Seeking Alpha

Tom Dorsey

 
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  • Atlas Resource Partners Oversold With Monthly Distribution Yielding 27%
    Tue, Jan. 27 ARP 20 Comments

    Summary

    • Atlas Resource Partners derives 75% of income from Natural Gas, to support the profit margin and monthly distribution payments.
    • Atlas Resource has multiple contracts on-going that hedge against the lower prices. Eventually, lower prices will catch up with their oil contracts, but gas prices are holding strong.
    • Recommend buy and hold for the monthly distribution payouts and stock price appreciation.
  • Buy Western Asset Mortgage Capital Now As The Entry Point Is Low
    Fri, Jan. 23 WMC 17 Comments

    Summary

    • WMC stock price cycle over 90 days linked to the ex-dividend date.
    • 2 years of analysis and the last 2 quarters numbers validate the earnings potential.
    • Over 40% yield return when you buy the low and sell the high.
  • Market Over Sells Non-E&P Oil Companies
    Wed, Jan. 21 CVRR, NTI, NVGS 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Midstream and refineries have seen their stock price drop from investor sell off, not from loss of value.
    • Costs and profit margins still present for non-E&P companies.
    • Expect higher yields with lower unit prices and higher profit margins.
  • American Capital Agency Stock Price Remains Steady With Excellent Dividend Yield
    Tue, Jan. 20 AGNC 10 Comments

    Summary

    • Dividend has remained constant at $0.22 per share, with a yield of over 12%.
    • The stock price has remained constant with the market’s volatility.
    • When interest rates do rise, there is an opportunity for higher profit margins.
  • Fannie And Freddie At Year's Beginning And The Future
    Tue, Jan. 6 FNMA, FMCC 17 Comments

    Summary

    • U.S. District Court decision was only an action toward resolution in 2014.
    • FHFA directed F&F to begin refunding the National Affordable Housing Trust Fund.
    • 2015 will see Republicans control both Houses, but still differ with the Administration.
    • Recommendation: Put your money to work in the market now.
  • Western Asset Mortgage Capital: Dividend Coming From Best-In-Class mREIT
    Dec. 18, 2014 WMC 12 Comments

    Summary

    • Dividend over last 4 quarters yielded 29%, expect the dividend this quarter plus catch-up over $1.00.
    • Portfolio is funded for interest rates to rise in 2015. 27% of fund positioned to cushion the affect of the rate increase.
    • The company is leverage at 7.9 to 1, which is safely within norms to protect the portfolio.
  • 3 Highly Profitable MLP Refineries That Are Sound Investments
    Dec. 15, 2014 ALDW, NTI, CVRR 18 Comments

    Summary

    • The current drop in the price of crude oil will not affect refinery operations and could increase demand due to consumers driving more.
    • All three MLPs are operating at or near full production which translates into profitable quarters.
    • All 3 MLPs are paying double digit distributions each quarter.
  • Proof ARMOUR Residential REIT Is A Positive Investment
    Dec. 12, 2014 ARR 25 Comments

    Summary

    • Combined stock price and dividend payouts, the stock is increased value 8.25% this year.
    • Fourth quarter’s financial report should reflect similar profits, but we do not expect any catch-up dividend this year.
    • 2015 will be different, and after the interest rate hikes, should be more profitable.
  • Breaking Down The Quarterly Report Of Armour Residential REIT
    Nov. 2, 2014 ARR 11 Comments

    Summary

    • Company's own large hedge fund to offset interest rate hike dragging profitability.
    • Armour reported taxable income of $49 million, $0.13 per share, for the quarter.
    • Company’s $15.5 billion investment portfolio with leverage ratio at 8.42 to 1.
  • Fed's Protective Posture Of U.S. Economy Is A Plus For REITs
    Oct. 30, 2014 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Interest rates will go up in the future, but we do not see rates climbing anytime soon.
    • European and Chinese economies slowing world growth.
    • Earliest major rate increase is likely 2017.
  • American Capital Now A Cash Cow As A Monthly Dividend Payer
    Oct. 8, 2014 AGNC 27 Comments

    Summary

    • Monthly dividends to begin October; pay in November.
    • Other successful REITs paved way for double-digit monthly dividends.
    • Stock price likely to appreciate over next 30 days due to the steady dividends.
    • Don’t fret – several good quarterly REITs still available.
  • Fannie And Freddie: If It Smells Like A Tax
    Oct. 3, 2014 FNMA, FMCC 14 Comments

