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Timothy Siegel

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  • Rural Banks to Benefit From Agricultural Boom [View article]
    JimWe,
    I meant to create a colorful picture, and I'm sorry if I ended up making you feel insulted. I did not mean to imply that rural bankers dress in overalls, but that the investor contemplating investing in a financial institution should put himself in a rural state of mind.

    Tim
    Jul 9 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AK Steel: 10 Structural Changes That Should Trump the Business Cycle [View article]
    Fxtrader, you and I think in a similar way. I remember watching CNBC, last year, and hearing an analyst say that the recession would likely drive petroleum prices down. I was aghast, because it seemed that to this fellow the U.S. was the world. "We are the world," some think. And right after WWII, there was some truth to that. The US represented a huge share of the world economy. But it sure is not true any more.
    Jul 8 05:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AK Steel: 10 Structural Changes That Should Trump the Business Cycle [View article]
    Thank you, FLLLL. I'm glad I know that history now. As Mark Twain said, "It's not what you don't know that will get you into trouble, it's what you know for sure that just ain't so." I don't discuss these things with many people who are knowledgeable, so after I read the "AK" as Arkansas (and it's actually the postal abbreviation for Alaska), I just went blithely on, uncorrected. Seemed strange that they always abbreviated it and had no facilities in Arkansas, but after once forming the belief, it was so easy to continue. Now I'm glad I know the truth.
    Jul 8 05:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AK Steel: 10 Structural Changes That Should Trump the Business Cycle [View article]
    Fllll, point well taken. I just think of them as Arkansas Steel because that was the name when I first started buying in.

    Steel Market Update, Still, hasn't the market reaction been a little overdone? A 25% drop on one piece of bad news, that might not even be that bad??? The point is that so many shareholders are ready to sell at the first sign that there will be a downturn.
    Jul 6 09:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rural Banks to Benefit From Agricultural Boom [View article]
    This increase in agricultural commodities prices is not an annual harvest cycle phenomenon. Everyone should know that, whether in NYC, or the heart of Kansas.
    Jul 1 06:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rural Banks to Benefit From Agricultural Boom [View article]
    DaveinHackensack,

    Thank you for your comment. Sounds like on a higher conceptual level I'm in good company (Jim Rogers). One great thing about banks is that there are a lot more relatively local, publicly-listed banking companies that there are retailers, or others dependent on local economic strength. But, interestingly enough, in the retail sector there is another agricultural boom play, and that is Wal-Mart, the biggest of the big. There is may be no publicly traded retailer more closely associated with the rural economy than Wal-Mart. With the boost from the farm belt and international operations, Wal-Mart may be worth considering (don't own any myself, or in my mFolio). I would have a hard time investing in any U.S. based retailer, however, because they will be squeezed by rising import prices.
    Jul 1 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rural Banks to Benefit From Agricultural Boom [View article]
    TKTK53 - OK, where do I contradict myself?? I don't see any contradiction whatsoever. I do point out both weaknesses and strengths of the position of rural banks, and OZRK in particular. But there is no contradiction, just a recognition of both the negative and the positive.
    Jul 1 05:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem With Designer ETFs [View article]
    Dividend Growth Investor

    I greatly appreciate that you did not call my posting "flapdoodle." But, if I understand it correctly, I disagree with your statement that "companies that could... ." At any moment we only know what companies have done in the past, and so a company that in the past has consistently increased its dividend, might not in the future. If enough investors start to invest based on consistent dividend increases, those companies that are forced to refrain from a past pattern of dividend increases could really get clobbered when all the dividend increase investors sell en masse when a good dividend pattern is discontinued. Also, high yield stocks tend to be vulnerable to rising interest rates. My thought is that an investor is always better off looking at everything. The best way is to observe some relationship that others have missed. I just don't see how you can hope to beat the market by being part of some huge crowd of dividend growth investors, as it seems to me that this investment philosophy has really grown in popularity over the last 10 years, and might be cresting.
    Jun 30 02:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem With Designer ETFs [View article]
    Panskeptic

    "Flapdoodle"!!!!!!!???...

    I just have one basic answer, and that is: We are talkin' money here. Yes, market cap is flawed, it is horribly flawed. It has all the flaws you list. But we are talkin' money and so there will be a constant, continuing financial incentive for all players to break away from dogma and to see the falsehoods and respond. And, Timbo's rule 54.28.3, states that "People respond to financial incentives."

    Market cap is the worst, except for the rest.
    Jun 30 02:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Problem With Designer ETFs [View article]
    Smart ETF

    Most of what you say, I agree with. But remember: I say that Market Cap is the worst system, except for all the rest (credit: Churchill). With respect to Simons, Tudor and Robertson, we really don't know how they beat the market, and to what extent they rely on weighting models, because they are extremely secretive. I accept that you construct models that beat the market for decades, but my guess is the market performance that you beat is pre-model construction. I can certainly accept that with a rearward view, you can construct models that beat the market for many decades of the past. But you are not the only one who is observing the past. Others will also respond, and this will tend to destroy those same relationships in the future. Also, my suggestion for weighting the market caps is highly qualified with, "let us theorize that there actually is some attribute ... ." I only suggest that as a superior alternative to weighting by other alternative weighting schemes that have been developed.

    Also, with respect to my democracy statement, I state, "except for resulting from a process in which each dollar, rather than each eligible person, gets a vote." So of course it is one in which the big money players, or "fat cats," are weighted much more than the average investor.

    My basic point is that every observation that you make about the market is made by others, too. So if you construct an index that takes these observations into account, your index must contend with other indexes and market actions of others who have made the same observations.

    I would like to make one qualification, however. Rather than saying "the best minds" I should have said "the best minds that the big money players have identified." There could be way better minds out there, that have just not been identified by the big money players.

    Also, if you constructed an index, decades ago, or even a single decade ago, that has consistently beaten the market since then, I would be very, very interested in seeing it and seeing how you did that.
    Jun 30 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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