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Toby Shute  

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  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    Yep, that works. Hadn't noticed the "next arrow."
    Mar 9, 2015. 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Financial: This Commercial Auto Insurer Is Just Getting Revved Up [View article]
    Thanks for the comment and questions. On cost ratios, this information would not be so easy to come by as there is no other public pure play in light commercial auto, as far as I know. Most of the competitors are either small and privately owned or part of a larger P&C insurer. Here is a somewhat dated list of competitors from the Form 10 filed in 2012 (they don't list competitors by name in the 10-K):

    In the specialty insurance market ACIC and ASI compete against, among others, American Transit Insurance Company (New York only), Canal Insurance Company, CNA Financial Corporation, Carolina Casualty Insurance Company, Empire Fire & Marine Insurance Company (subsidiary of Zurich Financial Services Ltd.), Gateway Insurance Company, Global Liberty Insurance Company of New York, Grenada Insurance Company, Hereford Holding Company, Inc., Hartford Financial Services Group, Lancer Financial Group, MAPFRE USA, Maya Assurance Company, Mercury General Corporation, National Indemnity Company (subsidiary of Berkshire Hathaway, Inc.), National Interstate Corporation, Northland Insurance Company (subsidiary of Travelers Companies, Inc.), Safeco Corporation (subsidiary of Liberty Mutual), Scottsdale Insurance Company (National Casualty Company) and ULLICO, Inc.

    They've now acquired two of the handful of privately owned competitors on that list: Gateway and Global Liberty.

    Oddly, they do not list Tower Group, their largest competitor according to a major AFH investor who wrote this up elsewhere. Tower Group's commercial lines have since been picked up by AmTrust Financial. I haven't seen them comment on the taxi business specifically in their quarterly calls, presentations, or filings.

    Your second question is easier to answer, and an important point that I omitted. Per the latest slides, insiders own ~10% of the stock. They invested millions at the time of the Kingsway going-public transaction.
    Mar 4, 2015. 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Atlas Financial: This Commercial Auto Insurer Is Just Getting Revved Up [View article]
    Gentle readers: I inadvertently left out a Key Stats section, and am working with editorial to get it added..
    Feb 27, 2015. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    That is very thin gruel compared to the spread on QTETR last year. It traded in the .60s and .70s for months after the merger announcement. I would personally wait for a better opportunity.
    Feb 27, 2015. 12:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Chris DeMuth, Jr. Positions For 2015: Banking M&A, Milestone Payments, Litigation Results [View article]
    What's the most likely event path now that BDX has complied with the injunction, rather than buying RVP or settling? Put another way, how long will it take RVP to get paid?
    Feb 17, 2015. 01:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Harvest Natural withdraws case against Venezuela [View news story]
    Unbelievable.
    Jan 29, 2015. 03:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    Spoke to a friend who's done a lot of odd lots and in his experience the odd lot provision is usually there from the preliminary filing. He hasn't seen one added in. Has anyone ever seen that happen?

    Having changed my view on the likelihood of an odd lot provision, I am out as of today's close. May come back for a third bite if the volatility keeps up.
    Jan 23, 2015. 04:10 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    Carfinco Enters into Letter of Intent with respect to the Sale of its US Business

    EDMONTON, Jan. 22, 2015 /CNW/ - Carfinco Financial Group Inc. ("Carfinco") (TSX: CFN) announces today that it has entered into a non-binding and non-exclusive letter of intent which sets forth the principal transaction terms with respect to the sale of its subsidiary Persian Acceptance Corp. and certain affiliated entities, the disposition of which is a condition of closing the previously announced plan of arrangement (the "Arrangement") with Banco Santander, S.A. ("Santander") (CATS: SAN, NYSE: SAN, BATS-CHIXE: SANE).

    "Remaining closing conditions include the sale of our US business and obtaining the regulatory approval from the Bank of Spain." said Tracy Graf, CEO of Carfinco. "Both Carfinco and Santander continue to work diligently towards completing the sale of our US Business and obtaining the applicable approval from the Bank of Spain. Carfinco remains confident that the Arrangement could be completed within the timelines outlined within the Arrangement Agreement. "
    Jan 22, 2015. 08:24 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    Yes, I was really surprised to see it hit $50 on the 14th. I think there's a reasonable chance we see an odd lot provision, which makes me comfortable taking a position below $46.
    Jan 22, 2015. 08:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    I'm in for a second go-round..
    Jan 22, 2015. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Was Wrong On Searchlight Minerals [View article]
    I was slagging this company five years ago. Kind of amazed they've kept the story going this long.

    http://bit.ly/1GvcfMD
    Jan 21, 2015. 10:12 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    Yes it was. Thank you, sir.
    Jan 14, 2015. 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (Though Any Arb Can Be Discussed) [View instapost]
    Thanks for setting this up. Should be both fun and profitable.
    Jan 13, 2015. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Triangle Petroleum: What Are The Assets Worth? [View article]
    Edit:
    "At $100 million, the valuation gives credit to high equipment utilization and margins and Triangle's plan to continue to grow the business at an aggressive pace, adding two spreads per year." $100 million should be corrected to $100 per barrel oil.

    Praise:
    Thanks as usual for the well-informed discussion, Richard.
    Dec 12, 2014. 09:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Overlooked World Energy Solutions: High-Margin Recurring Revenue Growth Business With Near-Term Catalysts Available At Deep Value Levels [View article]
    You made it into the merger docs:

    "Later that day, the Special Committee held a telephonic meeting with representatives of Loeb to discuss the contents, potential impact of, and options to consider to address a letter that had been received from a stockholder the prior day and an anonymous article posted on the Seeking Alpha website earlier that morning."
    http://1.usa.gov/1yu4uSy
    Dec 8, 2014. 05:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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