Tom Armistead

Large Caps Could Lead the Market Much Higher

Based on the line of thinking you have applied to the 20 largest S&P stocks, I am long three of them - JNJ, XOM and PG. While mean reversion based on historical averages can't be used in all cases, it tends to be more appropriate with lagre cap/strong brand type companies and very possibly that is where the easy money can be made over the next few years, almost a no-brainer.

A paradigm shift can be a very powerful phenomenon in the investment field: if you catch one you score big, if you miss one you will be severely punished. So it is important to be aware of the possibility.

But paradigm shifts are rare and to call one on the US economy is a big decision. Noting that GDP is now growing slowly, and that corporate profits as a % of GDP is lower than it has been for some time, and also growing, the path of least resistance is to project that somewhere between 3 and 5 years out things will be back the way they were. That will give you 8% a year from where things are now, like clockwork, just like the good old days. If you miss that one you will need to make a mid-life career change.

Netflix, Adobe, and Google Rated Among Top Places to Work

It would have been nice if the author had correlated these ratings to stock performance, something like last year's ratings and this year's performance, to see if employee satisfaction has predictive value.

I notice Macy's, Motorola, Office Depot, WaMu are low ranked, also poor stock performance..

Tech May Be a Wreck, But This Isn't 2001

Good article, I have been getting into some tech lately, attracted by the balance sheets which have a tendancy to be fairly strong. It is reassuring to see some numerical confirmation that it is not sky high like it was at the end of the bubble.

Some articles have suggested that tech never really bottomed after the bubble burst, but maybe now it has.