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Tom Copeland
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Tom Copeland is co-founder and partner Bullworthy, LLC, the world's first digital investor and press relations firm with a congruent and disciplined focus on web development, content distribution, facilitating web 2.0 communications and traditional media relations. Tom's been developing dynamic,... More
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Bullworthy, LLC
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Becoming the Bull
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  • The Big Pop – Understanding and Avoiding Bubbles In 2008’s Wake
    Understanding the chemistry that fuels stock market bubbles is a difficult and complex study that even risk aversion professionals have a hard time grasping. So I wondered, is there any chance that we as first-time or even some of the seasoned retail investors can anticipate or predict, with even the most modest certainty, when and how these investment and asset bubbles will pop in the future?

    I think the answer is no, not really. I do, however, believe that with just a little diligent effort in analyzing the patterns of previous bubbles, perhaps we can at least avoid them. Let’s face it; bubbles not only exist and contributed almost first-handedly to the Great Recession and the financial crisis of 2008, but the phenomenon will continue and is almost guaranteed to happen again – maybe even sooner rather than later.

    Let’s start by looking at some of the U.S. history’s biggest pops and use the knowledge and lessons learned in applying them to our hunt for today’s stock market or asset bubble.

    Two bubbles for the price of one
    Unquestionably, the most devastating, and perhaps until recently the most infamous stock market crash of all time came between the months of September and November of 1929, when the DOW nose-dived from roughly 380 to 200 points, cleaning slicing off about 50%.

     But what’s “conveniently forgotten”, says Michael Bordo, Professor of Economics, and Director at the Center for Monetary and Financial History, Rutgers University, in a presentation called the CFR Symposium on a Second Look at the Great Depression and the New Deal “is that over the next several months, from early November 1929 until sometime in the middle of April 1930, the Dow Jones average went up almost to 300 points again”.

    That seems fine and dandy, until the newly created U.S. Federal Reserve decided to reel itself off the god standard while the rest of the public was still knee-deep in a love affair with the precious metal. The result, many scholars and economists who study the events will argue was a world-wide boom in demand and squeeze in supply for gold, bank illiquidity, and the Great Depression, during which the Dow Jones sank back down to 42 points by July of 1932.

    One lesson I would like to take away from here is that before, during, and after the catastrophic financial events of the 30’s, gold has been widely considered a safe, hard asset to invest in during economic crisis.

    Please continue reading this article on Bullworthy.com by clicking here.



    Disclosure: none
    Sep 27 10:56 AM | Link | Comment!
  • A Man Who Loves His Beer – An Interview with Terry Michelson of Craft Brewers Alliance

    As I hung up the phone, I couldn’t help the immediate urge to pop the cap off a Widmer Hefeweisen and kick my feet upon this desk, even though my more responsible judgment was bitterly convincing (it’s mid-afternoon on a Thursday).

    What the hell- I’m the only one here in my office anyway, and besides, it was time to taste the experience-in-the-bottle that is Craft Brewers Alliance.

    I had the privilege of speaking at great length with the top executive of a company who is on the forefront of changing consumer tastes; with absolutely no guarantees for the future other than that people obviously love the product. I couldn’t help but wonder what that would be like, so I asked. What I found was that this man absolutely loved beer.

    But he doesn’t love just any beer; just his. Terry Michaelson is the chief executive officer of Craft Brewers Alliance, a craft brewer that makes, markets, and distributes craft beer under the labels Widmer Brothers Brewing, Redhook Ale Brewery, Goose Island Beer Company, and the most recent addition that Terry and his team have been giddy over, the Kona Brewing Company.

    Craft also owns and operates a small pub-brewery in Portland, Oregon, and sells a few of their more prominent beers nationally to liquor stores, supermarkets, pubs, and more;  the company’s headquarters are also located in Portland, a city known for being creative and edgy, a fitting environment for this small brewer.

    But Terry and I’s conversation really wasn’t about the history of the company, and we didn’t spend a whole lot of time discussing the capital liquidity of the company’s floated shares or the intrinsic value that could lie beneath. We didn’t talk about enterprise values compared to revenues, and we didn’t make any attempts to dissect or analyze the stock’s recent movements using Fibonacci Retracements. We talked about beer.

    Let’s start with the merger. In early August, Craft announced it would be buying Kona Brewing Co., based in Hawaii and recognized as one of the fastest growing craft breweries in the last 5 years, for just under $14 million in cash and stock.

    The merger was the unanticipated result of a relationship that had been developing and growing for over 9 years between the two companies, and so it made sense, Terry said, to bring the companies together and allow Craft and Kona to aggressively grow their brands and bring more value the now much larger table.

    Mattson Davis will stay on as the chief executive of Kona, further solidifying a bond that was already pretty strong. Davis was quoted in the original early August press release as saying, “we’re getting married, so to speak”.

    In the second quarter of 2010, Craft reported some pretty decent numbers and developments in addition to the announcement of the merger. The company successfully modified an existing credit facility to more favorable rates and terms, indicating the bank clearly demonstrates confidence in Craft’s business going forward.

    Operating profit was up for the quarter by $.4 million, from $2.5 million in the same period last year to $2.9 million for the second quarter 2010. Terry mentions as Craft releases earnings there has been a trend of positive reactions in the marketplace with these earnings, released August 13th, being no exception.

    Perhaps it’s a result of the merger and the anticipated jump in production and revenue that will be coming down the line, or perhaps it’s the fact that investors are finally waking up to the fact that craft beer is in higher demand than ever – either way, the company’s stock has been hitting all-time highs.

    Every publication from theStreet.com to Investor’s Business Daily has been all over Craft since the stock price starting a steady climb in May 2010 from $3.41 a share on average trading volume of about 17k. Last Friday, September 10th, the shares closed at $8.10 a share with a volume of over 300k.

    I speculated to Terry that I think investors always follow consumers, and consumers started changing their tastes a while ago. I thought the ubiquitous and burnt out, water-flavored major beer brands are out and sexy, creative, small craft labels are wrestling their way into drinker’s hands to take advantage of those changing consumer tastes.

    Terry agreed, saying “people are seeing the progress and they’re seeing our unique strengths. More and more people are aware of it, and it’s causing a reaction in the marketplace. This is a segment that is fairly new that has tremendous upside. Investors are looking at that, and we’re very excited. Those investors are just looking for something to invest in that they understand and can connect to.”

    That makes sense, I thought. After all, what better facilitator of connections is there than a tasty and tall, cold beer? If investors can relate to the product and relate to the business model, they can and will believe in the company itself, and potentially make a lot of money when the product catches on to the mainstream - just look at Sam Adams.

    TC: Tell me a little about your marketing plans and efforts. How is your model distinct from the big boys who have exorbitant million-dollar advertising budgets?
    TM: For us, this is about creating personal connections and there is a personal approach than what a big brewer would typically do, so we want to build broad awareness of our brands. If we can get people to hear our story and sample our beer, then we’re successful.  
    We still focus on some traditional things like print and radio, and are involved in sponsorships and festivals. We are also focused on marketing over the internet with blogs and Facebook and finding places where people are going to spend the time to find out about the brands. We spend only in markets where we think the brands belong to create those long-term connections.
    TC: I heard you touch in there on social media marketing. Has that avenue become valuable for your brands?
    TM: Definitely, the social media marketing is a big effort for us, because we can get to the consumer and surprise them in a positive way. People want to get to into these brands and understand their story, and then participate with them. They can drink craft beer because it makes them feel good and it’s affordable.
    TC: Sounds to me like your company is on the forward edge of two very new and untested frontiers: the craft brewing industry and social media marketing. What does that feel like?
    TM: As we look at it, there’s two ways we see that: one, it’s certainly a challenge. We’re paving new paths in terms of how things are done but we also see that as mostly a tremendous opportunity because it allows us to create new experiences for consumers, because overall, they are looking for something fun and something that makes them feel better in their lives. It’s a tremendous opportunity for growth. The challenge isn’t so much creating the business; the business is there, and it’s strong. It’s more how do we make certain we maximize those opportunities because we don’t just want a nice business, we want a great business.
    TC: According to OregonLive.com, “Widmer produced 286,000 barrels of beer in 2009 and 184,000 barrels of Redhook. Adding Kona’s production puts the company at 583,000 barrels, or more than 18 million gallons”. Is that a fair assumption going into 2011?
    TM:  Yeah, that’s a fair assumption.
    TC: How does that level of expansion change the underlying value of CBA?
    TM: What it changes for us is that it continues to give us the opportunity to put more people in the marketplace to sell the brands and help people find our brands. It helps us put more dollars in the marketplace to make create those all-important connections. The other thing it does is continue to make us more important to the retailer because the key to all of this is getting some distribution so the consumer can actually have a chance to find the beer and try it. We’re one of the larger craft brewers in the country, certainly in the top 2 or 3, and that’s important because that’s retailers are looking at for.
    TC: Is there a defined line between a craft brewer and a typical brewer, and if so, as CBA grows, how close are you getting to crossing that line and losing the “craft stripes”, so to speak?
    TM: We’re not there. I think it’s changed where there it’s no longer about a volume level anymore. It’s more about subjective valuations – what type of beer is it, what’s the brand all about, and where does it come from? Retailers are looking at the story behind the beer, and aren’t so much worried about the volume to determine whether or not a beer is craft. It’s about the quality and authenticity of the source.
    It’s the segment growing up – look at Kurt Widner, he was a home brewer and was passionate about doing what he loved and having a business. He used to talk about, if I could just get 10 accounts, I’ve got a good business, because in the beginning of this, that’s what people were thinking. Now that the expectations have changed for the consumer, they want to be able to find it and experience it whether it’s on premise or off-premise.  It’s more about the experience and less about how big you are.
    TC: So we’re talking about creating an identity.
    TM: You’re exactly right. People are excited about having craft beer in their life. It provides them with a unique environment and experience. The pioneers of the industry – the Jim Kochs and Ken Grossmans of Sierra Nevada and Kurt Widmer – those people were really at the forefront and really risked a lot when they were starting their companies. I think the consumer can really connect to that kind of passion those people have behind their beers, and because they can relate, they love the drinking experience.
    TC: Tell us about your relationship with Anheuser Busch.
    TM: We have a distribution agreement with AB, because this being a three-tiered industry, the only way to get to market is through a distributor. The AB has traditionally been the strongest with the most market share and has high standards in how they deliver and care for the beer. That is a strong component of our business.
    TC: AB owns a sizable, albeit minority stake in CBA. Care to comment on the buyout rumors that are flying out there?
    TM: What I can tell you is that they are just rumors. We’re very dedicated to continue being an independent company and growing our business. That the plan at this point.
    TC: How do you think those rumors came about? They sort of exploded all over the net during August.
    TM: It’s hard to tell. I think people look at the changes in the business. We had a modification to our agreement with AB, so that could be a driver. Quite frankly, I think people just start throwing darts at the wall hoping it hits something, because there wasn’t anything specific that we could point to that would lead people to believe that.
    TC: What’s your favorite beer?
    TM: (Laughing) that’s an interesting one because it’s almost like asking which one is your favorite kid. I’m a fan of the Widmer Drifter, the pale ale. It has a really unique hop profile. I loved our summer seasonal red pilsner under the Rope Swing brand, it’s a great beer. Goose Island has some really unique reserve line beers; the Belgian-style Metilda is another one I really like. I think Kona Longboard is just a great Craft Lager. It’s really easy to drink and has a nice flavor…

    Terry drifts off for a few minutes rattling off more beers he and his teams have created. I got the feeling his face was lighting up on the other end of the phone and that this was undoubtedly a man who truly loved his beer. He went on to chat about how he makes it down to floor all the time to check out what new brews the crew is working on.

    We wrapped it up. I thanked him for taking the time to talk beer with me, and mentioned how interesting it was to interview a CEO that was literally brimming with delight about his brands. One of the last things he said: “That’s great, I really appreciate that Tom. Thanks for your interest and I always have a good time talking about beer and our company”, as if I couldn’t tell. 

