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Tom Guttenberger

 
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  • A First Shot in the Coming Class War? [View article]
    Excellent article. These facts and figure you provided have confirmed some suspicions I have had about the possible catylsts of increased social unrest. I hope that it doesn't escalte, but who knows. I feel like President Obama does an excellent job (better than anyone else could) of instilling hope in our nation's middle and lower classes, and this alone can be powerful force to neutralize the emotions felt from the polarizing economic statistics you have pointed out.

    I know there are hundreds of thousands of Anti-Obama people out there, but partisanism aside, you simply can't tell me everything he does is wrong or terrible. If you anything he hasn't been as leftist as most would have anticipated. Full discloser - I am a Ron Paul fan.
    Jan 10 10:05 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan's Derivatives Whale Drags Down Banks [View article]
    On the bright side, if JPM lost $2B at the trading desk, some combination of banks took it from them. Credit quality on the (formerly) core business of lending looked much improved too. I'd be looking for other banks to suprise on the upside this quarter. Probably doesn't matter though as this will give investors the spooks throughout the sector and rightfully so.
    May 10 06:30 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A First Shot in the Coming Class War? [View article]
    Author does take an extreme stance, but points out the potential problem with polar economic circumstances. Its an issue that no one wants to talk about, but could someday be a problem...
    Jan 10 10:49 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Coal miners Alpha Natural Resources (ANR) and Peabody Energy (BTU) are -2.3% and -1.4% premarket after they're nailed by downgrades at Nomura. ANR is cut to Neutral from Buy as the firm sees more significant earnings and free cash flow risks than expected, while BTU is cut to Reduce to reflect more conservative forward multiples given elevated earnings risk and weaker growth rates. [View news story]
    I thought Nomura has downgraded coal a dozen times in the past 6 months. Didn't know they had more bullets with the name "fade into our short cover".
    Oct 12 08:49 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is America Falling Asleep at the Switch With Uranium? [View article]
    If we (the U.S.) deproliferate our arsenal that will be a nice source of fuel...we simply don't need enough nukes to destroy the world 100 times over...

    I have also been an outspoken bull on uranium miners, seekingalpha.com/artic..., one of the most interesting, yet illiquid commodity sectors.
    Dec 16 05:51 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The big U.S. banks are considering defying the Fed and announcing capital return plans shortly after stress tests are released this afternoon, reports Bloomberg. The Fed wants the lenders to wait another week, but bank lawyers worry the plans will leak out. It's under discussion, JPM CFO Lake told an investor conference (transcript) Tuesday. XLF +0.6%[View news story]
    Increasing capital returns sounds like the worst idea ever. Believeable but sickening that bank stocks react well to this news.
    Mar 7 11:03 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2013 Consensus Coal Estimates: Comparing A Year Ago Vs. Today [View article]
    This is the kicker and at the crux of pricing these companies that I don't think is very well appreciated in the market. If folks are looking for a disjoint this is where it lies -- global demand for coal is robust, the currency it is priced in is being debased, yet the commodity is down significantly. The high inventory turnover rates can elicit sharp moves and I think anyone who ignores the overarching economics of energy and scarcity are going to miss big moves in the miners. On the other hand you have an imagined infinite amount natural gas, imagined energy cyclicality, and an imagined economic contraction.
    Dec 4 12:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ultra-Low Interest Rates Indicate U.S. Stocks Are Expensive [View article]
    The arguments aren't entirely one-sided and clear on this topic. James points out that yield (spreads) are useful as a forecasting mechanism, but conversely there is an issue of measuring demand indifference of capital in the system. Essentially I think we are seeing a ridiculously slanted biased toward U.S. denominated assets, especially bonds, and that is skewing the ratio. I would agree with his call for increasing convergence in global markets.

    This is an unbiased analysis on the topic: http://seekingalpha.co...
    Jul 26 09:20 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • PWC Zhong Tian: A Chinese Auditor With A Flawless Record [View article]
    The sentiment is so horrific around these stocks, there must be opportunities out there.

    Reflecting on this, American big 5 auditing firms have seemed to be a positive catalyst for these stocks, but hasn't really held up in practice. Auditor track records are a great fact to check, one I hadn't thought of doing, but seems so painfully obvious now! Really appreciate the article.
    Mar 30 08:08 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Predicting The Outcome In Europe And What It Means For U.S. Stocks [View article]
    More debt is only good as a solution is if enables the people to use it productively (innovate and create out of the jam), not kick back and be glad your government bought you a few more years of vacation.
    Nov 17 10:15 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Oil And Energy Stocks Are Set For A Massive Fall [View article]
    Chicken or the egg?

    Global demand has been almost perfectly flat over the past 5 years or so. Maybe us economists need to take our medicine and accept energy prices that actually would cause an erosion of demand, and therefore a less than impressive GDP number, buying time for people to innovate around the real issue here.

    Thanks for writing. This is obviously among the most important issues to monitor.
    Nov 11 08:35 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Xinyuan Real Estate Property Visit Highlights Promising Outlook [View article]
    Nicely done. I've been bullish on XIN, never done this level of due dilligence displayed here though lol.
    Sep 11 10:08 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The big U.S. banks are considering defying the Fed and announcing capital return plans shortly after stress tests are released this afternoon, reports Bloomberg. The Fed wants the lenders to wait another week, but bank lawyers worry the plans will leak out. It's under discussion, JPM CFO Lake told an investor conference (transcript) Tuesday. XLF +0.6%[View news story]
    The banks need to stay solvent. The idea behind a stress test is to be sure that banks have adequate capital to survive unexpected shocks. Returning that capital to shareholders would not result in a feedback cycle that helps the banks' solvency risk. Really ridiculous how quickly the industry forgets about being bailed out.
    Mar 7 11:50 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Business Growth Is Wilting [View article]
    Normalize it for trash loan class growth like student loans and median wage declines and you see that not only has the consumer gotten weaker at present, but more vulnerable and indebted going forward.

    Good economy. The Nikkei coughed up 75% on the heels of their debt over-extension, and they only had to triple their public debt to GDP to keep losses to that level.

    Instead of "lost decade", perhaps we should call the 00's the "luck decade".
    Feb 19 11:28 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • America's Big Bank $244 Trillion Derivatives Market Exposed [View article]
    It doesn't seem like any of the statistics from the article include ABS, and what fraction of the TBTF banks assets are shadowy, securitized loans.

    Maybe I'm confused about about how exactly they are defining derivative here, but it would seem like ABS would need to discussed in any serious systemic risk discussion. If the underlying loans are an indicator for these 'derivatives', charge-offs of ABS should not have peaked until late 2009 in most loan classes. www.federalreserve.gov...

    These ABS still aren't openly traded, so maybe they sneak past the OCC statistics, seems crazy not to account for them though.
    Sep 15 08:05 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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