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Tom Au, CFA  

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  • Preparing For The Next Market Collapse [View article]
    Market crashes in 2000, 2008, 2016(?)
    Apr 28, 2015. 05:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Drilling For 3-Year, 7.25% Yields, And 5½-Year, 8.82% Yields, With Transocean's Baa3/BBB- Rated US Dollar Bonds [View article]
    Are there any CONVERTIBLE bonds worth noting, for this (and other) oil field services companies?
    Apr 13, 2015. 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are San Francisco Housing Prices Foreshadowing The Next Global Financial Downturn? [View article]
    Dear Mr. Bostrom: What can you tell me about Seattle housing prices? I own a property in Portland, Oregon, and to paraphrase Euclid, two points determine a straight line (with San Francisco being the other point).
    Apr 3, 2015. 05:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do These 3 Graham's Formula Stocks Satisfy Growth And Value? [View article]
    These look like "almost" buys.

    It's just as important to screen (out) the "almost" buys as to screen (in) the actual buys.
    Feb 3, 2015. 10:53 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • I'm Not Buying Starbucks At These Prices [View article]
    Given the growth rate of the dividend, I would be looking to buy SBUX for a 2% yield. That would be a price of $64 based on the current dividend. If I could get comfortable with the idea that the next dividend raise will be to 38 cents a share per quarter, I could go as high as $76.
    Jan 3, 2015. 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Top 10 Stocks For 2015 [View article]
    This group is finance-heavy. That suggests that it will either be a strong success or a strong failure.
    Dec 29, 2014. 09:43 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can DGI Aristocrats Beat The Market? [View article]
    With the exception of Exxon Mobil, all of the stocks were "dividend champions" in 2004 as well. This is about as as good a "blue chip" list as can be found in the United States. They don't call them "blue chips" for nothing.

    The "exception to the rule" (of their outperformance) can be found when the "blue chips" become the (overvalued) Nifty 50, as in the early 1970s, or when e.g. tech stocks are going "wild," as in the late 1990s.
    Dec 26, 2014. 08:46 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can DGI Aristocrats Beat The Market? [View article]
    Your strategy works except for during very "exuberent" periods like 1995-1999. But these periods come once every 30-35 years or so (the next should come in the 2030s), and you don't mind "underperforming" during such periods.
    Dec 26, 2014. 08:12 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel: Why One Of Seeking Alpha's Biggest Bulls Sold His Shares [View article]
    Intel was a buy when the yield was close to 4%, and the closer the yield gets to 2%, the more of a sell it becomes.
    Dec 23, 2014. 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Valued As Though New Technologies Will Bust, But I Disagree [View article]
    Here is a paper from the IBM Systems Journal entitled "The Utility Business Model and the Future of Computing Services."
    Apr 24, 2014. 03:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retiree Study: Dividend Aristocrats; What's Missing [View article]
    Yes, that's right. I meant David Fish's ccc list.
    Mar 26, 2014. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retiree Study: Dividend Aristocrats; What's Missing [View article]
    Dividend stocks have some similarity to bonds, so it doesn't make sense to have them "replace" only the S&P 500 in the 60 percent devoted to stocks. A better comparison would compare a portfolio of 100 percent Dividend Aristocrats with a 60-40 blend of S&P 500 and bonds. Thus, the increases on the slower grower dividend stocks, while less than the rate of inflation, would still beat bonds (other than TIPs.

    For "newer" stocks than the dividend aristocrats, there's Chuck Carnevale's excellent CCC list. Maybe people should use that instead.

    And the lack of tech stocks is not something that dividend collecting retirees normally worry about; they're willing to sacrifice some of that upside for less volatility, almost by definition.
    Mar 25, 2014. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett's Latest Letter [View article]
    Historically, five years has been long enough to encompass a whole market cycle. But "whole market cycles" have gotten longer in the past 50 years. Now, maybe it takes six (or more) years to encompass a "whole market cycle."
    Mar 20, 2014. 02:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Mr. Stiritz Play Texas Hold 'Em? [View article]
    "Pocket rockets" win over 80 percent of the time only when two handed. If there are ten players, it wins only 34 percent of the time, that's still 3.4 times the "statistical" 10 percent.
    Mar 12, 2014. 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Death Of The Buy And Hold Investor [View article]
    If the average investor is forced out of the market, it could be the beginning of a (financial) "new feudalism."
    Mar 5, 2014. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment