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Tom Guttenberger

 
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  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters (GMCR): FQ2 EPS of $0.93 beats by $0.20. Revenue of $1.00B (+14% Y/Y) in-line. Shares halted AH on news of a 5-year agreement with Starbucks. (PR[View news story]
    Yawn. Some static-removed instrument moving for absolutely no reason again. Difference was you could get a 50% value change for some half-news item on GMCR in the motive days.
    May 8, 2013. 10:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magic Trees: The Performance Of Equities Vs. Commodities [View article]
    I would layoff all of my workers, close up shop, sit on my reserves, and pay down my debt with cash on hand before I sold a 2016 barrel of oil for $85.

    It doesn't make any sense, Brendan. Why would you engineer a cash flow when you can (in)directly impact its price with your own actions???

    Further, it doesn't even happen to much of an extent -- just look at how tepid the volume and open interest is in these contracts. This is an illustration of market maker and HFT interests -- concentrating volumes to near-dated deliveries.
    May 8, 2013. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Magic Trees: The Performance Of Equities Vs. Commodities [View article]
    Maybe I'm NOT the only person mystified by 2016ish WTI futures trading around $85.

    Then again, when (as an example) the airlines go bust at the hands of "evil speculators" option/warrant holders will be glad they repaid that money as (investor-friendly) dividends rather than insurance for their future. Compensation is time sensitive after all.

    Hedging demand even at these prices is non-existent; seems like no one has forgotten about looming government put options.
    May 7, 2013. 11:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Stock Market Bubble Is Forming Right Now [View article]
    I think velocity is declining structurally so strongly because of how the money is distributed. The savers/high earners find themselves in a situation where their habits leave themselves holding a larger denomination of these assets. Ironically these same habits slow down the total turnover of money by definition.

    I think spending among the tiers of the population remains about the same, in all likelihood. You just see an "asset-purpose" switch, where more money is counted in a particular category. Obvious when money is put forth as a housing down-payment it still was an asset, but just not counted into the velocity measure.

    Or if the person is invested in a fixed-income product, this doesn't count as M2 either. So when the risk/return on bonds is razor sharp (I mean that in all senses), the attractiveness of cash increases as well.

    Then you also have an increase in dividend yields which I hypothesize also slow velocity. Rather than re-investing into jobs, R&D, etc., companies pay back shareholders. The shareholders love it, but even if the money is re-invested, this type of churn can't act positively on a companies bottom line, without increasing credit that is.
    This all on top of the aforementioned. Keep an eye on M2, and just realize the economy seems pretty well engineered to post 2-3% growth FOR NOW.
    May 6, 2013. 08:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Stock Market Bubble Is Forming Right Now [View article]
    I will stay tuned. I have some formed notions around this topic, but it is good to see other insights. It is a great topic.
    May 3, 2013. 11:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Stock Market Bubble Is Forming Right Now [View article]
    You basically created the inverse of M2 monetary velocity with your metric. This is definitely interesting study in that it isn't clear why or how this could actually affect the market and valuations.

