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Tom Au, CFA  

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  • Retiree Study: Dividend Aristocrats; What's Missing [View article]
    Yes, that's right. I meant David Fish's ccc list.
    Mar 26, 2014. 10:10 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Retiree Study: Dividend Aristocrats; What's Missing [View article]
    Dividend stocks have some similarity to bonds, so it doesn't make sense to have them "replace" only the S&P 500 in the 60 percent devoted to stocks. A better comparison would compare a portfolio of 100 percent Dividend Aristocrats with a 60-40 blend of S&P 500 and bonds. Thus, the increases on the slower grower dividend stocks, while less than the rate of inflation, would still beat bonds (other than TIPs.

    For "newer" stocks than the dividend aristocrats, there's Chuck Carnevale's excellent CCC list. Maybe people should use that instead.

    And the lack of tech stocks is not something that dividend collecting retirees normally worry about; they're willing to sacrifice some of that upside for less volatility, almost by definition.
    Mar 25, 2014. 10:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett's Latest Letter [View article]
    Historically, five years has been long enough to encompass a whole market cycle. But "whole market cycles" have gotten longer in the past 50 years. Now, maybe it takes six (or more) years to encompass a "whole market cycle."
    Mar 20, 2014. 02:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Does Mr. Stiritz Play Texas Hold 'Em? [View article]
    "Pocket rockets" win over 80 percent of the time only when two handed. If there are ten players, it wins only 34 percent of the time, that's still 3.4 times the "statistical" 10 percent.
    Mar 12, 2014. 01:54 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Death Of The Buy And Hold Investor [View article]
    If the average investor is forced out of the market, it could be the beginning of a (financial) "new feudalism."
    Mar 5, 2014. 03:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks For 2014: Are Dividend Paying Cyclical Stocks Acceptable Investments For Retirement Portfolios? - Part 6 [View article]
    CAT and DE are cyclical, but they've been around since the early 20th century. And they've averaged something like 12% annual growth for almost 100 years, so they can be considered something of "growth," albeit cyclical, stocks.
    Feb 26, 2014. 09:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife CEO Doth Protest Too Much [View article]
    The end of Enron was foreshadowed when CEO Jeff Skilling used a swear word on a conference call.
    Feb 21, 2014. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks For 2014: High-Yield And Fairly Valued Dividend Stocks For High Current Income - Part 5 [View article]
    Bonds and stocks share certain risks with regard to long "duration." Cash does not share these risks because it is short term, and is therefore a better diversifier for stocks than bonds are.
    Feb 17, 2014. 04:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Banks And China: 'Interesting Times' Are Coming [View article]
    This reminds me of the impact that the Credit Anstalt Bank of Austria (Germany's largest offshore bank) had on the global economy in 1931.
    Feb 14, 2014. 02:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Herbalife, USANA touched by Nu Skin investigation [View news story]
    China: That's the country that will determine the fate of the U.S. MLM's. Not some country like Belgium.
    Jan 16, 2014. 11:09 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Scary Charts Warning Of The Next Financial Crisis [View article]
    Genghis Khan was never Chinese! He was Mongolian.
    Jan 6, 2014. 10:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ModernGraham Valuation Of Visa [View article]
    Visa is not a "new company." But it is a new STOCK. Which is why it doesn't pass traditional Graham tests.
    Nov 21, 2013. 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 1959: The Year Economics Changed And Nobody Noticed [View article]
    $521.68 vs. $381.17. Bill Gross of Pimco calculated the average annual total investment return on the Dow as 0.6% "real" (after inflation) in the 20th century, meaning that most of your real total return came from dividends.
    Nov 19, 2013. 12:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lonely JCP bull sees +10% comp sales growth in Q4 [View news story]
    Is that the Gilford Securities that hired (short-seller) James Chanos over 30 years ago?

    That would be the ultimate irony.
    Nov 13, 2013. 01:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can You Go On Holiday 10 Months A Year And Beat The Indexes? [View article]
    The last time I was a portfolio manager, I generated most of my outperformance in two months of a year.

    But I never knew in advance which two months.

    So I had to "stick around" for all twelve.
    Nov 13, 2013. 10:52 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment