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Tom Guttenberger

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  • How To Profit From The Shiller CAPE Ratio [View article]
    I definitely start with a lot of respect for Shiller too and I like your analysis here too Jeff. I've never really considered studying margins that closely and definitely would be looking at other metrics first to predict money flow and price movements.

    I think that a continued move in interest rates could cause a bigger correction. Between fiscal tightening, the fed stepping off their policy, easing fears abroad, rising oil, and the outperformance by the US market, to bring us here in the first place, I think there are enough things to dissuade buying, or even contributing to a 401k in my case. Purely as a trader, I would be positioning tactifully on volatility. The metrics I am looking at indicate that stocks aren't really cheap anymore and with all the distortions/risks present I don't see the attactiveness of buying in most domestic sectors at these levels.
    Jul 13 06:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bull Of The Day: Conn's [View article]
    Nice consensus estimates projecting runaway business growth on the back of appliance loan consumer credit - extremely skeptical.
    Jul 2 10:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • April S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index: +1.7% M/M vs. +1.2% expected, +1.1% prior. On a Y/Y basis, prices rose 12.1%, the fastest pace since 2006. The unadjusted monthly gains in the 10 and 20-city composites (+2.6% and +2.5%) were the largest in the history of the survey. Not worried about the bump in mortgage rates, S&P's David Blitzer expects the gains to continue. Among individual cities, San Francisco home prices were up 23.9% Y/Y. Nothing to see here, move along. [View news story]
    Too bad his own predictions didn't jive with this. I would expect home price gains to slow based on the rise in rates, which I also expect to be gradual.
    Jun 25 09:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Female Health Company: A Great Story For Women, But Not For Investors [View article]
    Tremendous article Ron! Right down to the web-search results!
    Jun 21 01:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Gross's Dreadful Analysis Of The U.S. Economy's 'Wounded Heart' [View article]
    Sounds like Mr. Gross has some grumpy fixed-income clients he needs to commiserate with. I've thought about this whole carry phenominon a good bit, and arrived at conclusions similar to your own. It is an interesting ecomomic situation when you consider the circumstances of the savers, and their priorities. If goods are services are less readily available in the economy than money is, it is the aim of the central banker to incentivize a certain amount of savings. Conversely, as is the case right now, if there is an abundance of liquidity, the monetarist should aim to have that money put to use in some way. I liked your point about these titanic companies not actually needing the money, and ultimately, I don't think it seeds capitalism as originally intended. I'd be refreshed to see a generation of baby boomers all turn into small-time venture capitalists, rather than idly chasing easy (safe) money!
    Jun 11 04:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Calling A Bottom In Long Bond Yields [View article]
    Ya, these recommendations have been mixed. If you were shorting the 20 or 30 year, you would have never been down a day playing from the day I posted. Coal hasn't done as well, but I'm not sure my opinion has changed a ton there. I'd measure the mREIT call ultimately by how many of them go under, I heard some are venturing into physical real estate, which could be more interesting in my opinion. I do think real estate prices is bound to cool partially because of a rising-rate trade off impacting amortized total value and muddle along relative to the past 12 months, and some housing markets I would completely avoid.
    Jun 10 10:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Default Risk For Major U.S. Banks And Brokers [View article]
    I could have guessed this exact order on almost 0 additional knowledge aside from ticker symbol and their reputation coming out of the last lending crisis. Would that be the correct assessment of credit risk? I think almost certainly not. It goes to show predisposed pricing biases and opacity in lending as trumping factors, aside obviously from the government put option skew on the whole market.
    Jun 10 10:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monsanto (MON -3.3%) calls the genetically modified wheat found in Oregon an isolated occurrence, likely the result of an accident or deliberate mixing of seeds. MON says tests of 600 samples of each of two wheat varieties planted by an Oregon farmer show no presence of the experimental Roundup Ready wheat, and tests of 30K wheat samples in Oregon and Washington also show no contamination. [View news story]
    Can anyone even tell me why this whole story is such a big deal?
    Jun 5 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Exxon's (XOM -0.4%) arrival as a tentative partner gives InterOil's (IOC +6.9%) Elk/Antelope resource a blue chip "stamp of approval," Raymond James writes, but "the market's enthusiasm will be tempered by the fact that a deal has yet to be finalized." Still unknown: how much of the resource will be monetized; the timing of a final deal; and "most importantly," the purchase price. [View news story]
    One of those supposed frauds, going wayy back too I think in 2009 plenty of whistle blowers. Shareholders Unite scores again here.
    May 24 09:51 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Serious overcapacity in China's steel industry is unlikely to ease in 2013, which could continue to hamper steel prices (SLX), analysts say at Platts Steel Market Europe conference. China is set to produce ~750M metric tons of crude steel in 2013 while capacity will rise to 950M, putting heavy pressure on steel prices in Europe and in the world steel industry as a whole. [View news story]
    You raise steel production capacity by mining and burning a lot of coal. I guess we will have to wait for the next contradictory headline in the morning, so a rally in this commodity can be sufficiently muted.

    Yawn.
    May 23 06:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Agency MBS fail to bounce from the "massive liquidation" following Bernanke's testimony yesterday, according to CIBC's Tom Tucci. Suggestions of a tapering of Fed purchases sent Fannie Mae MBS with 3% coupons to their lowest levels of the year. "Right now it seems the only source of demand is the Fed," says BAML's Brad Scott. Unsurprisingly, pure agency mREITs like AGNC and ARR hit 52-week lows today. Annaly (NLY) - now diversified into the commercial space with the CXS purchase - outperforms[View news story]
    Probably when it gets delisted lol.
    May 23 06:00 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Agency MBS fail to bounce from the "massive liquidation" following Bernanke's testimony yesterday, according to CIBC's Tom Tucci. Suggestions of a tapering of Fed purchases sent Fannie Mae MBS with 3% coupons to their lowest levels of the year. "Right now it seems the only source of demand is the Fed," says BAML's Brad Scott. Unsurprisingly, pure agency mREITs like AGNC and ARR hit 52-week lows today. Annaly (NLY) - now diversified into the commercial space with the CXS purchase - outperforms[View news story]
    This is interesting for a few reasons -- without readily available price info I am left to speculate. If the spread of MBS is rising relative to treasuries, this is not only indicative of future fed involvement, but of the status of loan quality and of future yield assumptions. If your pool of loans is expected to be of higher credit risk, MBS would command a higher spread, but also if the security imputation yield is lower (implying lower long term yields in the future). The latter feature results in a higher yield spread given that a portion of the cash flow is impulse-path dependent, and yield needs to compensate for the chances of this future step-down in cash flow for the investor.

    The rise in yields is not particularly surprising to me, in that I noted these distortions in one of my 3 articles in the last 8 months. The amazing part, I think, is that this is all cocurrent to the circumstances, in which Europe faced a mini meltdown and Japan a veritable one increasing the favoritism for US denominated assets. Where even though external biases are aiding money flow into the US, you see the fed still acting, and interest rates STILL rising. To me this speaks to a risk preference shift to equities and blunt xenophobia of other credit and currency markets in general. I don't know. This has certainly been quite a rally.
    May 23 05:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Central Bankers' Day [View article]
    JGB volatility seems miniscule compared to movements of the underlying, seems like there must have been some sort of arb there. CHF falling against any of the major floating currencies is tough for me to fathom -- most of their central bank assets are in foriegn currency and gold, and their trade/growth stats are much better than virtually any in the EZ.
    May 22 01:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consumer prices rise 2.4% in China during April, up from 2.1% in March and slightly above economists' estimates. Producer prices fell 2.6% during the month, a steeper decline than expected. [View news story]
    Who cares though right?

    I'm sure some official just picked this number out of the air, you think?
    May 8 10:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR): FQ2 EPS of $0.93 beats by $0.20. Revenue of $1.00B (+14% Y/Y) in-line. Shares halted AH on news of a 5-year agreement with Starbucks. (PR[View news story]
    Yawn. Some static-removed instrument moving for absolutely no reason again. Difference was you could get a 50% value change for some half-news item on GMCR in the motive days.
    May 8 10:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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