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Todd Kenyon, CFA

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  • The New King Of Coach: Stuart Vevers [View article]
    Thanks Southfl for the great comment. So is the solution to drastically downsize the outlet channel and take the near term pain - seems to me it is. And/or sit on product longer before allowing it to be sold at outlets - intentionally delay by 1-2 seasons to create more separation between the prime customer and the outlet pickers? I agree with another commenter that I repeatedly see long lines out the door at the COH outlet near me in Mass.
    Oct 17 12:43 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: eBay Faces Trouble Ahead [View article]
    127 comments? How many sellers does Ebay have? What percentage is negative/having problems? Is this increasing? At what rate? Those are the questions that matter. Every business with a large user base has disgruntled users. There will always be a certain percentage of folks that are just idiots and are disgruntled no matter what the co does. If you've ever run a business you know this is true. They are also often the loudest complainers. What are the real stats here?
    Oct 17 12:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The New King Of Coach: Stuart Vevers [View article]
    Great comments here from folks who know. I have a small long position initiated recently. Clearly it won't be a fast turn. Does it make any sense for them to do a "Brand X by Coach" line at lower price points and confine that line to outlet stores (and in fact make the great majority of SKUs offered at outlets Brand X)? Less dilution to the Coach brand image?
    Oct 16 12:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Xoom And PayPal Out To Disrupt Payments Industry [View article]
    Bingo. I agree Mitch. Cross-border money transfers are a different animal that WU specializes in and has the size to deal with the growing regulatory burden. If Xoom doesn't have a network of agents (of which WU has an extensive example), then yes the guy in Guatemala will need a internet connection and maybe a bank account. That is where WU comes in. No bank account or internet needed.
    Oct 7 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • National Oilwell Varco's Growth Story Continues [View article]
    I can ask for better ROA and ROIC. That is what is keeping me away. Can it really be a "good" business with returns that low?
    Oct 7 11:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • TJX Companies Is Best Of Breed [View article]
    One of the best retailers period. Huge ROIC, and one of the least susceptible formats to internet disruption. Folks like to physically browse for apparel (and apparently home goods) bargains, touch the stuff and try it on. And these guys have figured out the secret to obtaining quality, interesting merchandise at great prices. I remember my mom raving about their stores in the 80s. Have been long since the <$10 days. Also a long term holding of Sequoia last time I looked. It rarely looks cheap. Would love to buy more. Need it cheaper though. Will probably need a major market hiccup to get it cheap enough.
    Sep 26 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach Has Staying Power, Michael Kors Doesn't [View article]
    I think the author is trying to say here that the more explosive the rise of a brand, the more precipitous the fall. Coach has a long track record over many decades of staying relevant. Anyone in the fashion industry will have bad periods where mistakes are made. But if a brand's style is cutting edge, new and "in your face", it can quickly attract the hordes of fashionistas and copycats, only to flame out when these ultra fickle folks suddenly decide something else is cool. It is hard to build a sustainable long term franchise on eye-catching bling. If you don't come up with the next big thing repeatedly, you are toast. Coach has a more sustainable design base and franchise. Could they run the thing into the ground? Yes, but I think history might indicate they can turn it around.
    Sep 26 10:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach Has Staying Power, Michael Kors Doesn't [View article]
    The tone and content of the arguments against COH in these comments have definitely made me more interested in taking a serious look at COH as a long.
    Sep 25 01:21 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Union: Shares Provide Decent Upside With Lower Risk [View article]
    bonus - Cramer came out against WU last night - parroting the consensus as always, said it is a value trap. Back up the truck!
    Sep 24 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Union: Shares Provide Decent Upside With Lower Risk [View article]
    Agree. No comments? Nobody cares apparently - so it must be cheap. Long WU.
    Sep 23 04:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Circle Of Competence, Fat Pitches, And How To Become The Best Plumber In Bemidji [View article]
    I think he would also say that if you understand the concept of value, you might try to invest more cash in index funds when market sentiment is negative and/or multiples are depressed. If it was me and I decided to no longer pick stocks, I would start with a baseline index fund investment, and then add more monthly if I deemed market sentiment negative/valuation below average, and less if I felt sentiment/valuation was frothy. Of course average folks will do the opposite so they would be better off just investing regularly and ignoring the market.
    Sep 23 03:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Mobile Advertising Will Boost eBay's Revenue [View article]
    Amazon has another way to hose their sellers. Talked a guy who is in a garment item distribution business. They distribute several bands to large stores as well as many small businesses. Amazon tracks what sells best in their (small) seller's stores. In this case a particular brand had a few styles selling well in this small merchant's store. Amazon (who previously had no relation with the distributor) suddenly approached the distributor and placed a huge order for the exact items this small seller has been doing well with. Overnight the small biz's sales cratered. Anyone else hear of such practices? (long EBAY, no pos AMZN).
    Sep 23 11:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Only Looks Good For Yield [View article]
    They did have a really good burger - the Angus burgers were pretty legit. What happened to those? Beef prices kill them? Or just no demand for a better higher priced burger from their clientele?
    Sep 23 10:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Is Materially Undervalued [View article]
    Have you ever eaten out in a Scandinavian country? Outrageously expensive. Not a valid comp at all. Dining out anywhere, even McDonalds, is a special occasion for most Scandinavians.

    I like this analysis. The major quip I have is the cap rate - I would not have used 5%. More like 8%. Back when Ackman was pitching his plan for MCD to spin off the RE as a REIT and "unlock value" (only for him so he could sell before the franchise fell into ruin) he was using silly cap rates based on real estate bubble valuations. When I asked him if this was fair and what would happen to his thesis if if he used fiar rates based on full cycle averages, I pretty much got a blank stare...
    Sep 19 11:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • CapEx Is Still MIA [View article]
    Chanos is right in that if the co is a serial acquirer, you must deduct at least some portion of acquisition costs from free cash flow. Otherwise a company that just acquires other cos in order to grow it's assets could effectively report almost zero capex and hence overstated FCF (if you don't consider the acquisition costs).
    Aug 27 03:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment