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Todd Kenyon, CFA  

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  • Smoking Cigar Butts, Or How Betting On Obsolescing Technologies Can Make You Money [View article]
    Nice thought-provoking article. I feel this way about cable tv. Was it Gates who said something like "new technologies take much longer than anticipated to catch on, but the ones that do become much bigger than anyone originally predicted"?
    Apr 16, 2015. 11:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Increases Berkshire Hathaway's Stake In IBM - Let's Analyze It [View article]
    I feel that Buffett adjusts capex to a value required for maintenance of competitive position - hence separating out maintenance and growth capex. This IMO is the diff between FCF and OE. I think most folks already adjust for working capital changes when calculating FCF.

    Why the big dropoff in OE but not FCF last year? Is it a one-off or a trend? The answer makes a huge difference in intrinsic value.
    Mar 31, 2015. 03:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Express Down 14% Year To Date, But We're Staying Long [View article]
    The reason many merchants do not accept Amex is it might cost them 1% more vs the customer using a Visa (e.g. a small retailer may pay Visa 1.7% for every Visa transaction, and 2.7% for Amex). HOWEVER - the recent proliferation of mobile pay solutions mitigates this somewhat. For example Square charges merchants a flat 2.7% regardless of what card is used. Paypal, B of A, Intiuit etc are similar.
    Mar 30, 2015. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Message To McDonald's Management: Don't Sell The Real Estate Assets [View article]
    Basically what Ackman proposed in 2006. I asked him if it still made sense at normal cap rates vs the then-infllated rates he was using to value the REIT. (crickets).... just looking for a quick buck. MCD will not do this.
    Mar 19, 2015. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Redacted Version Of The March 2015 FOMC Statement [View article]
    While I agree with your analysis, I feel the more important question is not whether/when the Fed should tighten, but whether we should really be at 0% (or negative) rates? Are things that bad? Or should be sitting at 1+% for example and talking about whether to raise from there?
    Mar 19, 2015. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola's Fairlife Milk Drink Has 'Masterbrand' Potential [View article]
    Check the ingredients for the chocolate - ridiculous IMO looks like a chemistry experiment. Disappointed that this is the best they can do in today's health-conscious market: Ingredients: Reduced Fat Ultra-filtered Milk, Sugar, Alkalized Cocoa, Lactase Enzyme, Dipotassium Phosphate, Salt, Acesulfame Potassium, Carrageenan, Natural And Artificial Flavors, Sucralose, Vitamin A Palmitate, Vitamin D3

    Artificial sweeteners even though sugar is the 2nd ingredient. (Long KO but not as long as I used to be)
    Feb 9, 2015. 04:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • These 5 Signs Indicate That Oil May Have Already Hit Rock Bottom [View article]
    I generally agree - but gold/oil - couldn't it be that gold needs to come down rather than oil going up?
    Jan 28, 2015. 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC Made A Huge Mistake That We Can All Profit From [View article]
    How much daily prod capacity has come offline due to reduced US rig count (you cite ~ 190 rigs)?
    Jan 28, 2015. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Isn't Cheap Yet [View article]
    Those angus burgers they had for a while were pretty legit. But they failed anyway. Not what MCD clientele wanted I guess. Hence I don't think people go to MCD looking for a premium $5 burger.
    Jan 26, 2015. 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's WiFi Firestorm: Not A Threat, But Could Lead To An Acquisition [View article]
    Does this apply to iPhones? Been having wifi issues on my 6+ both at home and work, vs no probs at all with my 5s. Have to kill and restart wifi all the time as it just hangs - no email etc yet shows it is still connected. Today had to reboot the phone to get it back....
    Jan 13, 2015. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: Tremendous Growth Opportunities Still Abound In China [View article]
    Thanks for the insight. Would love to hear your thoughts on KO's prospects in China!
    Jan 9, 2015. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Does Coca-Cola Measure Up Now Compared To When Warren Buffett First Bought It In 1988? [View article]
    Good article and I generally agree. Have held KO for most of my career and bought some more when multiples got relatively low. Now they are not as you demonstrate. That said the average FCFY looks to be not far from today's 4%. But it is a difficult chart to make general statements about due to 88's peak and the valley caused by the late 90s bubble. I tend to look at the average FCFY (based on FCF from the last few years) and evaluate the company based on zero growth and then some conservative growth number with a simple DDM (using the FCF as the dividend). I believe you do something similar in your Buffett Models. Coke never looks particularly cheap, but in light of their current challenges I consider it expensive. Add an expensive market and I am inclined to trim my holdings. One comment: I don't think you define "cash flow" but it looks like you are using OCF. Some folks would call EBITDA "cash flow". I like to use OCF as it includes working capital changes etc.
    Jan 6, 2015. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Worries Weigh On FEMSA [View article]
    Great summary. Long-time FMX long. Holding for now.
    Dec 22, 2014. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple The Most Important Stock On Earth? [View article]
    There it is. I always felt that was how most WS sellside analysts operate. When you see a guy saying" Buy - our 12 mo target is (insert a round number here that is 20%+- above current prices) based on a 18.7x multiple of our earnings estimate" you know the multiple was the last thing generated - and the price target was the first. Earnings estimate is just some shot in the dark puked out of a giant spreadsheet, or else just parroting mgmt guidance. I think most honest analysts would do it the opposite way...
    Dec 4, 2014. 11:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • They Say The End Is Near: It's 2004 All Over Again For Coca-Cola [View article]
    I generally agree with your article. Have been long KO for a long time for both client and personal accounts. If they can come up with a diet or low cal coke that tastes similar to real Coke and doesn't contain bizarre chemicals, I might start drinking more than a few per year. My teenagers seem to care less about "healthy options" and will go for a Coke (although we restrict consumption to reasonable levels) before anything else, and they have two health conscious athlete parents so I would consider them way more knowledgeable about nutrition than your average kid. No signs of them ditching Coke or MCD for that matter. My main problem is the valuation - I am holding now, but would consider trimming if the price rises in the near term. I have only added at select times when multiples were historically low, and the recent pullback was too shallow and too brief.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment