Contributor since: 2013
Company: TipRanks
Thanks William - Allowing users to decide if they want to see all types of experts together or separated might be a bad User Experience and cause confusion. our main focus is to simplify the platform.
From both. Institutional investors don't like the fact that Financial Bloggers are considered "Experts" but basically anyone who visited TipRanks in the first year the website was up.
We will try to add the indicator we omitted which shows each experts overall rating -
Thanks again for bringing this to our attention.
Very interesting thoughts. Thank you for bringing this to our attention.
About half a year ago we changed our stock pages so that Analysts and Financial Bloggers would be listed separately. We received many (thousands) of requests to divide the two lists. While it was (and still is) very clear that Bloggers outperform the average analysts, it seemed to bother many users. However, up until last week we showed the overall ranking of any blogger/analyst alongside his ranking among his peers. We will look into this recent change and reevaluate it.
Thank you!
Thanks tuliptown.
We always had internal discussions to use the NLP (Natural Language Processing) algorithms and apply them on Sports to see who is good in predicting results.
Ian - i think you might be exaggerating. Our algorithms have a 97% accuracy when analyzing Sell Side information, and 94.4% when analyzing financial blogs (and 100% on insiders as it is very structured forms)
Due to the nature of Blogging language which is less structured, many times it is sarcastic and full with grammar issues. We use Machine Learning algorithms to classify articles. The technology we use seems to be good enough for Security agencies and if you do not find the statistics satisfying then it is your right not to use us.
You are of course very welcomed to contact us with mistakes you believe we made. every correction from users improves our learning machine accuracy (that's how it works). i doubt if you will here from anyone on SA that he contacted us and did not get a very quick and relevant response.
That is correct. when we started TipRanks we approached Thomson assuming they will provide us with a database and we will need only to design something for individual investor. lucky for us they didnt allow us to, we developed our technology and applied it on both analyst reports and financial bloggers. also for an average investor spending $2000 for starmine can be a big deal.
I couldn't agree more. however our database starts at 2009 (not for that reason).there are analysts that are always bearish and still generate great returns on their picks (e.g. Gordon Johnson) so i assume that looking at them during 2008 would have had a great impact on their performance.
Harm - great input. we do however allow users to adjust settings so you can see how analysts/bloggers/insi... performed when benchmarked to the markets or to the sector of the covered stock. meaning that every Buy/Sell rating was measured against the SPY or relevant index. there are still many that have been outperforming for 6 years in a row.
Hi Buyahndhold - that is a good point that requires some clarification. when we say 86.5% we exclude "Hold" ratings, as we are agnostic to those ratings in terms of measuring their performance. if you work on a Buy-Hold-Sell scale the number of Buy ratings fall to around 50%
Not at all. they did the same with their map systems (failed). Lucky for Google that Apple considers Microsoft to be their Nemesis.
Would be interesting to see if Apple would be smart enough to get in that space by acquiring some promising startup in that field (maybe DuckDuckGo?)
the entire Search space is fascinating, now that Facebook got rid of Bing.
Thanks for updating us. we'll look into this.
Hi Kyle,
Our algorithms have a 94% accuracy, and we test our data on a daily basis.
If you feel that we have not measured your performance correctly just shoot us an email and we will give this a mannual look.
note that there are many ways to determine the measurments, including using different benchmarks, different time frames and more...
Have a happy new years.
Taking a rest after a very nice marathon.
The price target given by the analysts is intended for the next 12 months.
However, since this article was written ORCL shares have increased by 14% so the analysts are likely to change or update their estimates in the following weeks.
BrutalHonesty - he sold more shares than needed to pay tax - about $6 million USD more.
BrutalHonesty - See our comment below. this was validated with 2 prominent finance Professors.
You are wrong. Since C level receive qualified stock options which are taxes can capital gains only when stocks are sold.
the state level tax is indeed a factor. So the worst case scenario (non-qualified stock options) the marginal tax rate is 47%.
the 39.2% is the 40% in ourconservative calculation. He also included state tax which may bring the total tax bill to as high as 47% (1-0.396)*(1-0.124).
