TMT Analyst

Long/short equity, special situations, value
TMT Analyst
Long/short equity, special situations, value
Contributor since: 2008
Company: TMT Analyst
There are such things as typos!! But thanks for the correction.
It was part of the deal to save them including the loans, which has since been paid back. What % of your wealth would you give up in order to save your life?
The "equity" was essentially worth zero. They were about to go under.
I think you are wrong here. Liberty will have access to those NOLs if they consolidate SIRI at the 80% level
They bought $2.5BN shares for $12.5K. Remember SIRI was on the cusp of bankruptcy at the time. Liberty gave them a lifeline. One of the best investments I have seen by one company to another in the past 20yrs.
In this case the primary purpose is for large institutional ownership. It does make the stock easier to short though.
"REVERSE SPLIT"
YES! "Reverse SPLIT" Somehow the word was excluded when SA edited. Thanks for all the corrections.
look at Groupon's 1Q11 revenue growth rate. This is supportive of TZOO's ability to drive growth in Local Deals
See photo on tmtanalyst.com
Consensus net adds are 335K, which was in my write-up. Not sure what happened with the editing. 1.4 is the company guidance for the year.
Digger - I will wait until I see the impact, if any, from Japan.
Hey Gabe/thirty4, Kenn Registe here, tmtanalyst.com, and I manage my own money along with a few others, hence the word we. You are reading this incorrectly. Buy the stock into earnings to capture the upside, then sell right before the report. Just a trading call that has worked consistently. Reading really is fundamental. SA responses baffle me sometimes.
Anita - shares could move up towards $2 by end of week I think. I actually wrote this article last week but SA published it this week so there was upside that we captured. I did not stress the Japan issue as much but keep an eye out for that. The shortage could be a real concern for sub growth in the next few quarters, particularly at Toyota.
it is non-core, there are zero synergies with the rest of the assets in the portfolio. If they sell it they cannot just sit on the cash. There is no hole in the portfolio that they need to plug with an acquisition. So a dividend or a massive share repurchase is the only use I see.
where are all the comments on this recent article that we wrote?
seekingalpha.com/artic...
odd that any article that does not praise the space the Sirius satellites orbit, so to speak, is lambasted by seeking alpha readers
just an fyi, I had a different title for this article
bro, the 13 million is self pay OEM subscribers, the ones most likely to receive price hikes. Add in the 4m retail self-pay gets you to the 17m you quoted.
It did not fail this time. Popped again.
markets do not make mistakes? so you believe markets are efficient. If so, then put your money in an index fund rather than in SIRI
one could apply your valuation logic to any equity that is
increasing EBITDA and paying down debt to argue that the shares are not overvalued even when trading at atrocious multiples. Herein lies the flaw in your logic.
So when is SIRI going to buy back its stock and how much will it spend on those share repurchases or better yet how far can it shrink its equity. Will it do a special one time dividend and when? Those are the questions worth asking. I would argue they won't be able to do so for several years.
what is the discounted value the free cash flows that SIRI will generate over the next 10 years on a per share basis. Is it significantly above the current share price
you may be beyond your league if it is a discussion on capital theory that you want to have
I look at traditional retail rather than amzn and the traditional retail guys that are close comps are showing strong same store sales growth
fair point
And by the way, Great Company. Love the service as I am a subscriber and so is another one of my colleagues. We just think it is a bit expensive based on the trading multiple and cannot see how the shares grow into their valuation.
I must say that I am extremely surprised by the lack of intellectual discourse in the above responses. These were nothing like in our previous article where the comments were constructive. Most CEOs and CFOs are always concerned with who owns their shares, for several reasons. Judging by these responses, Mel should be concerned and revisit reverse splitting the shares to get them into the hands of institutions.
Homer never thought you would be the one that needs to be corrected for not reading correctly. First, I said thru the sat replacement cycle this year, meaning after they launch the sat this year in 4Q, they would be done with sat launches. Second, if a sat goes done, they will turn to the spare, which is already up there, so they do not interrupt service. However, they will then need to launch another spare satellite. Get it
I did factor in all the share classes and adjusted the EV for investments and minority interest. I have been in this business for close to 2 decades so I've got you covered. Remember valuation concerns is the only point. Fundamentally this business is solid I believe.
This is a VALUATION call! In all your hate, anger, and insults, you have missed that point. SIRI is a great company but like I said valuations do matter. Someone says SIRI goes to $4. At that price the market cap is $30 billion. Do you think SIRI is a $30 billion company?
Homer I get the feeling that you work at Sirius :-). My information was blessed by investor relations at Sirius XM so you may want to check with them on the clarification points that you so defiantly raised. I agree with the points on access to the $8B in NOLs.
just some profit taking I think given the massive move up but I would be buying here. Fundamentally, the business has found its stride and I believe it is all upside from here.
I run my own model on Google and my detail analysis on what they can do, per their key drivers, i.e., clicks, CPCs, coverage, and growth at YouTube and DoubleClick show that current street estimates are likely conservative. That's provided that we do not head into a double-dip recession, which I think is a real possibility.
Will take a harder look but I agree they are not out of China and probably never will be.
That argues for the improvements that are needed in search