    Author Signature: Tom Copeland is the founder and author of Bullworthy.com, a financial blog for first-time investors and web content development and management company based in West Palm Beach, Florida.



    Disclosure: None
    Sep 13 1:04 PM | Link | Comment!
  • Google Doodles and the Investors Behind Them
     Google has long been known to beloved users and to this writer as pretty much the only search engine with personality, to internet and tech speculators as a business and industry innovator, and to early stock investors as an absolutely boon for their retirement accounts. Probing all 3 could give us some insight into the big G’s think tank and whatever the big announcement the company is expected to release today at the Museum of Modern Art in San Francisco, and could result in a nice bump in the stock price.
     
    You’ve undoubtedly seen and enjoyed the “Google Doodles” on holidays, which refer to the cute and commemorative animations that appear on Google’s homepage just above the search box periodically. Whether it be Santa on a sled overtop a home with the Christmas lights spelling out the company’s name, or more recently, their April Fool’s joke logos (this year Google “announced” on July 1st they would be switching names with Topeka, Kansas, citing, “Topeka voted to bring super-fast broadband to the residents of the Capital city through a program Google has launched; Google was flattered and wanted to return a nice gesture. Topeka, in return, would rename themselves Google, Kansas”), Google loves to display those doodles.
     
    The Google Doodles are at it again, but with no specific holiday or event to attribute the new doodles to, Internet-wide speculation has been sparked and the rumors are flying. You may have noticed yesterday on the Google homepage the flash animation above the search box of little colored balls that would fly in every direction when a mouse barreled through them, only to settle into the familiar Google logo we’re used to on boring and uneventful days.
     
    The Google logo is all grey upon first impression. Start typing, however, and the letters begin to colorize. So, why all the effort?
     
    Today, Google is taking over the Museum of Modern Art in San Francisco for a search event led by some of the company’s top executives and engineers. The event was announced last Friday, and via a Twitter message, Google hinted the company has an announcement to make, but it’s really anyone’s guess.
     
    It’s obvious to me that Google has some feature or product or update they will be rolling out, and the doodles and Twitter messages is their way of saying “it’s something big”. The animations have one thing in common – an example of how the interface and components of a web page can be manipulated without actually clicking anything. While that may be old technology (Adobe pioneered Flash years ago), it’s technology that Google has never particularly embraced.
     
    We’ll simply just have to wait and see what Google says at the Museum of Modern Art later today. In the meantime, it’s worth noting what a powerful and disruptive company Google has been since its 1998 launch and subsequent initial public offering a year later. The company’s stock price has multiplied five-fold in just over 10 years, a nearly unheard of feat of impressive growth. 
     
    Early this year, Google also changed the corporate landscape not just for American companies but for an entire overseas country, and everyone who watched the debacle. The company made a bold and public exit from China, with CEO Eric Schmidt saying in a Newsweek article, “this isn’t a business decision. This was a responsibility decision”, after a hacker attack on human rights activist’s private Gmail accounts was eventually traced to a Chinese University. The move says a lot about how company balances and behaves between the interest of its own principles and of their stockholders. Moving out of China is a terrible move from a business standpoint – they stand to lose 17% of their market share to Chinese rival search engine Baidu, who owns nearly 70% of the market share, in what is considered by some as the largest market in the world.
     
    But from a corporate responsibility and ethics standpoint, it’s an absolute triumph. On one of the last pages in its IPO, Google wrote a clause disclaiming that the company may not always act in the interests of the stockholders; that there may come a time when it will make decisions based on its character morals and standards for doing business. To decision to pull out of China and stand up for what the company believes in is a breath of fresh air in our scandal-plagues era or corporate irresponsibility.
     
    Shares of Google are currently trading up just a fraction of a percent, but if the weight of the announcement today is powerful enough to move the market, intuition suggest it will move higher. I wouldn’t say the price of Google’s share is inflated, and it’s too early to assume the news of today’s announcement is built into the price. In the end, regardless of the announcement and whether or not the stock moves today, there’s a lot to be proud of as a Google shareholder.


    Disclosure: None
    Tags: GOOG
    Sep 08 9:57 AM | Link | Comment!
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