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Tom Guttenberger  

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  • Evaluating The New Kid [View article]
    Here's an interesting summary:

    Interestingly, I took a class by Jim Adams at UofM and he appears to be her most common co-author outside of her own husband. Without delving into the papers, you get a sense that her research was dedicated to events and frictions in labor markets more than anything else. I'd expect her to be dovish coming from this dedication of study. As pointed out, she is grabbing the reigns of a somewhat unprecidented monetary policy experiment which poses the unstudied risk of inflation. This appointment certainly gives us someone who will keep things highly liquid in banking to avoid the downsides of wht she has researched, but also someone who doesn't seem the most appropriate IF some inflation event were to take hold. For this purpose I had thought John Taylor would have been the appointment -- certainly he could have been coaxed to stay the policy course, but also would have brought more studied expertise on the side of tail risk. I think it demonstrates how minimal some think this tail risk is, and as others point out, this inlies the problem.
    May 8, 2014. 09:44 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. To Foreign Officials: Stop Buying Treasuries [View article]
    Certainly an interesting topic, and I always enjoy Marc's articles. I look at this from more of a trade-first perspective, in that the excessive supply of Treasuries is a direct symptom of the trade deficit. Further, I think the possibly of a consumption-lead high GDP growth phase for the US seems extremely bearish for the dollar and treasuries, as this would only exacerbate the supply assuming no immediate re-balancing of trade. As long as the the Fed keeps sopping up the spill over, the interest rates will struggle to attract the private money investors who wish to compete in a non-distorted market. On the other hand rates probably rise or surge without the intervention. Path of least resistence feels like dollar-down in any circumstance.
    Apr 17, 2014. 02:39 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dollar Breakout Of Range-Bound? [View article]
    Definitely took notice of the dollar weakness this past week. Playing the Yen against it for a short squeeze in the short term looks sort of interesting to me.
    Apr 12, 2014. 09:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Using Your NCAA Bracket To Improve Your Investing [View article]
    Using a stock market analogy, the main predictor in my tournament forecasting model has always been aggregate starting 5 draft stock. This method has always treated me well, and runs a great site with great scouting reports throughout these young players' careers.

    This year's draft is exceptionally deep, and that makes mocking the first round very difficult. I watch MSU and Michigan most, and feel like they've missed a few things specific to those teams. I haven't been able to figure out pro scouts' love affair with Gary Harris, a 6'4'' 2-guard who was thoroughly outplayed by the Blue Hen backcourt yesterday. He and Payne seem completely flipped to me in this mock. Also, I don't understand how Glen Robinson isn't projected in the first round. He does more for this UM team than people give credit for with his size, athleticism, and shooting. He's the most pro-ready small forward in the whole draft class, in my opinion.
    Mar 21, 2014. 10:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Loser Strategy [View article]
    You're too kind James! If you aren't long, you should be short. Short it to the ground!
    Sep 13, 2013. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate Property Visit Highlights Promising Outlook [View article]
    Plenty of room for margin expansion!
    Sep 13, 2013. 03:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate Property Visit Highlights Promising Outlook [View article]
    Nicely done. I've been bullish on XIN, never done this level of due dilligence displayed here though lol.
    Sep 11, 2013. 10:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: Now The Fun Begins [View article]
    I would be perfectly content shorting AAPL to the ground these days.
    Sep 7, 2013. 05:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How About A Wage Hike? [View article]
    SU, check out this blurb from 2011:
    Aug 25, 2013. 12:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed fears send stocks sharply lower; Dow -225, Nasdaq -63 [View news story]
    Private sector really is and has been strong in a lot of ways. My fear is that they have and are overinvesting into their leverage machinines via buybacks, etc. vs real utilization in the economy.
    Aug 16, 2013. 02:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed fears send stocks sharply lower; Dow -225, Nasdaq -63 [View news story]
    2% random move in gold probably is within one standard deviation past 6 months, seems like.
    Aug 16, 2013. 01:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed fears send stocks sharply lower; Dow -225, Nasdaq -63 [View news story]
    I'm not very invested in stocks at all right now. I'd love for there to be a huge correction in stocks right now; makes all of my other assets stronger relatively.
    Aug 16, 2013. 01:15 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Coal stocks rally on improved Moody's outlook [View news story]
    This is amazing how depressed these stocks and commodity prices remain. If I had free money to spec on these I probably still would I guess.
    Aug 9, 2013. 10:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LinkedIn Q2 EPS beats by $0.07, revenue beats, guidance light [View news story]
    Light guidance is sort of in the eye of the beholder - a bull could say they are holding their cards tight. Still, I'd be expecting it to get rocked off this as a POTENTIALLY aimless click generator.
    Aug 1, 2013. 08:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China says banking system liquidity in the country "remains ample" and notes that June M2 growth of 14% is close to "the full-year target of 13%." In an effort to allay concerns about a cash crunch, the PBOC said Sunday it will "use a mix of price and quantitative policy tools to adjust liquidity in the banking system" in order to ensure prudent "growth in money, credit and social financing." [View news story]
    Growth = bubble. Brilliant, seriously.
    Jul 15, 2013. 12:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment