"Someday we'll find it, the rainbow connection, The lovers, the dreamers and me."
(An American song).
On Jun 12 03:08 PM Teutonic Knight wrote:
> These sums of money like the $14T that we thought that were there > but really weren't there in the first place. They belonged to the > league of the mirages and rainbows in the skies. > > For a worldwide global number including mainly Europe and the Far > East, etc., I would multiply it with a factor of 3 (just out my German > head) like $14T x 3 = $42T. > > Quite a sum to be reckoned with. > > Question: What is the effect of this, and the associated mad printings?
Reforming Corporate Board Structure: Why Barney Frank Is Right [View article]
Dear Yellow Hoard:
Well put.
I made the point in one of my instablogs that the Chairman of the Board ought to be the "Chief Stockholder's representative." As such, s/he should be different from the CEO, the Chief Management Representative.
On Jun 12 09:11 AM yellowhoard wrote:
> The board of directors of any company should be the praetorian guard > on behalf of the shareholders. > > Mutual funds should take a more active role nominating board members > that will watch the store. > > That said, I think Frank is a baffoon. His constituency must be extraordinarily > addled to continue sending him back to Washington where he smashes, > breaks and loots his way through our financial institutions.
Stocks Undervalued in Current Economic Environment [View article]
Dear Prudent Investor:
You hit the nail on the head.
Stocks are "undervalued" by post Persian Gulf War standards (that was the defining political-economic event).
But they are expensive by pre Persian Gulf War metrics. those are the ones I use.
On Jun 11 07:57 AM prudentinvestor wrote:
> Your graphs begin in 1994, and current valuations appear low relative > to 1995-2007. So we have to ask whether current valuations are fundamentally > low, making stocks a bargain; or whether valuations during the era > of the Great Bubbles were unsustainably high, and all that's happened > is a natural implosion of a great bubble.
Improved Stock Market Returns Following Poor Returning Decades [View article]
A lot of the former overvaluation has been corrected, so what used to look like 0% returns (ten years forward), now look to offer high single digit (7%-8%) average annual returns.
It's probably true that China and Japan are less "innovative" than the Americans.
But that also means being less innovative in the "irresponsible" sense--e.g., with financial products.
On Jun 12 10:33 AM Teutonic Knight wrote:
> Bell-Northern Research (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), the > once fledging research arm of Nortel in the 1970's and 80's was touted > as one of the world's most innovative hotbeds. BNR was noted for > its free-roaming arms-length management style to fostering innovation. > However, BNR had gone into sunset after reaching its zenith, and > now even NT is in BK. > > The point I am getting across is that while innovation is the necessary > ingredient for success, it is hardly the sufficient. It takes know-how, > yes, but accumen in management, and luck to aggressively productize > to marketing and sustaining that lead. > > Some say that the Japanese and the Chinese are not as innovative > minded (perhpas culturally?). How would one observe in this regard > about the Japanese auto sector these days? > > Production has now become an emerging key factor, and for some situations, > I dare say, is even more crucial than innovation per se.
A Monetary Policy Comparison: 1929-30 to 2008-9 [View article]
Monetary policy is the main difference between now and the early 1930s. They hope to avoid another Depression because they believe that monetary policy (and not weaknesses in the real economy) was at fault in the earlier period. Lots of luck.
Higher Chinese Iron Ore Imports Are Not Necessarily an Increase in Demand [View article]
Right on, Freya. The Chinese are not above predatory trading.
On Jun 11 11:47 AM Freya wrote:
> Iron ore imports definitely do not mean an increase in Chinese demand, > but at the same time, Iron ore imports mean less supply for everyone > else.
Right on. I made a similar point in my June 6th instablog about 5 "continental" sized countries: Brazil, Russia, India, China--and the United States. "Europe" could be the sixth, but only if united, not individually.
Caterpillar: The Strong Will Get Stronger [View article]
I am a Graham and Dodd investor, and I am also proud to own this stock (bought at 31) for a doubling (or more).
On Jun 11 01:57 AM Moon Kil Woong wrote:
> Thanks for the post. I have been a holder and fan of this stock. > It is one of the few stocks that has a bright long term future in > a traditional area. It is not overly hyped. It's valuation seems > fair. It is top of its class. Recent developments in its industry > only encompass some benefits from bio-fuels and a rise in food commodities. > > > All in all, a stock Graham types value investors would be proud holding > at this price. It is true sales will turn around later but when it > does you will probably have missed the boat on its ride back to the > $60-70 range.
10% unemployment, lower home values, limited credit and shrinking retirement funds will prompt Americans to save, thwarting stimulus efforts, a Bloomberg survey of economists predicts. [View news story]
Geehrter TK:
"Becoming a conserving and savings society." More like the one my German nanny taught me about as a child.
Hochachtungsvoll
On Jun 10 08:27 PM Teutonic Knight wrote:
> We are finally on our way to becoming a conserving and saving-conscous > country. Isn't this a silver lining in the clouds?
Congress Seems Intent on Bringing the Housing Bubble Back [View article]
Dear Market Crash:
My (Wiley, 2004) book, "A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing" called the 2008 Crash (and called for a "second leg"). Would you consider becoming a follower?
I would consider becoming a follower of yours, but first you have to write something!
