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Timothy Phillips

 
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  • Amazon Fresh: One Guaranteed Winner, But Many Potential Losers [View article]
    You're definition of success is ridiculous: "If Amazon can break even with Amazon Fresh, the company will succeed. No ifs, ands, or buts about it."

    You're point is that if they can break even on Fresh (which is a huge assumption on your part .. prove it), they enable more bundling through Prime and increase retail sales. So, let me get this straight - you want to them breakeven on Fresh so they can lose more than already do on retail? Oh, I get it, make up the loses on volume ...

    At some point, AMZN needs to focus on what it already has and turn it profitable - how about they prove that before they continue to distract themselves with new money losers. Any business that needs another unrelated business to turn itself profitable, is not a business at all.
    Jun 13, 2013. 02:39 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data Springs Large Negative Surprise For Amazon.com [View article]
    Yes, Tippydog's commnets were spot on.

    AOL comparison is a bit of stretch because there main issue was not comfort with the internet, but the deployment of the wrong technology and then they could adjust fast enough (phone modem dial-up access vs. what the cable providers could do through coax).
    Jun 13, 2013. 11:19 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data Springs Large Negative Surprise For Amazon.com [View article]
    $265 is about the 50 day SMA, that is why you see the resistance there. I think it will find that point again soon, and then we will see if that is enough for someone to bail and crash through it. AMZN typically has a hard time breaking through this point - only 3 times out of 11 attempts in the past year (27% breach success)
    Jun 13, 2013. 11:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data Springs Large Negative Surprise For Amazon.com [View article]
    That is true, but the business has changed dramtically since then, and my articles point to how those margins are now impossible based on the current structure of the business (they can't dial back the costs w/o destroying all growth).

    Eventually, analysts/investors are going to realize that "next year" is never coming, and Amazon is in a new norm.
    Jun 11, 2013. 06:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ChannelAdvisor Data Springs Large Negative Surprise For Amazon.com [View article]
    Illuminati - AMZN already earns less and generates less cash than Facebook.

    FB is on track to earn over $1.2B this year (real earnings including stock cost) vs. about $400M for AMZN (if they are lucky - they never hit forecasts).

    Next year, Analysts have FB earnings higher than AMZN again (and 2014 is supposed to be the harvest year for AMZN).. More $2B for FB, and about $1.5B for AMZN.
    Jun 11, 2013. 03:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon's Expansion Knows No Bounds [View article]
    Yes, that is one high-end program. There is no one who shops at Walmart, Costco, BJ's, or Sam's that would front that type of cash. It could work in some sections of LA and SF, but it will be niche ....
    Jun 11, 2013. 07:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon's Expansion Knows No Bounds [View article]
    BTW, the above was satire ....
    Jun 11, 2013. 07:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon's Expansion Knows No Bounds [View article]
    AMZN also just announced Amazon Lending, a new business offered to its Prime members that challenges the status quo of the entire banking industry. Amazon will allow prime members to borrow an equal amount of what they spend in Prime each year at negative 5% interest. Jeff Bezos states, "we are excited to offer this important new service to our prime customer base, which will only strengthen the prime program, expand its customer reach, and allow our customer to spend even more each year with Prime."

    Morgan Stanley has partnered with Amazon on this program lending an additional $5B at 1% interest to fund the program and help Amazon scale in advance of the lending orders. This type of endorsement from Morgan Stanley highlights the growth potential of this new program.

    RJ Hottovy, analyst at Morningstar, raised his price target to $400, as he thinks this program could add $30-$40B of new revenue next year for Amazon, driving economies of scale to actual increase margins for the company. When asked how essentially sending customers $1 for every 95 cents purchased could increase profits, Mr Hottovy replied, "the size of this revenue increase will make each fulfillment center more efficient, and not require any new G&A, thus generating significant incremental profit on each sale".
    Jun 10, 2013. 12:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon's Expansion Knows No Bounds [View article]
    FedEx announced this morning that they are going to increase shipping rates by 4.7% starting July 1st. This will continue the trend of shipping cost outpacing revenue growth despite the large increase in fulfillment centers.
    Jun 10, 2013. 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Fundamentally A Value Buy Even With 50% Drop In Earnings [View article]
    ValueTech - they are doing to very well in China (and will gain significant share in the coming year based on supplier builds and distributor forecasts) - I wrote an article on the new phones coming out for the China market (low cost and larger screen), and the deal with China Mobile back in mid-April.

    You can see the numbers here:http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jun 7, 2013. 05:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon's Expansion Knows No Bounds [View article]
    my point was that 83% of the business is direct retail today. 12% is 3P retail, and 5% is AWS + digital.

    It is a retail company in that regard.

    Amazon requires sum of the parts analysis because of the diversity and fast growth of non-retail. If you value 83% as a retail, 12% like eBay, and 5% like a cloud company .. you get about a $150 valuation on comparables.
    Jun 7, 2013. 04:57 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Is Fundamentally A Value Buy Even With 50% Drop In Earnings [View article]
    Value Tech - you're wrong again .. Apple is growing share in China and at very high incremental margin. Get your facts straight and read the 10Q's.
    Jun 7, 2013. 02:28 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon's Expansion Knows No Bounds [View article]
    AMZN has become a conglomerate, but at the heart of it, it is a retailer with very, very low margins and should be valued as such.

    Every Q that passes proves that Amazon will never earn what is expected to support this ridiculous valuation.
    Jun 7, 2013. 02:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon's Expansion Knows No Bounds [View article]
    MIchael - it has to correct. If you have the money/time to wait, water always finds it level.

    After all the market knows about Amazon now, today has now reached ludicrous levels (AMZN added more market cap today ($5.6B at the high today) than all cumulative cash flow the company has generated from 2009 until now (5 years worth = $4.8B).

    They have increased in value (at the peak today) by 50% of the entire market value of NFLX.

    At some point the old adage is true: Hogs get fed, pigs get slaughtered ... maybe the pumpers got a little too fat today.
    Jun 7, 2013. 11:50 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Amazon's Expansion Knows No Bounds [View article]
    Paulo - that should have been the read - retail is in decline for them, and this is a desperate cry for growth. Each new business they enter will have lower and lower profit potential, as the low hanging fruit is gone.
    Jun 7, 2013. 11:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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