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Toby Shute  

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  • Over-Reaction From Oil Prices Give Badger Daylighting A 30% Upside [View article]
    Tor's beneficial ownership, including deferred units, was ~400k shares as of the date of the latest management info circular, for a ~C$10M stake. You can find it on SEDAR.
    Aug 7, 2015. 04:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Badger Daylighting Can Dig Its Way Out [View article]
    Who do you consider the company's peers to be? There is no direct comp that I'm aware of, so do you mean other O&G / utility service companies?
    Aug 7, 2015. 03:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Blog- Part Three [View instapost]
    I would think there would be more parasites out there in the ecosystem. I guess it's more fun betting on the quarterly earnings of S&P 500 companies.
    Jul 31, 2015. 04:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Blog- Part Three [View instapost]
    TIER is a layup odd lot tender to my eye and I don't understand why the spread is so wide.
    Jul 31, 2015. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Blog- Part Three [View instapost]
    GSOL tender closed with no hiccups
    Jul 29, 2015. 03:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (PART 2) [View instapost]
    Alter NRG clears CFIUS review, +14% to roughly the cash deal price.
    Jul 21, 2015. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Stock Trading For 20% Of NCAV [View instapost]
    Good question.

    Short answer:
    Because it's cheap.

    Slightly longer answer:
    Because it's cheap, I can identify why it's cheap, and while I can't imagine sentiment getting much worse, I can imagine several scenarios where sentiment improves and the discount to NAV narrows.

    Additional commentary:
    There's a lot of uncertainty here, but I do believe the cash on the books is real. This company built a real mine and sold it to an arm's-length ASX-listed third party. The question is will I ever see any of that cash, or benefit from it in any way whatsoever, as an outside passive minority investor.

    I can't predict what the outcome will be here, but I do think it's reasonably likely that the company will buy something and the suspension on ASX quotation will be lifted. I'm not expecting fireworks by any means, but even a mediocre deal should see the company trade at a narrower discount to NAV. That could produce a 2x or 3x return from these levels.

    About the worst outcome I can dream up is that the controlling shareholder orchestrates a deal with a related party, disclosed or otherwise, that funnels all or most of the cash out of the company, leaving it worthless. But even in that case, there would be some legal recourse. In that regard, it's very helpful that this company is incorporated in Australia.
    Jun 16, 2015. 11:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A Stock Trading For 20% Of NCAV [View instapost]
    It was a conscious choice not to, given how illiquid and crazy this idea is.
    Jun 16, 2015. 02:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Merger Arbitrage Forum (PART 2) [View instapost]
    Alter NRG (TSX: NRG) has a C$5/share cash offer from a Chinese buyer subject to a 45-day CFIUS investigation expiring July 20th. Stock is at C$4.53. Could make for a blistering IRR. I don't know how to handicap such things, but someone here might.
    Jun 10, 2015. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rosetta Stone confirms buyout interest; shares +11.5% [View news story]
    RST had $45.9M of cash and an undrawn $25M revolver at the end of Q1. They have no debt, aside from some leases. I hope that you would review the balance sheet before taking a position, or even before posting an uninformed comment like this.
    Jun 8, 2015. 12:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 8% Yield With Interest Rate Protection From PennantPark Floating Rate Capital [View article]
    That $5.30/share figure announced today looks familiar!
    Jun 3, 2015. 06:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 Of Seeking Alpha's Best [View article]
    Chris, if he's not already on your list, Mike Arnold should be there. Check out his work on $RDCM and $RSYS.
    May 27, 2015. 06:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Agilysys Shares Could Be On The Cusp Of Breaking Out [View article]
    MAK's regulatory AUM is ~$575M, but I don't know what their net AUM is. Pretty sure it's well north of $160M, which might be all that shows up on the 13F.
    May 26, 2015. 11:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alberta Oilsands Update [View article]
    Stock up to C$0.125 on news of receipt of C$35.1M

    Strategic review ongoing..
    May 26, 2015. 11:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time To Go Active [View article]
    My understanding is that HYLD was overweight energy going into the correction last year, which is the primary reason you are underperforming a passive high yield index by ~1380 bps over the past 12 months, per Morningstar. So you did separate yourselves when the market got volatile, just not in a good way.

    I agree that your active management approach can add value going forward, now that you're being selective with your energy exposure following the big drop in crude prices. That said, the very recent experience of the fund, which weakens your argument that active beats passive in volatile environments, is a bit of a glaring omission.
    May 21, 2015. 05:45 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
156 Comments
110 Likes