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Todd Kenyon, CFA  

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  • This Is What You Need To Know About Annaly Capital [View article]
    Long-time NLY owner. Typically this is the time to buy NLY - the market has largely priced in interest-rate fears, big negativity in the sector. The time to sell is usually when it gets to the high-teens and a noticeable premium to book. Over the cycle if you've held you have historically done well. But there is the issue - the Wellie factor. I always had confidence that Mike F had seen it all before and knew how to deal with most any scenario. Now with the new comp structure and no more Mike, I am re-evaluating. I agree with Ray that Wellington has not instilled confidence, and this is a company that needs good management to prosper.
    May 11, 2015. 09:32 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Updating My Investment Thesis On McDonald's [View article]
    MCD should NOT try to add healthy fare or "adapt" to modern tastes. The scariest thing I have heard recently is that they are adding kale to the menu in CA. RIDICULOUS! People don't and never will go to MCD for health. Convenience, salt, sugar, fat. Feel-good flavors fast. They CREATED this category, hence they should streamline their efforts, stick to their core offerings. And yes, store-level management is a big issue. Wrong orders, dirty heads, dingy stores should not be tolerated. Their key assets are their key locations and ubiquitous availability. Not to mention their brand and the associated experience. FOCUS there MCD - please.
    May 8, 2015. 12:08 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time Warner Is Growing A House Of Value [View article]
    If you are comparing EV to earnings, you must use Earnings before Interest (and account for the interest tax benefit).
    May 4, 2015. 10:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • FEMSA Leveraging OXXO And Has Ample Dry Powder [View article]
    Thanks for the article. I have held since before the Cerveza deal - it has done very well. I agree that it still has some great assets and levers to pull.
    May 4, 2015. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Smoking Cigar Butts, Or How Betting On Obsolescing Technologies Can Make You Money [View article]
    Nice thought-provoking article. I feel this way about cable tv. Was it Gates who said something like "new technologies take much longer than anticipated to catch on, but the ones that do become much bigger than anyone originally predicted"?
    Apr 16, 2015. 11:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Warren Buffett Increases Berkshire Hathaway's Stake In IBM - Let's Analyze It [View article]
    I feel that Buffett adjusts capex to a value required for maintenance of competitive position - hence separating out maintenance and growth capex. This IMO is the diff between FCF and OE. I think most folks already adjust for working capital changes when calculating FCF.

    Why the big dropoff in OE but not FCF last year? Is it a one-off or a trend? The answer makes a huge difference in intrinsic value.
    Mar 31, 2015. 03:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • American Express Down 14% Year To Date, But We're Staying Long [View article]
    The reason many merchants do not accept Amex is it might cost them 1% more vs the customer using a Visa (e.g. a small retailer may pay Visa 1.7% for every Visa transaction, and 2.7% for Amex). HOWEVER - the recent proliferation of mobile pay solutions mitigates this somewhat. For example Square charges merchants a flat 2.7% regardless of what card is used. Paypal, B of A, Intiuit etc are similar.
    Mar 30, 2015. 11:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Message To McDonald's Management: Don't Sell The Real Estate Assets [View article]
    Basically what Ackman proposed in 2006. I asked him if it still made sense at normal cap rates vs the then-infllated rates he was using to value the REIT. (crickets).... just looking for a quick buck. MCD will not do this.
    Mar 19, 2015. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Redacted Version Of The March 2015 FOMC Statement [View article]
    While I agree with your analysis, I feel the more important question is not whether/when the Fed should tighten, but whether we should really be at 0% (or negative) rates? Are things that bad? Or should be sitting at 1+% for example and talking about whether to raise from there?
    Mar 19, 2015. 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coca-Cola's Fairlife Milk Drink Has 'Masterbrand' Potential [View article]
    Check the ingredients for the chocolate - ridiculous IMO looks like a chemistry experiment. Disappointed that this is the best they can do in today's health-conscious market: Ingredients: Reduced Fat Ultra-filtered Milk, Sugar, Alkalized Cocoa, Lactase Enzyme, Dipotassium Phosphate, Salt, Acesulfame Potassium, Carrageenan, Natural And Artificial Flavors, Sucralose, Vitamin A Palmitate, Vitamin D3

    Artificial sweeteners even though sugar is the 2nd ingredient. (Long KO but not as long as I used to be)
    Feb 9, 2015. 04:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • These 5 Signs Indicate That Oil May Have Already Hit Rock Bottom [View article]
    I generally agree - but gold/oil - couldn't it be that gold needs to come down rather than oil going up?
    Jan 28, 2015. 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC Made A Huge Mistake That We Can All Profit From [View article]
    How much daily prod capacity has come offline due to reduced US rig count (you cite ~ 190 rigs)?
    Jan 28, 2015. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Isn't Cheap Yet [View article]
    Those angus burgers they had for a while were pretty legit. But they failed anyway. Not what MCD clientele wanted I guess. Hence I don't think people go to MCD looking for a premium $5 burger.
    Jan 26, 2015. 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's WiFi Firestorm: Not A Threat, But Could Lead To An Acquisition [View article]
    Does this apply to iPhones? Been having wifi issues on my 6+ both at home and work, vs no probs at all with my 5s. Have to kill and restart wifi all the time as it just hangs - no email etc yet shows it is still connected. Today had to reboot the phone to get it back....
    Jan 13, 2015. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: Tremendous Growth Opportunities Still Abound In China [View article]
    Thanks for the insight. Would love to hear your thoughts on KO's prospects in China!
    Jan 9, 2015. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment