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Tom Armistead  

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  • Intel reportedly in talks to buy Altera; shares soar [View news story]
    You're missing the point. Altera is going well above its former high point, based on the information you just ignored.

    I've been patiently waiting for that to happen and Intel may now make it happen earlier than would otherwise be the case.

    Please look up my three articles on ALTR and take the time to read them and learn something.
    Mar 28, 2015. 06:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel reportedly in talks to buy Altera; shares soar [View news story]
    Zipper0,

    I've written several articles on ALTR which discuss R&D and the phenomenon associated with ramping sales by a fabless chip designer. R&D is spent before any product ships. Then when production ramps, there is huge operating leverage and margins rise rapidly.

    Take a look at ALTR's earnings in 2010 and 2011, then look at what share prices did. With server acceleration coming up big and outclassing XLNX, ALTR has been getting ready for another run like 2010-2011. They borrowed money to buy back shares ahead of it. See my instablog for a discussion of how well they did buying back shares ahead of the last strong spell.

    I'm very pleased with my profits on both INTC and ALTR, and look forward to learning the details of the deal, if it happens.

    ALTR shows low FCF because they spend on R&D. R&D creates growth and profit.
    Mar 28, 2015. 05:18 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel reportedly in talks to buy Altera; shares soar [View news story]
    I'm long both INTC and ALTR, outsize positions, deep in the money LEAPS.

    I've owned CSCO and HPQ, neither of which is outstanding in terms of mergers. I think I sort of remember something about HPQ, something they bought while whatshisname was CEO, oh it's all coming back to me now, Apotheker and Autonomy. Ouch!

    Altera is the real deal.
    Mar 27, 2015. 07:53 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel reportedly in talks to buy Altera; shares soar [View news story]
    Zipper, INTC management understands R&D and IP.

    Altera is a fabless chip shop, capex has nothing to do with anything.

    Altera spends a lot on R&D and they have a lot of IP, some of it around server acceleration, key item here.

    You may be shocked when you see the final merger figure.
    Mar 27, 2015. 07:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Correcting Misinformation Created By SA Contributor Josh Arnold  [View instapost]
    Thanks, I made my feelings known to the editors, maybe they can tighten up policy a bit to get it at least toned down some.
    Mar 27, 2015. 07:03 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Correcting Misinformation Created By SA Contributor Josh Arnold  [View instapost]
    Thanks for your support and encouragement.
    Mar 27, 2015. 07:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Correcting Misinformation Created By SA Contributor Josh Arnold  [View instapost]
    IBM has two things going on with employee stock compensation plans, I showed the larger one which involves issuing new shares.

    The smaller item, for which the accounting is murky, involves the use of treasury shares, with purchases and sales netted out. Not a big item, but I question if the true cost of employee compensation makes its way through the income statement.

    Mostly I tune this stuff out but the headlines on the home page of SA don't show the author, so even if you have figured out you don't want to read his stuff you might click on it by accident. Then once I'm there I see people earnestly commenting on material that is not factual in nature and I become concerned that novices are being led in ways that may cost them money needlessly.

    It's been a bad week on SA which is my hobby during the winter months, a lot of negativity and misinformation. Fortunately with the weather getting better I can spend some time in the woods and on the mountains hiking and enjoy a change of scene.
    Mar 27, 2015. 07:00 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: Correcting Misinformation Created By SA Contributor Josh Arnold  [View instapost]
    I intended to post it as a regular article. SA rejected it on the grounds it was a personal attack.

    The comments can't take spreadsheets which I need to lay everything out nice and clear.

    I suppose I could post a link but that would be self-promotion which I don't do.

    I feel strongly about this and objected to the editors on the article in question, by the means provided, they have sent my material to the author and we'll see if he retracts or further obfuscates.
    Mar 27, 2015. 06:01 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Kellogg May Be Trading At A Long-Term Fair Value [View article]
    No discussion of Project K.

    Management is aware of the growth problem, and they are cutting expenses in order to fund renewed growth. These things take time.

    I guess I'll read the most recent earnings call transcript and guidance for indications on how they're making out.
    Mar 27, 2015. 04:27 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission Conference Call Portends A Double Whammy For Lumber Liquidators [View article]
    Sounds like a good article...
    Mar 26, 2015. 07:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A​n Option Strategy ​For Beaten Offshore Drillers [View article]
    I use vertical call spreads as a substitute for selling puts. The thinking is, your exposure to loss is limited, and if the stock moves against you, you can roll the lower leg down.
    Mar 24, 2015. 09:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A​n Option Strategy ​For Beaten Offshore Drillers [View article]
    DrG,

    I short by buying deep in the money distant expiration puts. Depending on the situation, I may sell an equal amount of out of the money, near expiration puts to fund the time value. It's a diagonal.

    The point is to avoid margin calls and exposure to the well-known propensity of the market to stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent.
    Mar 24, 2015. 08:14 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A​n Option Strategy ​For Beaten Offshore Drillers [View article]
    I never sell naked calls.

    When looking at the returns from selling naked options, it's important to consider the sums necessary to be able to meet one's obligations. What the broker requires is just the tip of the iceberg.

    Selling naked calls, you could wake up one morning, discover that the company is being acquired at a price above your strike, and be handed a large loss from which it will not be possible to escape. Or you could get deer in the headlights syndrome and watch in fascinated horror as the share price goes through the strike and just keeps on going.
    Mar 24, 2015. 04:59 AM | 29 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators Is Evil [View article]
    More importantly, us small fry can't move the market with this kind of attack.
    Mar 23, 2015. 09:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lumber Liquidators Is Evil [View article]
    Don, I looked him up on tipranks.com, he's right more often than he's wrong on direction, and his average profit is presentable.

    I don't like his modus operandi, or Ackman's of which it is the apprentice's copy.

    I make a point of staying far away from anything subject to that kind of tactics, in either direction. I'm able to achieve results that are satisfactory to me without stooping to that level.
    Mar 23, 2015. 03:37 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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