Seeking Alpha

Todd Feldman

 
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  • Don't Rush To Buy Stocks At These Levels [View article]
    where did you get the data for the margin?
    Aug 20 05:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will There Be A Major Financial Crisis, Short Correction, Sideways Action Or A Bull Market? [View article]
    Thank you for the technical trading comments. The point I was trying to make that one must manipulate the underlying components first before creating an index. If I am doing technical analysis on the S&P 500 I am manipulating the price series to make predictions. My point is that you need to dis-aggregate the S&P 500 first, then manipulate the underlying price action of the pieces, then re-aggregate.
    Aug 6 04:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Will There Be A Major Financial Crisis, Short Correction, Sideways Action Or A Bull Market? [View article]
    Thank you independent investor (who also has some nice articles). That is the entire point of cycle work. It does not matter what the market backdrop is meaning if the interest rate levels were higher back in the 80s, higher GDP growth etc. If you believe in cycles the cycle will play out because the temperature gauge is similar. It is more about human behavior and the expectations of the market participants than the fundamental levels themselves. If you believe that emotion and irrational behavior can play a role in the formation of expectations which affect the level of asset prices that you can believe in our methodology. If you believe that expectations are formed rationally with all the available data then you cannot believe in our models.

    Also, people think of the 1980s as a great period. On August 25, 1987 the S&P 500 closed around 327. The last time we saw 327 was January 17th 1991. That is three and half years of going no where. That is the type of environment we are in.
    Aug 6 04:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Correction Coming - Yes Or No? [View article]
    Thank you for the comments. If the S&P 500 makes a new high this summer then the probability of a correction late in the year to early next year increases significantly.
    Jul 13 10:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Correction Coming - Yes Or No? [View article]
    Also, we lay out in more detail how we come to the prediction we do in our newsletter.
    Jul 4 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Correction Coming - Yes Or No? [View article]
    The idea about cycles is that the two different periods in the same cycle can have different circumstances behind the movement of the stock price.
    Jul 4 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell In May And Go Away? No. Buy In May And Sell Away [View article]
    Mikhail,
    We determine what equity cycle we are currently in. We do not look at fundamentals. We believe the cycles are determined by human behavior and if one can model human behavior they can improve market timing. You are correct in that the environments are very different as far as fundamentals. However, one fundamental similarity is that money supply was increasing rapidly 1986 similar to today. Also, from a logic perspective sell in May and go away cannot work every year.
    Apr 10 05:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Should You Allocate Your Money? [View article]
    Thank you for the comment. An investor could use this in many different ways. For example, an individual investor who targets let's say 40% US, 30% Europe, and 30% Emerging Market for the equity allocation. Within that emerging market allocation they may want to increase their allocation towards Asian tigers such as Malaysia and Thailand. Or a portfolio manager looking for a new investment idea may find Asian Tigers attractive and allocate a small amount of their portfolio to those ETFs. The portfolio I generate has a low turnover. I have held the above portfolio since December. Most trading is because of portfolio re-balancing.
    Mar 14 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Investors Should Be Fully Invested In U.S. Markets For 2012 [View article]
    Thanks for the comments. We believe sentiment provides a wealth of information. It contains information about fundamentals as well as irrational optimism and fear. Let us take two cases as examples, rational only as well as rational/irrational. When only rational behavior exists asset prices tend to move around fundamental value. Therefore, we can use our indices to evaluate which markets are strong fundamentally. The US is relatively strong right now and there exists no irrational sentiment. No need to breakdown the economic data or corporate profits, etc. When irrational sentiment exists we extract that information from our index to exploit optimal entry and exit points. Take a look at our October article on Irrational Fear. Fundamental analysis is good for long-term outlooks but poor for knowing when to enter and exit positions. Technical analysis is poor for long-term outlook but better for entering and exiting positions. Sentiment combines both. The difficulty is knowing how to construct sentiment.
    Feb 3 01:16 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Look Bullish For Most Of 2012; Hedge In The Fall [View article]
    We spell it all the different scenarios in our newsletter.
    Jan 22 02:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Irrational Fear Exist In Global Markets? [View article]
    Thank you for the comments. That is the entire point of the piece, according to the spread I calculate we are not in a 2007-2009 or 1973-1975 type period. We are in a1978-1980 period where there are a lots of up and downs but going no where.
    Oct 2 10:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators Could Show U.S. Economy Is Not Contracting [View article]
    How do you come about the 40% number? Is this mostly based on the probably of a sovereign debt/banking crisis in Europe occurring?
    Sep 23 09:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators Could Show U.S. Economy Is Not Contracting [View article]
    Nice piece. I like how your articles are data oriented as well as probability oriented as opposed to pushing a view.

    Our indicators suggest no crisis on the horizon. Our current numbers that match the numbers of the past suggest the US stock market does not go much lower. This some what coincides with your piece. However, the data only goes back until 1970, not 1929 which is the better comparison.
    Sep 22 11:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks Finish With Sharp Declines [View article]
    So far the model has been correct this year.

    seekingalpha.com/artic...
    Jun 10 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Measures Show That There Is No Favorite New Trade, Sitting on Cash Is Recommended [View article]
    bfiadvisors.blogspot.com/
    Jun 10 04:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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