Seeking Alpha

Tom Armistead's  Instablog

Tom Armistead
Send Message
I'm a well-informed retail investor and post on SA in order to expose my thought process to critical examination and comment from readers. It makes me a better investor. I'm particularly proud of bullish macro articles posted in 2009 and later, in which I presented ideas that encouraged me to... More
My blog:
Tom Armistead's Instablog
View Tom Armistead's Instablogs on:
  • Managing A Diagonal Call Spread
    This is an old trade that illustrates why diagonal spreads can be profitable for long term trades, as a substitute for owning the shares. The format is, the long, deep in the money calls are presented separately from the short, out of the money calls, to illustrate the purpose and profitability of rolling.

    At the time, the company had considerable cash to support the price at the low end, and between that and the volatility it was a good prospect for this type of trade.

    The point is, that simply by rolling back and forth between the 2.5 and 5.0 strikes on the long leg, the premiums received for rolling up, and occasionally out, exceeded the premiums paid to roll down. In effect, I was able to get a non-recourse, notional loan of $2,500 or $5,000, it varied, to invest in owning the shares. Or more accurately, in controlling them. I was paid $501.12 to leave my money on the table.

    There was also income from selling the covered calls, it totalled $275.63. Eventually the stock went through the strike, but that was good news, since the lower leg had a fine profit of $1,116 from the directional move when I closed it. The whole trade had an IRR of 37.53%, over a period of over a year and a half, compared to 13.78% that could have been realized buying and holding the shares over the same time span.

    This works because volatility has a tendancy to increase when the shares decline, and the time value for an option that is close to the money is higher than one that is deep in the money. When the stock goes down far enough, roll down. After it recovers, roll back up. The premiums paid for rolling down from 5.0 to 2.5 were less than the premiums received rolling up and out from 2.5 to 5.0 and forward 6 months in two cases.

    This was kind of a laboratory case, to see how long I could continue the process. I gave it up when the stock went over $7.50 on a run that finally took it over $10.00.

    The stock has been back to the $5-6 area, and I'm working on getting this trade going again.

    Disclosure: I am long HLIT.

    Additional disclosure: Current positions are long HLIT 2.5 calls and short HLIT 5.0 calls.

    Mar 07 6:01 PM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Trimming The Sails

    After giving it some thought last night and this morning, I reduced my positions to raise cash to about 25% of portfolio. Of course, the upward revision on 4th quarter GDP was welcome, and the market is rallying sedately.

    Using a ratio of GDP to S&P 500, based on historical averages the market is getting fairly close to a midpoint. If and when the S&P 500 hits 1,400, from my point of view expected returns going forward are about 5% annualized, not a compelling reason to be in equities.

    If I use an alternative method, relying on the ratio of GDP to corporate profits, a midpoint of 1,600 would be indicated. There is ongoing concern that margins, which are at historical highs, will be coming under pressure. The alternative method gives a higher indication because margins have been so fat lately.

    The portfolio consists almost exclusively of options - diagonal call spreads, long deep in the money LEAPS and short covered calls against them. Computing leverage on a dollar delta basis, I just reduced it from 1.67:1 to 1.36:1. About 1.2:1 would be more appropriate, so I will be looking to reduce exposure further if the market continues to rally.

    The point is, there is less reason to use leverage when returns are expected to be modest, and the risk of giving back gains on a correction increases as the market continues to make new highs.

    Feb 29 10:26 AM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Greece Unable To Pay Reparations

    Germany, in the wake of WWI, was given reparations to pay, very heavy. Efforts to pay it may have precipitated the hyper-inflation of the Weimar Republic.

    In the wake of WWII, the US came up with the Marshall Plan, which had a better outcome.

    Just a thought, but Germany and its allies have won an economic war, with Greece in a Depression and heading into chaos. Maybe something along the lines of the Marchall Plan would be in order, rather than this determined effort to exact their pound of flesh, verging on reparations.

    Feb 15 3:33 PM | Link | 3 Comments
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers


More »

Latest Comments

Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.