On Jun 11 09:26 AM MARKET CRASH-AUGUST 2009 wrote:
America's $8-14T poorer... and counting. [View news story]
The lovers, the dreamers and me."
(An American song).
On Jun 12 03:08 PM Teutonic Knight wrote:
> These sums of money like the $14T that we thought that were there
> but really weren't there in the first place. They belonged to the
> league of the mirages and rainbows in the skies.
>
> For a worldwide global number including mainly Europe and the Far
> East, etc., I would multiply it with a factor of 3 (just out my German
> head) like $14T x 3 = $42T.
>
> Quite a sum to be reckoned with.
>
> Question: What is the effect of this, and the associated mad printings?
Reforming Corporate Board Structure: Why Barney Frank Is Right [View article]
Well put.
I made the point in one of my instablogs that the Chairman of the Board ought to be the "Chief Stockholder's representative." As such, s/he should be different from the CEO, the Chief Management Representative.
On Jun 12 09:11 AM yellowhoard wrote:
> The board of directors of any company should be the praetorian guard
> on behalf of the shareholders.
>
> Mutual funds should take a more active role nominating board members
> that will watch the store.
>
> That said, I think Frank is a baffoon. His constituency must be extraordinarily
> addled to continue sending him back to Washington where he smashes,
> breaks and loots his way through our financial institutions.
BlackRock Cuts $13.5 Billion Deal to Swallow Barclays Global Investors [View article]
Stocks Undervalued in Current Economic Environment [View article]
You hit the nail on the head.
Stocks are "undervalued" by post Persian Gulf War standards (that was the defining political-economic event).
But they are expensive by pre Persian Gulf War metrics. those are the ones I use.
On Jun 11 07:57 AM prudentinvestor wrote:
> Your graphs begin in 1994, and current valuations appear low relative
> to 1995-2007. So we have to ask whether current valuations are fundamentally
> low, making stocks a bargain; or whether valuations during the era
> of the Great Bubbles were unsustainably high, and all that's happened
> is a natural implosion of a great bubble.
Improved Stock Market Returns Following Poor Returning Decades [View article]
A Look at Target's Dividend Increase [View article]
The failed promise of innovation: There's growing evidence that an innovation shortfall may have contributed to today's financial crisis. [View news story]
It's probably true that China and Japan are less "innovative" than the Americans.
But that also means being less innovative in the "irresponsible" sense--e.g., with financial products.
On Jun 12 10:33 AM Teutonic Knight wrote:
> Bell-Northern Research (seekingalpha.com/symbo...), the
> once fledging research arm of Nortel in the 1970's and 80's was touted
> as one of the world's most innovative hotbeds. BNR was noted for
> its free-roaming arms-length management style to fostering innovation.
> However, BNR had gone into sunset after reaching its zenith, and
> now even NT is in BK.
>
> The point I am getting across is that while innovation is the necessary
> ingredient for success, it is hardly the sufficient. It takes know-how,
> yes, but accumen in management, and luck to aggressively productize
> to marketing and sustaining that lead.
>
> Some say that the Japanese and the Chinese are not as innovative
> minded (perhpas culturally?). How would one observe in this regard
> about the Japanese auto sector these days?
>
> Production has now become an emerging key factor, and for some situations,
> I dare say, is even more crucial than innovation per se.
A Monetary Policy Comparison: 1929-30 to 2008-9 [View article]
So What's a Year Worth? Keeping Medicare and Social Security Afloat [View article]
And I'm a fan of yours on thestreet.com as well.
Higher Chinese Iron Ore Imports Are Not Necessarily an Increase in Demand [View article]
On Jun 11 11:47 AM Freya wrote:
> Iron ore imports definitely do not mean an increase in Chinese demand,
> but at the same time, Iron ore imports mean less supply for everyone
> else.
Goldman Forecasts China Ascendancy [View article]
Caterpillar: The Strong Will Get Stronger [View article]
On Jun 11 01:57 AM Moon Kil Woong wrote:
> Thanks for the post. I have been a holder and fan of this stock.
> It is one of the few stocks that has a bright long term future in
> a traditional area. It is not overly hyped. It's valuation seems
> fair. It is top of its class. Recent developments in its industry
> only encompass some benefits from bio-fuels and a rise in food commodities.
>
>
> All in all, a stock Graham types value investors would be proud holding
> at this price. It is true sales will turn around later but when it
> does you will probably have missed the boat on its ride back to the
> $60-70 range.
10% unemployment, lower home values, limited credit and shrinking retirement funds will prompt Americans to save, thwarting stimulus efforts, a Bloomberg survey of economists predicts. [View news story]
"Becoming a conserving and savings society." More like the one my German nanny taught me about as a child.
Hochachtungsvoll
On Jun 10 08:27 PM Teutonic Knight wrote:
> We are finally on our way to becoming a conserving and saving-conscous
> country. Isn't this a silver lining in the clouds?
Congress Seems Intent on Bringing the Housing Bubble Back [View article]
My (Wiley, 2004) book, "A Modern Approach to Graham and Dodd Investing" called the 2008 Crash (and called for a "second leg"). Would you consider becoming a follower?
I would consider becoming a follower of yours, but first you have to write something!
On Jun 11 09:26 AM MARKET CRASH-AUGUST 2009 wrote:
> .
U.S. Mortgage Applications Collapse, while Propaganda Soars [View instapost]