    Mid-90s an abberation caused by securization and credit-based transaction affecting GDP positively and disproportionately to whatever sort of base or liquidity measure. How this metric has grown to the status that it has is a little bit baffling, but consider:
    1. Securitization has shrunk since peaking in ~08.
    2. Passive, slow-velocity money (deposits) have grown at a great rate.
    3. The US has a perfectly and hugely systemic trade deficit and that perennially eats at the denominator in your metric.
    4. The greatest consumer credit growth category (student loans) is easily manifested into liquidity, and this expansion at rates as market-disadvantageous as they are, actually might have a drag on real GDP at a certain point, disregarding the non-findings of Reinhoff-Roheim or whoever that over-simplified and apparently miscalculated study was authored by. My point - rates matter more than confluence of variables.
    May 3, 2013. 11:01 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is it all about China? General Motors (GM +3.6%) trades higher after the impact of China on the automaker's Q1 results starts to get fully digested. Barclays notes China accounted for $0.40 of the $0.58 profit GM put in during Q1, while Detroit Free Press reporter Nathan Bomey tabuluated GM sold more cars in China than Europe, South America, India, Canada, and Mexico combined. [View news story]
    American companies selling to China getting excellent pop off their consumer and upward guidance. Chinese companies selling to the same consumer will have their P/E ratios just logarithmically converge to 0.
    May 3, 2013. 09:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carhops, Coneys, And Healthcare: Why I'm Short Sonic Drive-Ins, Part I [View article]
    Taste, nutrition, cost, considered, it really must be among the worst food you could buy lol.
    May 3, 2013. 09:48 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Carhops, Coneys, And Healthcare: Why I'm Short Sonic Drive-Ins, Part I [View article]
    Great article, I'll check for part 2. Completely anecdotal -- in maybe 2006/2007 my friends and I were clamoring for a Sonic in Michigan, in part due to all of the advertising (must have been purchased nationally or regionally). After getting what we wished and going a few times, it completely lost its luster and we stopped.
    May 1, 2013. 10:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Peabody Energy's (BTUQ1 results: Projects 2013 U.S. coal consumption for electricity generation will grow by 60M-80M tons Y/Y based on strong Q1 demand, which rose 8% and accounted for ~40% of total electricity generation. Issues downside guidance for Q2, seeing EPS of ($0.25)-$0.01 vs. $0.01 consensus. Shares +1.2% premarket. [View news story]
    The market and the media would have you believing that coal consumption for electricity is down ~99% YOY.

    Give it a week. Burning coal will be a supposed relic of the past again. Yawn.
    Apr 18, 2013. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • When looking for dividend stocks, Kelley Wright believes a company isn't necessarily more attractive just because it pays a higher dividend. The key is when a stock's current yield is at the high end of the range of past yields; a strong balance sheet and a consistent pattern of higher earnings and rising dividends help too. Wright's top 10: APD, ADM, KO, COP, CVX, OXY, PEP, RS, TXN, WAG[View news story]
    This is such nonsense -- everyone knows the only thing that matters in dividend, or general investing, is how large a dividend is, and how impatiently a company passes through every last cent of earnings.
    Apr 13, 2013. 10:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Takes Out Major Support: Next Stop $1,350 [View article]
    I thought this might have been a brave call, but look at the plunge today! Nice one!
    Gold as an investment is kind of tough for me to understand sometimes too, given that we don't really use it. I've never been brave enough to short it against debased fiat money though.
    Apr 12, 2013. 11:38 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Extreme Record U.S. Temperatures Could Affect Wheat, Corn And Natural Gas Market [View article]
    In utter disbelief watching nitrogen-based fertilizer producer CF struggle in today's trading session.
    Apr 11, 2013. 02:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Could There Be A Silver Lining To Declining Labor Force Participation? [View article]
    The dichotomy of posters on this site makes audience-pleasing, and presenting interesting, contrarian findings very difficult. For every article that gets called out for something like this, you have probably a dozen that pass off far more egregious 'analysis' and are heaped with praise.

    People are always much more willing to accept and praise posts that agree with their unsubstantiated hunches. Kudos for posting something counterintuitive, but I think we all agree the relationship is small.
    Apr 11, 2013. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China swung to a shock trade deficit of $884M in March from a surplus of $15.25B in February and badly missed forecasts for a surplus of $14.7B. Imports +14% vs consensus of +6.1%; March exports +10% vs +21.8% in February and vs expectations of +12%. Q1 trade surplus $43.07B vs $660M a year earlier. JPMorgan economist Haibin Zhu says the rise in imports could help reduce worries over the strength of domestic demand. [View news story]
    Fear&Greedtrader is absolutely right. The fact is that 90% of the data seems very positive too (and not just the market-interested HSBC PMI). The data is all in agreement that China is consuming/building/ hoarding more, still gaining export market share, and yet their equities don't get bought and commodities don't budge against fiat currencies. Pretty amazing if you ask me.
    Apr 10, 2013. 05:02 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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