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Tom Dorsey  

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  • Bank Of America: A Final Pre-Stress Test Credit Risk Analysis [View article]
    Do you also remember when the Feds forced BAC to purchase Merrill Lynch because they would have someone to charge billions of dollars in penalties? BAC repaid all the money, plus all the penalties from all the banks, totals in the mega-billions has all been put in Washington's pocket to spend and none, I repeat NONE, has made it back to the offended consumers. The Fed is the real offender here, not the banks.
    Feb 7, 2015. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Over Sells Non-E&P Oil Companies [View article]

    The crack spread will/may affect the profit margin for the refineries.

    The write downs don't happen that way. At the price the refinery buys the oil they sell that batch at their cost plus expenses and profit margin, then when they buy the new batch, if it is cheaper, they can lower the cost based on the cost of the crude they buy.

    If you notice that the price comes down slower, you see the effect. When the refinery buys the crude, that cost is the base price for the sale of that batch. So we can clearly state the refineries are able to cover the cost of oil, their costs of production and their profit margin in the sale of their products.

    Jan 21, 2015. 07:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Market Over Sells Non-E&P Oil Companies [View article]

    Moving from NG to oil products is not easy, cheap or very fast. There has to be a long term commitment based on solid market principles. They currently do not have the analysis to support a quick move like that.

    Shippers may feel a pinch over time, but based on the information available today, we are not seeing the affect at this time. When Europe and China get back on track in a year or two, the demand for oil and gas will increase.

    Production by these refineries are based on the demand of oil products (gas, diesel, by-products, etc.) at the pumps in their markets. The refineries have been running near full capacity selling to gas stations, and the increased production at the wells have no effect, because the refineries buy from storage facilities not the wells. We are importing less crude oil, but the world supply is up. That is forcing the oil price down.

    Hope that helps answer some of your concerns.

    Thanks for the questions.
    Jan 21, 2015. 07:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Now A Cash Cow As A Monthly Dividend Payer [View article]
    Chris, I as the author have several friends who I discuss these issues. When I come across a point we discussed and agreed on, I do write we. As with your point on if the stock will drop another fifty cents, that comment was on Western Asset Mortgage Capital Corp. I have based my opinion on facts that I presented. I see you have written 354 articles, with 11 being PRO articles. You also cover many stocks. I have read a few of your articles, but will not make this type of comment, as it is opinionated and you bring no new facts to the discussion. Thanks for reading my articles and if you wish to write an article on these stocks I will look forward to reading them.
    Oct 9, 2014. 01:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks plunge to eight-week lows on global growth worries [View news story]
    1366 and peredina,

    Good point (and question). you are right the good US companies are going to continue to make profits. buying when the stock price drops is good bargain hunting. The article talks about the world markets, which is true, but most US investors have been taking some profits and waiting for the bottom to begin the climb again. We will see the climb start when the quarterly reports start hitting the streets. If you read a few of my articles, I talk about timing in the market and how to find opportunities. Happy Investing.
    Oct 7, 2014. 09:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Five Oaks Investment Extends Monthly Dividend For 4th Quarter With Near 14% Yield [View article]
    Oaks will continue to pay double digit returns. When the interest rates go up, the market will push the stock price down even more. But after the adjustment period, the profits, stock price and dividend will all increase. My recommendation is to stay for the long run, take the cash or buy more shares with your dividend. Good question. Hope this helps.
    Sep 23, 2014. 09:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Treasury Bond Bump Scares Market Into Sell-Off Of mREITs And Financial Stocks [View article]
    Let us see what the Feds say today and Wednesday (Sep 16 & 17, 2014)
    Sep 16, 2014. 12:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Disappointment, But Brighter Future For Alon USA Partners [View article]
    Readers, good catch on the ALJ, sorry, I read too many articles and they overlapped. ALJ is the parent company of ALDW.

    I don't see the 3Q dividend being $1, but think $.65-$0.85 is realistic. If the company can run full operational status for 4 consecutive quarters, then I think the dividend can grow and sustain at the $1 per quarter mark.