Regardless to tax issue we're discussing, we hope you understand that when an insider exercises options he pays the option price which is (in this case) 7.75$ . he sold them for $42 (not $41 as you claimed). However you look at it, the CEO took a very nice amount of cash home and reduced his exposure to HLF. You can agree or disagree but this is the bottom line. good luck on whatever position you have.
Thanks. It is our pleasure. we are also excited becuase we tracked this down using a product we are working on that is still in very early stage. so it was encouraging to see it worked well.
He made 19.2 million USD from the manipulation yesterday. we are now investigating this.
Spot on! cant wait to see your profile update tomorrow morning: http://bit.ly/1w9SmBH
Analyst Doug Amnouth of JP Morgan is ranked 5 stars at TipRanks with a success rate of 69% on stocks he rated "Buy" or "Sell". in the last year he was neutral on Twitter which makes it hard to determine his knowledge on his prediction capabilities on this specific stock.
Jason Hi,
We would be happy to learn where you found our service incorrect. we use Machine learning algorithms to determine if an article was an explicit buy or sell. This article was classified as a Sell Apple (as you can see in the link DPK posted). we test our data once a week by taking someone go over 500 recommendation mannualy and test our accuracy. it is currently 95.1% meaning that that out of 1000 recommendations we publish from bloggers 951 would be classified correctly. we are always opened for feedbacks and we DO answer any email we get with a very fast response time. we also look forward to hear from you.
You make some very interesting points in your article. Thanks for sharing!
Kudos for democratizing wall street!
Since last you recommended to sell Facebook (On November 1st), the stock outperformed the SP500 by 13%.
This is what the SEC says: "Many analysts work in a world with built-in conflicts of interest”:
That's what got us started with TipRanks :)
J.P. Morgan analyst Michael Weinstein downgraded the stock today. but before you run away selling it, note that he has a 29% accuracy on his ratings and a -4.4% avg return below the SP500 on each Buy/Sell rating he gave. know who to trust.
there were many analysts estimations that made the stock volatile in the last month... however there are only 3-4 analysts that are usually right on the money while the rest seem to constantly miss the target..
The analyst with the hisghest success ratio and most accurate EPS is Pierre Ferragu (from Bernstein) with 70% of his Buy ratings outperforming the markets since 2009. 3 weeks ago he recommended to Buy the stock. whoever listened to him did good. its important to distinguish between the unbiased accurate analysts and those who haven't got a clue.
The analyst from J.P Morgan (his name is Richard Shane), has an average return of +3.7% above the SP500 based on a his last recommendations. he seems to be trustworthy but definitely not a Top Ranked analyst. He also recommended Selling American Express 2 weeks ago and whoever took that advice lost about 6%.
It really depends who is the analyst covering Soda at Barclays and how accurate is he. some are good most are mediocre.
Unlike most sell side analysts. some of the analysts that upgraded AMZN this morning (and last week) are pretty accurate one:
you got Heath Terry from Goldman Sachs that from what we detected outperformed the market in14 out of his last 28 ratings.
you got Heather Bellini (Also from GS) that was correct in 9 out of her last 12 ratings (75%).
and today you have another analyst for whom we have less significant data: Carlos Kirjner who has 6 out of 9 ratings.
These are pretty good statistics and i would even say rare when it comes to analysts.
Well written.
a few more points for better and worth:
1) If you ask an average American how easy is the procedure of replacing the carbon plug he will have much to say.
this still needs some serious improvements and for now many americans bought the soda machine but isnt re filling it due to SodaStream's lack of distribution - needless to say that the US is the most important market.
2) Israeli company regulations - in a few other countries there are strict "purchasing Israeli goods" policies that can affect their sales.. its not something you see in mega Israeli companies such as TEVA or Checkpoint, but the threat exists.
3) Sodastream is a small volatile company competing with Giants (KO,DPS,etc..)
4)I am not sure about this one but at some point i can assume their patent will expire
Some Good points:
1) great management.
2) TipRanks top Analysts all give SODA a "Strong Buy" or equivalent.
3) they do consistently beat analysts expectations and there is a very good momentum.
4) They are still small enough to react to Market Trends and for an under billion dollar Mkt Cap they have a very strong brand.