    Summary

    • Court ruling upholds FHFA’s authority from Congress.
    • Quarterly dividends continue to pay to the U.S. Treasury.
    • Future is long road with many legal battles before any outcome is known.
  • CVR Refining Stock Price Down With Opportunity For Appreciation, Growth And Distribution
    Oct. 1, 2014 CVRR 14 Comments

    Summary

    • CVRR stock price expected to climb over 10% next quarter.
    • Both refineries at full production, 4th quarter will be profitable.
    • Various crudes available via Keystone and Spearhead pipelines.
    • Anticipate the distribution to return near One Dollar in fourth quarter, 2014.
  • Yield Is Over 18%, Western Asset Mortgage Capital Increased The Dividend
    Sep. 24, 2014 WMC 21 Comments

    Summary

    • Third Quarter dividend increased from $0.67 to $0.70.
    • 2nd Quarter’s financials state earnings of $1.00 per share, 3rd quarter to be release October/November. Opportunity for supplemental dividend payout.
    • Take the dividend of 18% in cash, or reinvest the dividends.
    • Investors have until October 1, 2014 to buy the stock prior to the ex-dividend date.
  • Five Oaks Investment Extends Monthly Dividend For 4th Quarter With Near 14% Yield
    Sep. 22, 2014 OAKS 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Five Oaks to pay $0.125 dividend each month in fourth quarter.
    • Earnings first two quarters higher than paid dividends.
    • Look for catch-up dividend for year-end.
    • Long-term potential is positive after interest rates increase.
  • Another Strong Dividend At 12% Yield
    Sep. 22, 2014 AGNC 10 Comments

    Summary

    • American Capital Agency Corp announced $0.65 dividend, 12% yield.
    • 4 dividends in a row of $0.65, with a catch-up dividend likely in the fourth quarter.
    • Anticipate another strong quarterly report in October 2014.
    • 2015 should see the interest rates rise, triggering a buy opportunity for investors as the stock price drops.
  • Dynex Capital Pays 12% Dividend Yield And Earns A Recommended Buy And Hold
    Sep. 20, 2014 DX 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Dynex Capital announces $0.25 dividend, 12% yield.
    • Insider selling over last 6 months mostly linked to key leaders taking some cash.
    • Federal Reserve Board comment this week was to hold the interest rate near zero.
    • Outlook for Dynex is to hold the stock and take the dividend each quarter.
  • Treasury Bond Bump Scares Market Into Sell-Off Of mREITs And Financial Stocks
    Sep. 16, 2014 REM, MORL, MORT 5 Comments

    Summary

    • U.S. Treasury Bond yields increase, causing sell off of many REITs.
    • Federal Reserve Statement on September 16 will indicate the Fed's direction for the next 6 months.
    • Change in the interest rates are coming, adjustments will be made.
    • mREITs will be stronger after the adjustments are steadied.
  • Insider Buying And Effect On Dividend Due At Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corp.
    Sep. 15, 2014 WMC 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Key leader buying more shares; second buy this quarter.
    • Announcement and ex-dividend date expected within the week.
    • Stock prices expected to climb between now and ex-dividend date.
  • Buy Orchid Island Capital For The 15% Yield Each Month And The Catch-Up Dividend Later This Year
    Sep. 12, 2014 ORC 31 Comments

    Summary

    • A monthly dividend of 15% yield is outstanding for investors.
    • Orchid Island is falling short of its required payout of 90% earnings and will have to pay a catch-up dividend in 2014.
    • We expect an increase in the dividend, likely to be announced in Q3 2014.
    • Buy and hold this stock, take the cash monthly, or grow your portfolio by reinvesting the dividends.
  • Great Northern Iron Ore To Close April 2015
    Sep. 12, 2014 GNI 3 Comments

    Summary

    • Shares over priced to dividend and final payment.
    • Production was down in 2013.
    • Shares will have a value of zero on 16 April, 2015.
  • Move On CYS Investments' Quarterly Dividend, 13% Yield And Future Opportunity
    Sep. 11, 2014 CYS 1 Comment