    My buy back in will probably be after the 3Q dividend is paid in Nov-Dec., after a solid dividend and the unit price drops would be a sweet buy-in point. I cannot give you a number right now, but wait a week or two after the dividend to find the best buy-in for the quarter.
    Thanks again.
    Aug 12, 2014. 01:21 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Orchid Island Is A Monthly Dividend Payer Of 15% [View article]
    L9, Urbannek is correct. For the company to maintain their tax free status as a REIT, they must pay 90% of taxable income (earned income) on their financial report or lose their status. This is important to us investors because. If the company pays no tax it looks like this. Earned income with payout of 90% or better to investors, then we are taxed on the amount as earned income on our personal income tax reports. (100 x .20 tax = I keep 80%). A non-REIT company pays their corporate tax (100 x .15 tax to gov is 15%, I get = .85 that is paid to me and then I pay the personal tax looks like this. (.85 x .20 tax = I keep only 68%). REITs allow investors to keep more than a company that does not have this special tax-free status. So to answer your question, I want them to pay out at least 90%, and the last 10% is up to the board if they can invest it better to make me more money, or better to pay it out based on the current market conditions.
    Aug 10, 2014. 08:18 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • American Capital Agency Corp. Grows Toward The Future [View article]
    Gents, Bob Anderton is correct. The last 3 quarterly dividends and this coming dividend is the fourth quarter in a row at $0.65. My error came from a site called that reported a dividend on Mar 25, 2014 and March 27, 2014. Thank you for the correction. My point is still valid that the company is profiting near this dividend rate over the last year and we expect it to continue. Thanks for the correcting me on the numbers.
    Aug 7, 2014. 09:01 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Double-Digit Return On CYS Investments Even Better [View article]

    I will elaborate on my description using CYS since the ex-date.

    If you look at the stock price, CYS closed at $9.16 on the ex-date (Jun 19). The dividend was $0.32 which would open the following day at $8.81. The market supply and demand let the share price drop to close at $8.66 on July 7th. That is a $0.50 drop which is a great buy in price. The low on July 7 was actually $8.62, but I try to use the open/close numbers for a more realistic look.

    Hope this helps.
    Jul 16, 2014. 03:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investment In Armour Residential REIT Nets Profitable Double-Digit Gains [View article]

    Good question.

    In general, these companies borrow millions or billions of dollars and when the cost if money (interest rates go up), the cost of borrowing goes up. Anything they currently have borrowed the investments are locked in. Many companies have hedge investments that if interest rates go up, their hedge investments will make more money, trying to offset their losses.
    Jul 14, 2014. 12:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Interest Rate Increase Not Likely During 2014 [View article]
    Great comments. Your additional points support my position that we - do not believe interest rates will go up soon. I do not disagree with many of your points, just could not squeeze everything into the article. On the flip side, we should be looking for indicators that could signal a change that may allow the Feds to begin raising the rates. Thanks for all your comments.
    Jun 25, 2014. 08:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Western Asset Pays Another 18% Dividend For Q2 2014 [View article]
    Readers, thanks for the comments. many are spot on. If you follow the 90 day cycle I discuss, you will see the stock price peaks just before the ex-dividend date, then bottoms about a week to 4 weeks after, then begins the climb again to the next dividend.

    You are spot on with the interest rate risk. If interest rates rise it will cost more to fund the current borrowing, however, the Feds have constantly stated they plan to hold interest rates low for 2014 and into 2015. At some point they will rise, but the Feds are aware of the effects when they do let them climb. The rate should climb slowly, not to effect the markets ability to borrow and loan money.

    Have a great day, and thanks for the comments.
    Jun 21, 2014. 01:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Strength In ARMOUR Residential REIT's Portfolio - May 2014 SEC Filing [View article]
    Great comments, I will address 2 points you ask questions on.

    1. ARR is a good buy and hold stock. If you reinvest your dividends, you can grow the value over 10% (13 right now). If you take the cash, you can create a cash machine that pays a steady, month allowance.
    1b. Both the preferred are paying over 8%, but they are preferred and have the set payout spelled out in the prospectus. If you are comfortable with ARR, the common shares are paying much better, but as you saw in May 2013, the value (stock price) can drop.

    2. the drop in dividends was due to the market and that drove the stock prices down as well. As the federal government keeps the interest rates low, the effect on the ability of companies to make more money is also there. There is no perfect model or no perfect investment. As you can see many readers/investors, (I am one also) invest because we believe the stock will continue to be profitable. Each quarter and annual report continues to support our belief. If and when market conditions change, and the will, all companies will adjust and so will ARR. How well they do will effect our return on our investments.

    Thanks again to all my readers.
    Jun 2, 2014. 08:29 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment