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Tom Guttenberger

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  • Dollar Breakout Of Range-Bound? [View article]
    Definitely took notice of the dollar weakness this past week. Playing the Yen against it for a short squeeze in the short term looks sort of interesting to me.
    Apr 12 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Your NCAA Bracket To Improve Your Investing [View article]
    Using a stock market analogy, the main predictor in my tournament forecasting model has always been aggregate starting 5 draft stock. This method has always treated me well, and draft.net runs a great site with great scouting reports throughout these young players' careers.

    This year's draft is exceptionally deep, and that makes mocking the first round very difficult. I watch MSU and Michigan most, and feel like they've missed a few things specific to those teams. I haven't been able to figure out pro scouts' love affair with Gary Harris, a 6'4'' 2-guard who was thoroughly outplayed by the Blue Hen backcourt yesterday. He and Payne seem completely flipped to me in this mock. Also, I don't understand how Glen Robinson isn't projected in the first round. He does more for this UM team than people give credit for with his size, athleticism, and shooting. He's the most pro-ready small forward in the whole draft class, in my opinion.
    Mar 21 10:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Loser Strategy [View article]
    You're too kind James! If you aren't long, you should be short. Short it to the ground!
    Sep 13 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate Property Visit Highlights Promising Outlook [View article]
    Plenty of room for margin expansion!
    Sep 13 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate Property Visit Highlights Promising Outlook [View article]
    Nicely done. I've been bullish on XIN, never done this level of due dilligence displayed here though lol.
    Sep 11 10:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Now The Fun Begins [View article]
    I would be perfectly content shorting AAPL to the ground these days.
    Sep 7 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How About A Wage Hike? [View article]
    SU, check out this blurb from 2011: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Aug 25 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed fears send stocks sharply lower; Dow -225, Nasdaq -63 [View news story]
    Private sector really is and has been strong in a lot of ways. My fear is that they have and are overinvesting into their leverage machinines via buybacks, etc. vs real utilization in the economy.
    Aug 16 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed fears send stocks sharply lower; Dow -225, Nasdaq -63 [View news story]
    2% random move in gold probably is within one standard deviation past 6 months, seems like.
    Aug 16 01:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed fears send stocks sharply lower; Dow -225, Nasdaq -63 [View news story]
    I'm not very invested in stocks at all right now. I'd love for there to be a huge correction in stocks right now; makes all of my other assets stronger relatively.
    Aug 16 01:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coal stocks rally on improved Moody's outlook [View news story]
    This is amazing how depressed these stocks and commodity prices remain. If I had free money to spec on these I probably still would I guess.
    Aug 9 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn Q2 EPS beats by $0.07, revenue beats, guidance light [View news story]
    Light guidance is sort of in the eye of the beholder - a bull could say they are holding their cards tight. Still, I'd be expecting it to get rocked off this as a POTENTIALLY aimless click generator.
    Aug 1 08:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China says banking system liquidity in the country "remains ample" and notes that June M2 growth of 14% is close to "the full-year target of 13%." In an effort to allay concerns about a cash crunch, the PBOC said Sunday it will "use a mix of price and quantitative policy tools to adjust liquidity in the banking system" in order to ensure prudent "growth in money, credit and social financing." [View news story]
    Growth = bubble. Brilliant, seriously.
    Jul 15 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China says banking system liquidity in the country "remains ample" and notes that June M2 growth of 14% is close to "the full-year target of 13%." In an effort to allay concerns about a cash crunch, the PBOC said Sunday it will "use a mix of price and quantitative policy tools to adjust liquidity in the banking system" in order to ensure prudent "growth in money, credit and social financing." [View news story]
    Ya, as it turns out the credit spreads widened from banks competing over funds to lend, it would appear. It is amazing to think that this was actually "normal" monetary policy in the no-too-distant past. I remain having a hard time imagining that things are overly perilous there in consumer or real estate lending at least for the time being.
    Jul 14 05:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How To Profit From The Shiller CAPE Ratio [View article]
    I definitely start with a lot of respect for Shiller too and I like your analysis here too Jeff. I've never really considered studying margins that closely and definitely would be looking at other metrics first to predict money flow and price movements.

    I think that a continued move in interest rates could cause a bigger correction. Between fiscal tightening, the fed stepping off their policy, easing fears abroad, rising oil, and the outperformance by the US market, to bring us here in the first place, I think there are enough things to dissuade buying, or even contributing to a 401k in my case. Purely as a trader, I would be positioning tactifully on volatility. The metrics I am looking at indicate that stocks aren't really cheap anymore and with all the distortions/risks present I don't see the attactiveness of buying in most domestic sectors at these levels.
    Jul 13 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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