• Timothy Phillips
    $AMZN my model expects $15.7B revs, 25.7% GM, $42M OpInc, $0.00 EPS (with no equity investment), -$3.3B FCF No idea what stock will do.
    4/25/13
    Reply (22)
    • onerulvi: My prediction is following: Higher revenue, lower profits, but promising results in video streaming and cloud services.
      4/25/13
    • onerulvi: I think if top management can sell these 2 well, many people who missed the $NFLX boat will jump into $AMZN and we will see a spike.
      4/25/13
    • onerulvi: Same goes for cloud, $GOOG vs $AMZN.These are 2 fields that has great potential for $AMZN and others. I might be wrong though, we shall see!
      4/25/13
    • Timothy Phillips: Last Q $AMZN dropped $15 on earnings day, then went up $24 in AH. Maybe today will be the opposite effect .. up $7 during the day ... AH???
      4/25/13
    • Timothy Phillips: Similar 2Q's ago, down $8 on earnings day, then up $16 in AH on disappointing numbers (also 3Q's ago) ... pattern seems to reverse in AH.
      4/25/13
    • Paulo Santos: If I used the 25.7% GM I'd get very negative EPS. At 26% GM I get -$0.03 EPS. My own prediction ...
      4/25/13
    • Paulo Santos: Is that AMZN meets EPS, misses revenues, guides down revenues. But it's very easy for AMZN to come in well ahead or below in EPS because...
      4/25/13
    • Paulo Santos: $0.10 in EPS is just $46 million on $16 billion revenue ...
      4/25/13
    • Paulo Santos: I also expect GM 26%-26.5%
      4/25/13
    • Timothy Phillips: My T&C is lower than yours .. I split T&C in AWS and other, so only a piece of mine grows really fast. Equit invest = 2c per $10M.
      4/25/13
    • Paulo Santos: What's really amazing is that consensus was at $0.34 just 90 days ago ... this happens over and over with AMZN, consensus down 80%, 70%, 90%
      4/25/13
    • Timothy Phillips: 2011 Q1 consensus for $AMZN was $1.25 in 2013 Q1 and $5.45 for 2013. Even more amazing - the fwd PE is higher now than they expected then!
      4/25/13
    • Timothy Phillips: $AMZN stock price was $170 in 2011 Q1 when they expected $5.45 for 2013. Now that they expect $1.47, price is $275. Go figure.
      4/25/13
    • Paulo Santos: Something extraordinary happened here.
      4/25/13
    • Timothy Phillips: My theory is that AMAZ uses a lot of investment banking (bond, acquisition) and it forces the sell side and trading desks to push the stock
      4/25/13
    • Timothy Phillips: Hedge and momo funds realize this game and piggyback the ride creating postivie feedback on the stock .. I have an article almost done.
      4/25/13
    • Timothy Phillips: They are piling into the stock right now .. properly conditioned I supposed. Maybe that is a sign - finally overbullish?
      4/25/13
    • Paulo Santos: In what regards options, calls are trading a lot more than puts and open interest in the calls is higher, so not only have shorts quit ...
      4/25/13
    • Paulo Santos: ... but people have quit buying puts as well.
      4/25/13
    • Timothy Phillips: yep - full capitulation by the bears .. feels like a "if you can't beat 'em, join 'em" moment.
      4/25/13
    • Timothy Phillips: At $275, $AMZN now up 10% for the year already with revised outlook down across the board - and a scary ecomomy and consumer.
      4/25/13
    • Timothy Phillips: $AMZN now is worth 53% of Apple
      4/25/13