    Summary

    • Dividend payout dropped from $0.32 to $0.30 for the quarter, but within the REIT requirement of 90%.
    • The book price has steadily risen to $10.31, $0.63 over first quarter 2014.
    • 2015 may be the year of interest rate increases, but the future will bring stock price appreciations and bigger dividends.
  • Time To Move Prior To Western Asset Mortgage Capital's Dividend Announcement
    Sep. 10, 2014 WMC 5 Comments

    Summary

    • Dividend Announcement will push stock price higher until ex-dividend date.
    • Strong quarterly dividend expected again for Q3 2014 - $0.67.
    • Expect a bonus dividend for the catch up in Q4 2014.
    • Insider buying spurs speculation of more dividends to come.
  • CVR Refining Announced Coffeyville Refinery Back To Full Operations
    Sep. 3, 2014 CVRR 4 Comments

    Summary

    • Coffeyville refinery lost 30 days production for 3rd quarter.
    • Net sales will be down and net income will drop significantly.
    • Cost of repairs to be announced in 3rd quarter financial report.
    • The 4th quarter should be more profitable, dividend recovery in 2015.
  • Market View For 2014 And 2015, The Investor's View
    Sep. 1, 2014 CVRR, DIS, MRK 15 Comments

    Summary

    • Indicators point to a solid economic growth.
    • Dow Jones has climbed from 6500 in March, 2008 to over 17,000 in August, 2014.
    • Total return goal is 10% per year – Dividend plus Stock Price Appreciation.
  • The Right Time To Buy Orchid Island Capital
    Aug. 27, 2014 ORC 6 Comments

    Summary

    • Buy the stock within days after the ex-dividend date.
    • Orchid Island has a dip after every ex-dividend date, but there's a very small window.
    • Buy this stock and hold to take the dividend.
    • Take the cash for a nice income stock, or reinvest your dividends for growth.
  • Analysis For Investment Return On The Big 6 Banks
    Aug. 26, 2014 BAC, C, GS 5 Comments

    Summary

    • 2 banks should be able to return 10% to investors over the next year.
    • Wells Fargo trading at 1.65 premium compared to book value, while Citigroup and Bank of America trading at a discount at 0.76. All should move closer to book value.
    • 5 of 6 banks have billions of shares outstanding which creates difficulty in increasing the return to investors to near 10% - (stock price appreciation and dividend).
  • Insiders Buying At Western Asset Mortgage Capital
    Aug. 22, 2014 WMC 7 Comments

    Summary

    • Insiders buying again, Spring of 2014 and Fall of 2013.
    • Strong quarterly dividend expected for Q3 2014.
    • Expect a bonus dividend for the catch up in Q4 2014.
  • Taking Goldman Sachs To The Bank
    Aug. 21, 2014 GS 8 Comments

    Summary

    • Second Quarter’s financial report with net revenue beat expectations by 33%.
    • Number of outstanding shares compared to other big 5 banks supports value of the stock price.
    • Financials and liquidity strong for Basel III requirements.
    • Goldman Sachs likely to take advantage of foreign investment opportunities.
  • Bank Of America Raises Its Value For Investors
    Aug. 18, 2014 BAC 24 Comments

    Summary

    • BAC dividend jumps from $0.01 to $0.05 for Q2 2014.
    • One of the last major lawsuits to pay $16 billion.
    • Book value up, stock trading at a discount of 72%.
    • Anticipate the stock price to appreciate to near $17 per share by year-end.
  • Citigroup Moving Toward Strong Buy For Investors
    Aug. 15, 2014 C 30 Comments

    Summary

    • Citigroup settles RMBS during 2Q that shadows financial report.
    • Strong Book Value and lagging stock price sets stage for opportunity in 2015.
    • Citigroup has redeemed or retired $17.7 in debt securities.
    • Citigroup used $1.1 Deferred Tax Assets.
  • Not A Fan Of Fannie Mae And Freddie Mac
    Aug. 13, 2014 FNMA, FMCC 29 Comments

    Summary

    • Lawsuits are progressing through the courts. Positive strides for the investors, but far from winning their freedom from the government.
    • $5.4 billion in dividends from the Second Quarter, 2014 will be paid to the U.S. Treasury.
    • Expect increased regulations on GSEs and all financial companies.
    • Betting on Fannie and Freddie remain a high risk/high reward investment.