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Tom Guttenberger

 
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  • Investors Are Finally Wising Up to BofA's Potential [View article]
    That's one way to look at it I guess. I was actually working at Merril Lynch during the crisis though.

    I just don't see a government incentivized merger as saving the economy. Maybe a savior to those who invested with Merrill.

    An insolvent entity 'buying' another insolvent entity is just a more insolvent entity.
    Jan 5, 2011. 05:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Green Mountain Coffee Roasters Is a Good Short [View article]
    Ah good ole HUSA, lol. This company just seems like a swing trader magnet, and I've honeslty never even bothered looking into the valuation of this one. $12 M in cash for a company that size does seem pretty alarming. Major tipping point on the chart right now, will keep my eye on it...Thanks for the tip.
    Jan 5, 2011. 05:25 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • My Top 10 Stocks for 2011 (Plus 7 Honorable Mentions) [View article]
    Ask everyone who still isn't buying it I guess. Far too big to acquire at that value (makes metric less meaingful) and people see their competition increasing. Just playing devils advocate here, it does seem cheap.
    Jan 4, 2011. 05:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Top 10 Stocks for 2011 (Plus 7 Honorable Mentions) [View article]
    Fair enough, I guess I should not have played the antagonist to begin with.

    Good luck in 2011. If the market keeps rising your dartboard strategy will trump my tactical shorts everytime.
    Jan 4, 2011. 05:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Top 10 Stocks for 2011 (Plus 7 Honorable Mentions) [View article]
    Ok so here is where I take exception. BAC isn't allowed to acquire a bank based on the Financial Regulatory Reform Bill which prohibits Banks holding >10% of national deposits to acquire any more banks. So the reason he sited to buy the stock is completely impossible.

    CSCO - I could go either way one. Valuation seems cheap but their margins on the network business are going to be squeezed by increasing competition. Also, I'm not a fan of stock buybacks for tech companies. In short, there are reasons it has underperformed.

    Some of the picks seem intriguing. It just didn't seem well researched to me.
    Jan 4, 2011. 10:10 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Are Finally Wising Up to BofA's Potential [View article]
    What?

    I don't even know how to respond to that, please explain.
    Jan 4, 2011. 10:00 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Loans Gently Bottoming? [View article]
    I think we can all agree that this is a good article and an important issue.

    Kudos to the author.
    Jan 4, 2011. 09:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • My Top 10 Stocks for 2011 (Plus 7 Honorable Mentions) [View article]
    These picks are all poorly thought out, and the fact that you have 300+ followers is a complete joke.

    My bet is you woke up today and threw darts at the WSJ.
    Jan 4, 2011. 08:47 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do the Facts Back Up Bernanke's QE II Claims? [View article]
    Well we had $4.00 gas during QE0.

    We had year after year of growth based on artifical stimulation from securitization. I'm just saying the real problem started quite a while ago. And the privately held banks, and regulators should share the blame. I agree inflation is a concern, and rising prices will hurt the consumer. But the alternative could have been domestic depression, its just not a desirable problem to try to solve.

    I argue that inflation would be the lesser of two evils. Keep incentivizing entrepreuers, and America will continue developing world-leading technologies. Hopefully all parties can act responsibly in the future.
    Jan 4, 2011. 08:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bank Loans Gently Bottoming? [View article]
    I can't say it enough, securitization is key. As for loans bottoming, currently I think Basel III, and consumer financial protection laws give banks very little incentive to lend much more.
    Jan 4, 2011. 08:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Do the Facts Back Up Bernanke's QE II Claims? [View article]
    Thank you. The M2 graph shows the doubters all they need to know. This is 100% explained by securitization. The fed funds rate correlation with this graph breaks down in the 90's just as securitization took off. Now it has fallen off the cliff -

    seekingalpha.com/artic...

    Not saying inflation is a non-issue, but it has more to do with bank behavior and regualtion than most would like to admit.

    Jan 4, 2011. 08:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investors Are Finally Wising Up to BofA's Potential [View article]
    Money managers who wanted in, but didn't want this laggard showing up on their prospectus were probably the cause of the move Monday. BAC is interesting based on pure size, but they've got some problems...
    Jan 4, 2011. 07:47 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Stock: Too Good to Be True? [View article]
    ^Totally agree, I am also sitting out of this one. Just playing the traders advocate here - monitoring technicals closely and well placed stops should, in my opinion, play to the advantage of trend-following participants.
    Jan 4, 2011. 07:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Stock: Too Good to Be True? [View article]
    Based on my research I tend to agree with some of these things you are saying here. By the time they are actually going to pull a significant amount of these metals out of the ground others probably will have too, so the prices should calm down. Problem is the panic in prices until that happens, and people need a proxy for the play. MCP is one of maybe 3 plays, I know of, that work as a proxy.

    As a trader being short here seems like a phenominally risky strategy, I wish you luck.
    Jan 4, 2011. 06:48 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Keynesians Thought They Got for Christmas [View article]
    Side note: I don't think we can even call the bailouts of the past years "Keynsian". I propose we rename to "Bernakian".

    Its the difference between jumping out of a pothole and the Grand Canyon...banks had their feet stuck on the printing press lpedal long before the government did.
    Jan 4, 2011. 01:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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