuation [View article]
    The manipulation I describe in comments above are legal. It simply requires enough money to move the stock and knowledge of the short/put positions each week. If you make more money in put premium than you spend net in the long trade, you win.
    Jul 11 06:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1 More Reason To Hate Amazon's Valuation [View article]
    NW - it does capital to risk assests, of which Amazon is a top Bill. So, it will not impact all stocks equally.
    Jul 11 06:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Q2 2013 Earnings Preview [View article]
    Salerno - Target average is at $315, only 5% higher!!! ... they will all start raising targets if it holds through earnings. Finances be damned!
    Jul 11 03:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data For Amazon In June Is Out, Conclusion Remains The Same [View article]
    Put volume is up significantly though .. that is what I think is driving the price higher. Allows for manipulation when coupled with low underlying volume.
    Jul 11 02:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data For Amazon In June Is Out, Conclusion Remains The Same [View article]
    Gas costs reflect oil prices on a 4-6 week lag, so Q3 is already almost baked in with WTI over $100/barrel.
    Jul 11 02:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 1 More Reason To Hate Amazon's Valuation [View article]
    KRK,

    Here is what makes up the growth (based on regression models of industry and market data):

    1P: 17.5% (down from 18.0% last Q)
    3P: 34.0% (down from 39.4% last Q)
    AWS: 56.0% (down from 59.3% last Q)
    Jul 11 02:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com Q2 2013 Earnings Preview [View article]
    Amazon was also initiated by Husquahanna as a "perform" with a price target of $370. I am sure that has helped fuel the 2x market performance today as well.
    Jul 11 12:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1 More Reason To Hate Amazon's Valuation [View article]
    FWIW, my AMZN model now stands at the following for Q2 based on channel advisor, US retail sales, global retail growth, Currency F/X, Q2 final gas prices, etc... (this does not include the potential accounting change):

    Revenue: $15.539B (+21.1% Y/Y)
    Shipping Expense: $1.226B
    GM%: 28.1%
    Fulfillment: 11.7%
    MKT: 4.4%
    T&C: 9.4%
    G&A: 1.7%

    Operating Profit: $103M (0.7%)
    Net Income: $20M (0.1%)
    EPS: $0.04
    Free Cash Flow: $32M (op CF: $732M, CapEx $700M)

    With Oil heading up gas prices will be high in Q3 - and hence the impact on margin. Here is my Q3 FCT:

    Revenue: $16.6B (+ 20.0% Y/Y)
    GM%: 27.7%
    Op Inc: $57M (0.3%)
    EPS: $0.06
    FCF: $401M
    Jul 11 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data For Amazon In June Is Out, Conclusion Remains The Same [View article]
    Hi Paulo - thanks for update. My model now stands at the following for Q2 based on channel advisor, US retail sales, global retail growth, Currency F/X, Q2 final gas prices, etc... (this does not include the potential accounting change):

    Revenue: $15.539B (+21.1% Y/Y)
    Shipping Expense: $1.226B
    GM%: 28.1%
    Fulfillment: 11.7%
    MKT: 4.4%
    T&C: 9.4%
    G&A: 1.7%

    Operating Profit: $103M (0.7%)
    Net Income: $20M (0.1%)
    EPS: $0.04
    Free Cash Flow: $32M (op CF: $732M, CapEx $700M)

    With Oil heading up gas prices will be high in Q3 - and hence the impact on margin. Here is my Q3 FCT:

    Revenue: $16.6B (+ 20.0% Y/Y)
    GM%: 27.7%
    Op Inc: $57M (0.3%)
    EPS: $0.06
    FCF: $401M
    Jul 11 12:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
431 Comments
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