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Tom Armistead  

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  • Why Travelers Will Outperform: Value, Momentum, And Industry Tailwinds [View article]
    The way I look at TRV, more than half of their income comes from an extremely conservative investment portfolio. They sailed through the financial crisis without missing a beat.

    The underwriting income varies but the combined ratio ex-cat is generally well under 100.

    So looking at those two streams of income and applying multiples based on how secure they are, and after deducting for catastrophe in excess of reinsurance, I come up with a valuation (for my own purposes) of $127.

    The buybacks make a lot of sense, since they shouldn't be chasing business by lowering prices to where they lose money. So why not buy back shares and the policyholders if they are patient will have a nice capital gain that they don't have to take for years and years.
    Mar 29, 2015. 05:07 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel reportedly in talks to buy Altera; shares soar [View news story]
    darturtle, that depends on your time frame. Try looking at 1,3,5, and 10 years.

    I have a spreadsheet that compares their revenue over a ten year period. It's a seesaw battle, but Altera is winning.

    Try searching XLNX's earning calls transcripts for "acceleration." Not mentioned much, compared to ALTR's, where it's discussed in detail. XLNX missed the boat.

    It's hard to track the battle node by node but Altera won at 20 nm and is way ahead at 14 nm due to the Intel exclusive.
    Mar 29, 2015. 06:02 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Travelers Will Outperform: Value, Momentum, And Industry Tailwinds [View article]
    Ernie, TRV was the first insurance company to get really serious about analytics.

    Insurance has always had a pricing problem. The lure of cash flow to be invested as float would drive rates down to unprofitable levels, resulting in violent market cycles.

    Travelers management, underwriters and claims people have massive information thoroughly analyzed as a basis for establishing reserves and setting/negotiating rates. There is a tremendous amount of discipline to their process, due to the quality of their data analysis.

    The stock is chronically underpriced, as the market is not aware of the effect of analytics on the P&C pricing cycle. Also, the market doesn't like the catastrophe risk and demands an excessive risk premium due to fear of hurricanes, earthquakes, etc.

    While this article is useful in highlighting the value here, the template approach doesn't dig out the facts on analytics and the market's mispricing of catastrophe risk.
    Mar 29, 2015. 03:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel reportedly in talks to buy Altera; shares soar [View news story]
    Why don't you just Google FPGA server acceleration and read a few articles?
    Mar 28, 2015. 08:57 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barron's: JPMorgan could rise more than 30% [View news story]
    It's about breaking the law. DOJ doesn't like big banks breaking the law.

    Jamie adds to it by running his mouth: "Why's everybody always picking on me?"

    If he will shut his mouth and make his people obey the law the fines will come to an end.
    Mar 28, 2015. 08:04 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel reportedly in talks to buy Altera; shares soar [View news story]
    JSG,

    FPGAs can be used to accelerate server performance, the effect can be a radical improvement in speed and processing power. Important to Intel's DCG.
    Mar 28, 2015. 07:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel reportedly in talks to buy Altera; shares soar [View news story]
    Zip,

    I'm sorry. I can't help you if you won't listen and just keep spouting the same ideas over and over.

    I've made good money on INTC and ALTR using my analytical methods. An obsession with FCF is not one of them.

    My analysis examines all discretionary cash flow, and determines how skillful management is in deploying this stream in ways that will create value. It has been validated by back-testing and by my investment results. So just give it up on FCF, it's not what you should be looking at here.
    Mar 28, 2015. 07:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel reportedly in talks to buy Altera; shares soar [View news story]
    You're missing the point. Altera is going well above its former high point, based on the information you just ignored.

    I've been patiently waiting for that to happen and Intel may now make it happen earlier than would otherwise be the case.

    Please look up my three articles on ALTR and take the time to read them and learn something.
    Mar 28, 2015. 06:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel reportedly in talks to buy Altera; shares soar [View news story]
    Zipper0,

    I've written several articles on ALTR which discuss R&D and the phenomenon associated with ramping sales by a fabless chip designer. R&D is spent before any product ships. Then when production ramps, there is huge operating leverage and margins rise rapidly.

    Take a look at ALTR's earnings in 2010 and 2011, then look at what share prices did. With server acceleration coming up big and outclassing XLNX, ALTR has been getting ready for another run like 2010-2011. They borrowed money to buy back shares ahead of it. See my instablog for a discussion of how well they did buying back shares ahead of the last strong spell.

    I'm very pleased with my profits on both INTC and ALTR, and look forward to learning the details of the deal, if it happens.

    ALTR shows low FCF because they spend on R&D. R&D creates growth and profit.
    Mar 28, 2015. 05:18 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel reportedly in talks to buy Altera; shares soar [View news story]
    I'm long both INTC and ALTR, outsize positions, deep in the money LEAPS.

    I've owned CSCO and HPQ, neither of which is outstanding in terms of mergers. I think I sort of remember something about HPQ, something they bought while whatshisname was CEO, oh it's all coming back to me now, Apotheker and Autonomy. Ouch!

    Altera is the real deal.
    Mar 27, 2015. 07:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel reportedly in talks to buy Altera; shares soar [View news story]
    Zipper, INTC management understands R&D and IP.

    Altera is a fabless chip shop, capex has nothing to do with anything.

    Altera spends a lot on R&D and they have a lot of IP, some of it around server acceleration, key item here.

    You may be shocked when you see the final merger figure.
    Mar 27, 2015. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Correcting Misinformation Created By SA Contributor Josh Arnold  [View instapost]
    Thanks, I made my feelings known to the editors, maybe they can tighten up policy a bit to get it at least toned down some.
    Mar 27, 2015. 07:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Correcting Misinformation Created By SA Contributor Josh Arnold  [View instapost]
    Thanks for your support and encouragement.
    Mar 27, 2015. 07:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Correcting Misinformation Created By SA Contributor Josh Arnold  [View instapost]
    IBM has two things going on with employee stock compensation plans, I showed the larger one which involves issuing new shares.

    The smaller item, for which the accounting is murky, involves the use of treasury shares, with purchases and sales netted out. Not a big item, but I question if the true cost of employee compensation makes its way through the income statement.

    Mostly I tune this stuff out but the headlines on the home page of SA don't show the author, so even if you have figured out you don't want to read his stuff you might click on it by accident. Then once I'm there I see people earnestly commenting on material that is not factual in nature and I become concerned that novices are being led in ways that may cost them money needlessly.

    It's been a bad week on SA which is my hobby during the winter months, a lot of negativity and misinformation. Fortunately with the weather getting better I can spend some time in the woods and on the mountains hiking and enjoy a change of scene.
    Mar 27, 2015. 07:00 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Correcting Misinformation Created By SA Contributor Josh Arnold  [View instapost]
    I intended to post it as a regular article. SA rejected it on the grounds it was a personal attack.

    The comments can't take spreadsheets which I need to lay everything out nice and clear.

    I suppose I could post a link but that would be self-promotion which I don't do.

    I feel strongly about this and objected to the editors on the article in question, by the means provided, they have sent my material to the author and we'll see if he retracts or further obfuscates.
    Mar 27, 2015. 06:01 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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