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Todd Kenyon, CFA  

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  • Coca-Cola's Fairlife Milk Drink Has 'Masterbrand' Potential [View article]
    Check the ingredients for the chocolate - ridiculous IMO looks like a chemistry experiment. Disappointed that this is the best they can do in today's health-conscious market: Ingredients: Reduced Fat Ultra-filtered Milk, Sugar, Alkalized Cocoa, Lactase Enzyme, Dipotassium Phosphate, Salt, Acesulfame Potassium, Carrageenan, Natural And Artificial Flavors, Sucralose, Vitamin A Palmitate, Vitamin D3

    Artificial sweeteners even though sugar is the 2nd ingredient. (Long KO but not as long as I used to be)
    Feb 9, 2015. 04:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • These 5 Signs Indicate That Oil May Have Already Hit Rock Bottom [View article]
    I generally agree - but gold/oil - couldn't it be that gold needs to come down rather than oil going up?
    Jan 28, 2015. 04:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC Made A Huge Mistake That We Can All Profit From [View article]
    How much daily prod capacity has come offline due to reduced US rig count (you cite ~ 190 rigs)?
    Jan 28, 2015. 04:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's Isn't Cheap Yet [View article]
    Those angus burgers they had for a while were pretty legit. But they failed anyway. Not what MCD clientele wanted I guess. Hence I don't think people go to MCD looking for a premium $5 burger.
    Jan 26, 2015. 06:15 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's WiFi Firestorm: Not A Threat, But Could Lead To An Acquisition [View article]
    Does this apply to iPhones? Been having wifi issues on my 6+ both at home and work, vs no probs at all with my 5s. Have to kill and restart wifi all the time as it just hangs - no email etc yet shows it is still connected. Today had to reboot the phone to get it back....
    Jan 13, 2015. 02:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • McDonald's: Tremendous Growth Opportunities Still Abound In China [View article]
    Thanks for the insight. Would love to hear your thoughts on KO's prospects in China!
    Jan 9, 2015. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Does Coca-Cola Measure Up Now Compared To When Warren Buffett First Bought It In 1988? [View article]
    Good article and I generally agree. Have held KO for most of my career and bought some more when multiples got relatively low. Now they are not as you demonstrate. That said the average FCFY looks to be not far from today's 4%. But it is a difficult chart to make general statements about due to 88's peak and the valley caused by the late 90s bubble. I tend to look at the average FCFY (based on FCF from the last few years) and evaluate the company based on zero growth and then some conservative growth number with a simple DDM (using the FCF as the dividend). I believe you do something similar in your Buffett Models. Coke never looks particularly cheap, but in light of their current challenges I consider it expensive. Add an expensive market and I am inclined to trim my holdings. One comment: I don't think you define "cash flow" but it looks like you are using OCF. Some folks would call EBITDA "cash flow". I like to use OCF as it includes working capital changes etc.
    Jan 6, 2015. 10:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Worries Weigh On FEMSA [View article]
    Great summary. Long-time FMX long. Holding for now.
    Dec 22, 2014. 11:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Apple The Most Important Stock On Earth? [View article]
    There it is. I always felt that was how most WS sellside analysts operate. When you see a guy saying" Buy - our 12 mo target is (insert a round number here that is 20%+- above current prices) based on a 18.7x multiple of our earnings estimate" you know the multiple was the last thing generated - and the price target was the first. Earnings estimate is just some shot in the dark puked out of a giant spreadsheet, or else just parroting mgmt guidance. I think most honest analysts would do it the opposite way...
    Dec 4, 2014. 11:25 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • They Say The End Is Near: It's 2004 All Over Again For Coca-Cola [View article]
    I generally agree with your article. Have been long KO for a long time for both client and personal accounts. If they can come up with a diet or low cal coke that tastes similar to real Coke and doesn't contain bizarre chemicals, I might start drinking more than a few per year. My teenagers seem to care less about "healthy options" and will go for a Coke (although we restrict consumption to reasonable levels) before anything else, and they have two health conscious athlete parents so I would consider them way more knowledgeable about nutrition than your average kid. No signs of them ditching Coke or MCD for that matter. My main problem is the valuation - I am holding now, but would consider trimming if the price rises in the near term. I have only added at select times when multiples were historically low, and the recent pullback was too shallow and too brief.
    Dec 3, 2014. 02:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coach: About To Acquire An Affordable Luxury Shoe Retailer? [View article]
    I live in RI. One of if not the worst business states in the US and highest unemployment (or 2nd or 3rd - not sure where latest survey puts it). The problem is with the state of RI, not COH.
    Dec 3, 2014. 11:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Data Center Growth Likely To Add 30% To Intel Stock [View article]
    It should be an SA requirement that anyone who cites an analyst opinion/ratings change etc must also post a ratings history graph. These are typically on the last page of analyst reports, and if everyone looked at these first, in most cases they would know that reading the report or parroting the rating is useless. In fact these graphs are often good for comic relief - it is astounding how frequently the analyst ratings and changes are 180 degrees out of sync with company and stock performance. IMO, worse than random.
    Nov 26, 2014. 10:55 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Valuation Analysis: Undervalued On Fundamentals [View article]
    Bingo - if you use a 4.,92% WACC, you are really saying that you only require a return of 4.92% on your investment. I require a lot more than that - I use a min discount rate of 10%. FORGET ABOUT WACC unless you are a corporation looking to buy another corporation, and even then you should use an average WACC that applies over a full business cycle. That all said I am very long INTC since the sub 20 range.
    Nov 26, 2014. 10:43 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does McDonald's Need To Revamp McCafé? [View article]
    Excellent info. Sounds like MCD management has "consultantitis" - whether they have actually used mgmt consultants or not. Somebody (themselves?) has sold them a bill of goods. People do not come to MCD for a broad menu of "affordable luxuries". They come for salty burgers, fries, shakes and nuggets. Too many choices is a bad thing for any merchant, especially if it dilutes your core offering, hurts the quality, and worsens service. Look at Chipoltle (as everyone does) - you only really have a handful of choices. Yes occasional carefully vetted food/drink specials can work well. But if mgmt diverted all the time and money spent on non-core add-ons towards improving the quality of core offerings, they might have something. I frequently see commenters here talk about how busy overseas restaurants are. Ever try a burger at a Euro MCD? In my experience they are of substantially better quality and taste then your typical US version.
    Nov 7, 2014. 02:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is IBM Creating Economic Value? [View article]
    First, I do own some IBM (from much lower prices) in my managed portfolios. I am seriously looking at cashing in however. That said, this analysis is really just an arbitrary math exercise. WACC of 1-5%? Cost of equity 2-6%? C'mon, get serious. I actually attended one of G. Bennett Stewarts's EVA courses many year's ago, even had lunch with "Mr EVA". Neither he nor his band of fellow financial engineers could rationally explain what constitutes a valid cost of equity, or what the hell the equity risk premium should be. The general concept makes sense and is very basic - generate a spread between cost of and return on capital. As soon as you start running calcs tho it becomes arbitrary junk. For start, if you really want to run calcs like this, at least assume a risk free rate and equity risk premium that makes sense over a normal business cycle. Using the earnings yield is silly - 6% is a fair premium but you get a NEGATIVE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM in 99. Not possible. The EVA boys also don't have a great answer for the debt/equity conundrum - if you keep adding debt your WACC goes down. Except that in the real world we know this is untrue. At what point does more debt start to make the WACC go up (crickets...). Oh yeah - make sure you are looking at true debt to equity. I get <2 for 2013, not 4.5...
    Nov 6, 2014. 12:24 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
113 Comments
109 Likes